After nearly three years of wrestling with oversupply, Raleigh-Durham’s multifamily market stands at an inflection point that informed investors have been quietly anticipating.
The numbers tell a compelling story: construction starts plummeted from around 15,000 units in 2022 to roughly 2,000 in 2024, a staggering 86 percent decline that’s creating the supply drought the market desperately needed.
The timing couldn’t be more critical. With an 18-month construction timeline followed by 12 to 16 months of lease-up process, the wave of deliveries from those record 2022 starts peaked in early-to-mid-2025. What comes next is perhaps the most interesting chapter in the Triangle’s multifamily story since our record rent jumps of 2021.
Mathematics of recovery
The construction cycle’s predictable timeline creates a unique visibility into market dynamics that astute capital allocators are already pricing in. The minimal 2024 starts are translating directly into minimal deliveries stretching from late 2025 through 2028 and beyond, which is essentially a three-year window of supply constraint that stands in stark contrast to the flood of new inventory and increased concessions that plagued 2023 to 2025.
Meanwhile, demand fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. Gross absorption hit approximately 11,000 units in 2024 and is tracking toward another 10,000 (estimated) in 2025 — both record years driven by continued migration from higher-cost markets including New York City, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Miami and Chicago, among others. This sustained inbound flow reflects the Triangle’s evolution from a regional center to a legitimate alternative for companies and individuals seeking both a more manageable cost of living and higher quality of life.
The convergence of dwindling supply and sustained absorption creates a mathematical certainty: the 8 to 12 weeks of concessions will begin evaporating as occupancy tightens. Property-level cash flows that have been pressured by both higher concession packages and elevated operating expenses should see meaningful improvement as landlords regain their pricing power.
Positioning for the turn
Institutional capital is already repositioning for this transition. Core and core-plus capital, which largely retreated during the oversupply period, is rumored to be preparing to return in force throughout 2026, supported by recent successful fundraising ventures. The appeal is straightforward: acquire stabilized assets at attractive basis points just as operating fundamentals begin improving. Investors have been worried they were “catching the falling knife” from 2023 to 2025 — that is about to change.
Simultaneously, buyer appetite for new construction deals has intensified. Many owners are “trading up” in vintage. They are selling older vintage assets in pursuit of newer and better quality to modernize their portfolio as costs for value-add improvements has risen, along with bad debt issues and fraud among lower quality properties.
Submarket dynamics
Across most Raleigh-Durham submarkets, current supply pipelines suggest the majority of excess inventory will be absorbed by the third quarter. This timeline varies slightly by geography. Areas like Cary, Morrisville and Downtown Raleigh, which saw particularly heavy development activity, may need an additional quarter or two.
However, submarkets with strong employment growth and limited recent deliveries, including portions of Central Raleigh and Wendell, are already showing early signs of tightening.
The absorption patterns also reveal something important about tenant preferences. Properties offering amenity packages and convenient access to employment centers are leasing faster and requiring fewer concessions.
What this means
The Raleigh-Durham multifamily market is approaching the catalyst investors have been waiting for. The oversupply that depressed returns and created operational headaches is working through the system in a predictable, measurable way. By mid-2026, most submarkets should see meaningful improvement in occupancy and rental rate growth.
For capital allocators, the opportunity lies not just in the timing but in the duration. Unlike markets experiencing temporary supply disruptions, the Triangle’s three-year development gap creates an extended window of favorable supply-demand dynamics. Combined with the region’s continued economic diversification and population growth, this sets up what could be the most attractive multifamily investment environment the market has seen since the early 2010s.
The supply drought is real, the timeline is clear and the capital is positioning accordingly. The only question now is who moves first.
— By John Mikels, managing director, JLL. This article was originally published in the January 2026 issue of Southeast Real Estate Business.