By Jeff Lefko of Hanley Investment Group Real Estate Advisors For much of the last few decades, commercial real estate investors have operated under a simple assumption: interest rates rise, and cap rates rise with them. It is a straightforward relationship: intuitive, widely accepted and deeply embedded in underwriting models and investment committee discussions across the industry. Yet in the net lease sector, the connection between interest rates and cap rates has been far less direct than many believe. Since early 2022, the Federal Reserve has increased short‑term rates by more than 500 basis points, the fastest tightening cycle in four decades. Longer‑term borrowing costs remain elevated compared to the ultra-low-rate era of 2020 and 2021, even after the Fed’s rate cuts through 2025. Conventional thinking suggests net lease cap rates should have expanded sharply. Instead, cap rates across much of the single-tenant and multi-tenant net lease market have risen only modestly relative to the scale of the rate increases. There has been movement in certain segments, particularly in secondary markets, shorter lease terms and lower credit tenants, but the broader market has moved far less than the headline rate increases alone would suggest. This raises an important question for …
