California

Whether it’s existing properties, new development, redevelopment or a repositioning effort, the key to success in San Diego’s retail market is to focus on customer experience. You have to make it attractive for them to come out from behind their computer screens, go outside, get some fresh air, look a total stranger in the eye and be social. The market is dominated by the coastal areas between Little Italy and Carlsbad. Primary core centers that are well located and occupied with strong daily needs anchors have the most fundamental stability. Secondary centers in beach-area submarkets have some vacancies but are attractive to tenants due to their proximity to the areas with the highest disposable incomes. Investors of tertiary centers, for the most part, are looking for ways to make their centers’ relevant, with forward-thinking owners investing capital to incorporate a mixed-use component like office, hotel or multifamily. Consumers in San Diego want a vibrant, inviting center with a superior customer experience immersed in beautiful landscape under the sun. The key is having a retail environment with premier anchors to get the customer to the center, along with a great mix of tenants and events to keep the customer at the …

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The outlook for San Diego’s office market is sunny and bright. Often considered a less costly option for office users as compared to other Southern California markets, San Diego holds consistent appeal for tenants seeking a coastal address where the weather is mild and the vibe is entrepreneurial and business friendly. The market is following the national trend of stronger occupancy rates and robust absorption, buoyed by a healthy economy. At 10.2 percent in the second quarter  —  the lowest level in nearly 14 years  —  San Diego’s office vacancy rate beats the national office vacancy rate of 12 percent  —  the lowest level in 18 years, despite construction. These fundamentals are demonstrating increased tenant demand. We’re continuing to see growth and expansion of office in submarkets throughout San Diego County. Sorrento Valley is one of the stronger office submarkets due to its centralized location and accessibility to major freeways. Other submarkets with heightened demand are Del Mar Heights, which is close to the ocean and suburban areas that house corporate executives, and Kearny Mesa, another major business center for the county. Carlsbad and Oceanside in North County and Chula Vista in South County are also popular choices. Oceanside and …

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While Proposition 10 — California’s proposal to strengthen rent control — was defeated last November, it somewhat stifled the multifamily investment sector in San Diego as investors worked to figure out the next wave of opportunity. But now that market is starting to bounce back. Total multifamily sales volume in 2018 was just under $2 billion. However, several signs pointed to a resilient San Diego market, including cap rates holding steady at 4.6 percent and an increase in pricing. The tides have begun to turn in the past few months, with numerous apartment deals on the market — more than we’ve seen at one time in the past few years. This is especially true in Downtown San Diego where a significant number of new merchant-built deals are expected to come to market, continuing throughout the year. These are luxury complexes, with some expected to fetch as much as $600,000 per unit. Six conventional multifamily sales (with at least 100 units) closed in the first half of this year, totaling $550 million. This is an increase over the four sales totaling $372.5 million in the first half of 2018. The median price per unit through mid-year was $258,200, although roughly one-quarter …

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The San Diego industrial market is still thriving under sunny skies. The 146-million-square-foot industrial base is more than 95 percent occupied. Businesses continue to gobble up space even though rents have grown 6 percent to 8 percent annually since 2015. Though industrial markets around the country continue to do well thanks to a rapidly expanding logistics sector, San Diego’s industrial growth is broader based. Major contributions come from the defense, tech, electronics, cross-border commerce and biotech sectors. San Diego has several large submarkets, each with its own set of opportunities and challenges. South County, which includes Otay Mesa, has seen the strongest rent growth during the current economic recovery. Since the beginning of 2018, more than 591,000 square feet of state-of-the-art distribution space has been completed, with all but 45,000 square feet fully leased up. Recent transactions in Otay include a 198,000-square-foot lease to Zucarmex and the 174,000-square-foot expansion of US Joiner Trident Marine. The vacancy rate for South County stands at 4.33 percent, slightly under the countywide rate. Vacancy in North County is running somewhat higher at 6.72 percent. This is mainly due to recent deliveries in Carlsbad. A little more than 2.2 million square feet of new space …

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San Diego continues to exhibit very strong fundamentals with a healthy and diversified economy, as well as a continued shortage of housing supply. The unemployment rate of 3.3 percent is below both the California and national unemployment rate. Tourism, biotech, healthcare, education, military/defense, drone manufacturing, business services, software and other high-tech industries have made San Diego a magnet for venture capital and other business investment, creating the jobs of the future. Amazon, Apple and several other high-profile technology companies have also announced expansions in San Diego. The region attracted $744 million in venture capital this past year alone. Local housing policies, which have been unfriendly to new development, have made it very expensive to build, thereby perpetuating the shortage of housing. This dynamic has continued to bode well for multifamily investment in the region. CBRE’s Apartment Market Report for the end of the second quarter illustrates the following year-on-year changes from 2018: • The vacancy rate moved 9 basis points to 3.6 percent • Rental rates increased by 2.9 percent • New construction deliveries dropped by 14 percent • Sales volume included 95 transactions with a total dollar volume of $476 million (compared to 32 sales transactions last year that …

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San Francisco has been a boom-and-bust market since the Gold Rush. The current intense scrutiny of the yield curve, combined with the stock market’s recent erratic behavior, has sent warnings of the next looming recession. Just how will this affect the office market? Fortunately for the Bay Area, not much. Today, several key factors insulate San Francisco from a severe downturn, unlike past cycles. Among them are Proposition M and a concentration of venture capital, highly skilled talent and some of the world’s largest companies. Since 1986, Proposition M has limited the amount of office development the city will authorize in any given year. The program aims to guard against typical boom-and-bust cycles. The San Francisco office market only includes 85 million square feet, as opposed to Manhattan or Houston, for example, which comprise 400 million and 240 million square feet, respectively. Manhattan currently has 12.4 million square feet of office space under construction, while San Francisco has 3 million square feet in the pipeline. The entitlement limit under Prop M has been reached, meaning no additional new projects can be approved until October when another 950,000 square feet will be allocated for the next year. At first glance, these …

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Northern California’s multifamily market has a strong development pipeline right now, but after 2020, it drops off dramatically. There is an increasingly toxic political climate in California, with measures like AB 1482 and the revival of Prop 10, which will likely throw a wrench in any planned development beyond 2020. Some of the most notable projects currently underway include Brooklyn Basin’s Orion in Oakland. The first 241 units out of a planned 3,700 have been completed. Brooklyn Basin is a $1.5 billion project that is reshaping the Oakland waterfront and transforming the area into a new, vibrant neighborhood. In San Jose, the area around the proposed Google downtown campus is also on everyone’s radar. The majority of current Bay Area development is concentrated in Oakland and Santa Clara County, with the latter currently experiencing a 4.57 percent vacancy rate. Market fundamentals, including proximity to jobs and a more welcoming environment toward multifamily development have attracted developers and renters alike to these two places. Developers Carmel Partner, Hanover and Holland have been particularly active in Oakland, as of late. Current conditions in Northern California have produced a tenant’s market, with an abundance of new units coming online at once. We are …

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Northern California’s retail real estate market is undergoing somewhat of a seismic shift. Traditional shopping centers, such as Serramonte Mall in Daly City and Hillsdale Mall in San Mateo, are seeing name-brand retailers like Payless Shoesource, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe closing stores. This has dictated a recalibration in leasing strategy. , These “prime” retail spaces are often successfully backfilled by business and lifestyle tenants like professional service firms, fitness centers, coffee shops, restaurants and entertainment centers  —  the sort of businesses that can regain foot traffic. This trend toward more lifestyle and entertainment tenants  —  often called experiential retail  —  can also be seen in the region’s vibrant market for new mixed-use developments. Multifamily communities in San Francisco, Cupertino, Santa Clara and Oakland will be delivered in the coming months. Many of these projects are urban infill, transit-oriented developments, which naturally offer strong street-level retail locations. In this setting, experiential retail works well for apartment residents and local foot traffic. Nearly 6 million square feet of new office has been proposed in downtown San Jose, which is driving strong retail interest from new restaurants and service retail. Vacancy rates for retail properties throughout the Bay Area have ticked up slightly, …

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Class A product is going off the market fast in Northern California’s industrial basin. Older product is sitting on the market longer, while mid-sized spaces are still the East Bay’s bread and butter. Net absorption has been pegged on a negative trend due to new construction and the volume of deals slowing down. Certain products are giving concessions to compete with newer product, while some landlords are trying to push the market limits to see how heavy tenant’s pockets really are. Several significant leases were signed in the East Bay during the second quarter of 2019. The largest deal of the quarter belonged to Service West, a furniture installer that signed a renewal and expansion totaling 252,021 square feet in San Leandro at 2350 Williams Street. Javelin Logistics, a logistics and distribution provider, also inked a new lease for 134,279 square feet at 7091 Central Ave. in Newark. Confluent Medical had the largest research and development deal of the second quarter, totaling 65,385 square feet. The material science tech company renewed at 47513 Westinghouse Drive in Fremont. The most significant investment sale of the second quarter occurred at 44100 and 44200 Osgood Road in Fremont. This is where Western Digital …

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The Los Angeles office market ended the first quarter with the average asking rent steady over the prior quarter. However, at $3.20 per square foot, the average asking rent remains the highest level on record, up 4.2 percent over the first quarter of 2018 and 15 percent above the prior peak reached in 2008. While the vacancy rate this quarter increased 30 basis points over the prior quarter, it is down 10 basis points from Q1 2018 at 10.6 percent. This is about where it was pre-recession in 2004. This rise in vacancy was the result of several large move-outs, including about 200,000 square feet in the South Bay and 50,000 square feet in the Central office markets. Leasing volume fell to 5.8 million square feet, down 19.6 percent from the prior quarter and 7.9 percent from Q1 2018. The rate of job growth is having some impact on the office market. Los Angeles County remains near full employment with the unemployment rate at 4.6 percent, one of the lowest rates on record. The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) notes the county added 59,000 jobs in 2018. The latest LAEDC jobs forecast points to a strong and steady …

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