The commercial real estate industry has spent the past two years bracing for the next wave of loan losses as elevated interest rates collided with loan maturities. Instead of a wave of payoffs, many loans are still working through extensions and modifications while asset values are being deliberated. Lenders know how to model foreclosure risk. Bankruptcy risk? That’s where the real losses hide. A Class A asset with Class C governance is a Class C risk. Foreclosure risk can be modeled. Expected losses predicted. Timelines are known by state. Recovery assumptions can be debated. Cash flows stress tested and ultimately approved by a committee. Even when outcomes are unpleasant, they are at least visible, quantifiable and expected. Bankruptcy is different — and far more dangerous for lenders. The gap between foreclosure and bankruptcy is where some of the largest loan losses are being created, and painful lessons learned. Counterintuitively, bankruptcy risk runs higher in non-judicial states like Georgia, where 60-day foreclosures create incentive for borrowers to file. In longer-timeline states like New York, foreclosures can stretch 18 months, giving borrowers the luxury of time. Those foreclosure timelines are generally well known and accepted by both sides, which makes outcomes predictable. …
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By Angela Adolph, Esq. of Kean Miller LLP Recent federal court decisions reveal diverging interpretations of how a landmark Supreme Court ruling on the Fifth Amendment’s takings clause affects state administration of unclaimed property. Taken together, the cases expose state governments to uncertainty and litigation risk over the constitutional limits of their authority. Property, Post-Tyler The current ambiguity reflects increased national scrutiny of state powers in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s pivotal 2023 decision in Tyler vs. Hennepin County, Minnesota. In that case, the county had seized a residential condominium and sold it for $40,000 to satisfy $15,000 in unpaid property taxes. The former owner sought the $25,000 in residual sale proceeds. The Supreme Court found that a taxpayer’s compensable interest in property applies to both the property and equity in the form of excess proceeds generated from a forfeiture sale of that asset. The decision clarified that economic value is property subject to the takings clause, which prohibits taking private property for public use without just compensation. In Tyler, the Supreme Court emphasized that the takings clause protects more than physical possession; it also protects a citizen’s economic value in property. A state cannot deprive a citizen …
By Aran McCarthy, president, FCA Healthcare providers and designers of those facilities are dedicated to creating spaces that meet the ever-growing demand for their services. Despite this desire, cities and towns nationwide are struggling to meet the needs of their growing populations. According to the Health Resources and Services Administration, as of January, there are more than 4,800 health professional shortage areas (HPSAs) for primary care facilities in the country. This disconnect between the need for care and the number of facilities equipped to support delivery of said care is on full display, and therein lies opportunity. Markets across the country are simultaneously dealing with a very different challenge; changes in consumer habits have created vacancies within retail real estate. In response to these trends, healthcare designers and system leaders have recognized that the adaptive reuse of former retail properties into “medical malls” offers a practical solution to increasing access to care. This approach prioritizes speed to market and cost efficiency for operators and also enhances community access without the long and costly timelines associated with new construction. Physical Synergy: Repositioning Retail for for Healthcare The physical features associated with many big-box retail locations make them particularly well-suited for healthcare …
DENVER — The U.S. retail real estate sector is continuing to move forward — but with caution. While the industry’s fundamentals remain relatively healthy, retailers and investors are evolving their strategies and adapting to shifting consumer behaviors, according to Integra Realty Resources (IRR), a commercial real estate valuation services firm based in Denver. IRR’s 2026 Retail Report explores the trends shaping the transformation of retail real estate, and where the sector is headed next. Consumer spending has shifted, largely because of macroeconomic machinations like inflation and slower job growth. Higher-income earners still have the ability to spend, but price-conscious consumers are increasingly trying to maximize value for their dollar at discount grocery and convenience stores. IRR notes that the retail sector posted 1.7 million square feet of positive net absorption nationally, which outpaced new construction more than twelvefold at 214,00 square feet. In the third quarter of 2025, the national vacancy rate slightly declined, coming in at 10.4 percent. Anthony Graziano, CEO of IRR, emphasizes that while leasing is healthy, store closures are masking the improvement. “E-commerce pressure, retailer bankruptcies and ongoing drugstore consolidation have released significant space back into the market, and until that churn settles, vacancy will look more …
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Total commercial mortgage origination volume is expected to reach $805.5 billion in 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The real estate finance organization announced the commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast at its 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo this week in San Diego. According to the CREF report, originations in 2026 are expected to reflect a 27 percent increase relative to 2025, which saw an estimated volume of $633.7 billion in commercial real estate and multifamily loans. This total would also be the most loan production in the industry since 2022 ($815.6 billion). Of the total, $399.2 billion in volume is predicted for the multifamily sector, which represents a 20.8 increase from 2025’s estimated total ($330.6 billion). Mike Frantantoni, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development, presented the findings, along with Reggie Booker and Judith Ricks, who are both associate vice presidents of CREF Research. “The [commercial real estate] lending market showed strength throughout 2025,” says Ricks. “Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year. The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is …
By Ryan McCullough, partner, managing director, Partners Real Estate Over the last decade, medical office buildings (MOBs) have become one of the most in-demand asset classes in commercial real estate. This shift did not happen by chance. Two major changes in the broader real estate market reshaped investors’ priorities and positioned medical office as a durable, long-term investment vehicle. The first was the rise of e-commerce. As consumers moved toward online shopping and same-day delivery, traditional retail properties faced elevated pressure. Investors began searching for asset types with consistent demand and limited exposure to technological disruption. As a result, MOBs, anchored by in-person healthcare delivery, benefited directly from this shift. The second was the COVID-19 pandemic. While retail and hospitality experienced sharp declines, MOBs proved far more resilient. Healthcare services remained essential, patient volumes recovered quickly and medical tenants continued operating. This period reinforced the reputation of MOBs as a defensive investment with stable demand through economic cycles. That surge in investor interest, however, has also led to confusion and, in some cases, unnecessary risk. Understanding the Diversity of Healthcare Assets As a commercial investment, healthcare is not a single, uniform product type. Properties vary widely in use, cost, complexity …
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Q4 2025 Demand Overview: Industrial and Multifamily Slowed, Office Stabilized, Retail Held Steady
Lee & Associates’ 2025 Q4 North America Market Report looks at diverging market demand across industrial, office, retail and multifamily spaces nationwide in the last quarter. Demand continued to soften for industrial spaces, while multifamily saw a reversal: decreased demand after seven consecutive quarters of strengthening. Office saw a slow increase in net absorption, but only after six years of negative absorption; retail demand was mixed. Industrial and retail spaces contended with tariff concerns, while all four types of commercial real estate saw either decreased or slowed rent growth in the final quarter of 2025. Lee & Associates’ full, detailed market report is available to read here. The overviews for the sectors below illustrate the market landscape through data on net absorption, leasing and development activity, sales transactions and rent growth, in addition to demand. Industrial Overview: Demand Falls Under Tariff Pressure Falling demand for industrial space continued in 2025 under the added strain of the United States’ aggressive trade and tariff policies affecting commercial property markets across North America. In the United States net absorption declined again in 2025 as tenant and rent growth fell to their lowest levels since the aftermath of the financial crisis. Meanwhile, inventory growth has been scaled back …
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Real Estate Industry Displays ‘Uneven Performance’ Heading Into 2026, Says Valuation Firm IRR
by John Nelson
DENVER — The U.S. commercial real estate industry is currently experiencing a mixed bag of demand generators and property-level performance, according to Integra Realty Resources (IRR), a commercial real estate valuation services firm based in Denver. IRR’s conclusions are expanded in Viewpoint 2026, the 33rd edition of the firm’s commercial real estate trends report. “As we enter 2026, we see that the economic environment is becoming more stable, but growth is slower and visibility remains limited,” says Nick Luettke, economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Inflation has eased from recent peaks and interest rates have started to trend lower, however, borrowing costs remain elevated relative to prior cycles. With labor markets softening and policy uncertainty still at play, economic conditions are supportive in some areas but restrictive in others, contributing to uneven performance across the U.S. commercial real estate market.” IRR partnered with Luettke for the macro-economic trends within the report and sought contributions from nearly 600 valuation advisors in the United States and Caribbean. The report delivers sector-specific insights along with three specialty property reports on healthcare and seniors housing, quick-service restaurants and self-storage. Some key findings and forecasts from the main report include: the sustained poor fundamentals within the highly fragmented …
Interview by John Nelson What a difference a year can make. At this time last year, real estate professionals displayed a sense of confidence and optimism about their 2025 prospects. This year, tariffs, government shutdowns and stubborn inflation have led to a general sense of unease for the year ahead. So finds Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026, the latest installment of the annual outlook for the commercial real estate industry that PwC and the Urban Land Institute (ULI) jointly publish. The organizations surveyed more than 1,700 stakeholders — including brokers, developers, investors and lenders — in this year’s report, which was adequately themed “Navigating the Fog.” REBusinessOnline recently caught up with Andrew Alperstein, real estate partner at PwC and editorial chair of the Emerging Trends report, to discuss creating the report, the resurgence of the Northeast and the health of several sectors, including seniors housing, self-storage and office. What follows is an edited interview: REBusinessOnline: Were there any surprises in the data or interview process as PwC and Urban Land Institute created ‘2026 Emerging Trends in Real Estate’? Andrew Alperstein: I’m involved in a lot of the interviews that we do, and I see the survey results and work with a …
By Robert Likes, president, community development lending and investment, affordable housing, KeyBank The nation’s housing crisis has reached a breaking point, pushing developers to rethink how and where new supply can be created. Among the most promising — and debated — solutions is the conversion of underutilized office buildings into much-needed affordable housing. On the surface, the concept seems straightforward: repurpose empty office space into homes in locations where demand is highest. In practice, however, these projects are anything but simple. Converting office buildings into livable, modern and affordable multifamily residences requires far more than reimagining floor plans. Success depends on choosing the right property, assembling a complex capital stack and deploying an experienced team capable of navigating regulatory, design and construction challenges. Done right, these conversions not only add critical housing supply but also breathe new life into urban centers struggling with high office vacancies. The Case for Conversions The United States has too much office space and not enough housing units, particularly for low-income households. Office-to-residential conversion projects help to equalize the supply-demand imbalance in both asset classes. According to the National Low-Income Housing Coalition, we are short 7.1 million rental homes for extremely low-income households. As a result, many …
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