Once upon a time, not so long ago, an industrial developer in Texas could pick an appropriately zoned spot on the map, throw up four walls and a roof, slap a few utilities in place and reasonably expect multiple tenants to quickly reach out and express a willingness to pay healthy rent for that space. That’s a colorful and simplified view of the pinnacle of the post-COVID Texas industrial market, but it’s not a farcical take. Between roughly early 2021 and mid-2023, phrases like “record-breaking,” “gangbusters” and “never seen anything like it,” were routinely used by brokers and owners alike to describe the state of industrial tenant demand. Combined with cheap debt and available equity, the ferocious need for warehouse, distribution and manufacturing space sparked absorption of older buildings and fresh capitalizations of new projects across all major markets. Tenants needed space yesterday, and supply chain disruptions — for developers and tenants — were simply a cost of doing business. And business was very, very good. Business is still good today. But the development landscape has undoubtedly shifted while the capital markets that govern said landscape have invariably cooled. New development, particularly in terms of equity, is significantly harder to …
