Just a few months after getting hammered by a pandemic-induced recession, the U.S. economy is rebounding faster than anticipated, according to Mark Vitner, managing director and senior economist with Well Fargo Securities. During his keynote address to kick off the 11th annual InterFace Carolinas conference on Oct. 1, Vitner said the consensus estimate suggests U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at annualized rate of 30 percent in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will officially unveil its first estimate for third-quarter GDP on Thursday, Oct. 29. If realized, the gain would nearly offset the 31.4 percent decline in GDP in the second quarter. “This recession is the worst we’ve ever seen in terms of job loss and declines in GDP, but it was the shortest we’ve ever seen,” said Vitner. “All the decline we saw was in the second half of March and the first half of April. Since April 15 we’ve been recovering.” Employers added 661,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in September, which was nearly 200,000 jobs below the expectations of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Still, the economy has recovered 11.4 million of the 22 million jobs lost since the beginning of …
Conference Coverage
Lending Environment Still Rocky Due to Pandemic, Say Panelists at InterFace Carolinas
by Alex Tostado
The lending environment for commercial real estate has started to bounce back in recent months, but there is still hesitation to close deals across most property sectors. There are some attractive opportunities for lenders in today’s climate, such as multifamily and grocery-anchored retail. That was the sentiment expressed during the virtual InterFace Carolinas panel, titled “Capital Markets Update: When and What will Unfreeze the Lending and Financing Environment?” France Media Inc.’s InterFace Conference Group and Southeast Real Estate Business hosted the event Thursday, Oct. 1. Before the coronavirus pandemic caused a nationwide shutdown, the lending environment was the most competitive it had been in recent memory, according to Aaron Derby, managing director at Benefit Street Partners. “The world went from a competitive market to a shutdown overnight,” said Derby. “Capital markets are very temperamental.” Joining Derby on the panel was Hugh Allen, senior vice president and commercial real estate regional director for TD Bank; Steve Clikas, vice president of investments at Protective Life Insurance Co.; Preslava Kovatchevska, director multifamily production and sales at Freddie Mac; and panel moderator Matthew Rocco, president and national production manager for Grandbridge. CMBS market rebounding Derby says that while his firm continued lending in April …
Landlords, users and brokers throughout the Houston retail market are re-tooling their properties and operating practices to stay afloat amid the COVID-19 pandemic, introducing ways of doing business that may persist long after the public health crisis has subsided. A panel comprising retail leasing, development and investment sales professionals in Houston convened on Tuesday, Oct. 6 to discuss specific ideas and methodologies that have been put into practice as COVID-19 rocks the world of brick-and-mortar retail. Shopping Center Business and Texas Real Estate Business, two magazines published by Atlanta-based France Media Inc., hosted the event. Prior to the pandemic, social events that activated open public spaces helped landlords to promote their tenants’ businesses and to bring traffic to their centers. With public health protocols precluding many of these events from happening, owners and tenants alike have had to think outside the box. New Practices Sustain Business No retail category has seen this trend displayed more visibly than the restaurant sector. Emily Durham, partner and director of hospitality services at Waterman Steele Real Estate Advisors and a longtime tenant rep specialist for restaurant owners, identified several new practices that have helped restaurants stay above water. “The sit-down and fine dining restaurants have had the …
LOS ANGELES — The retail industry is evolving, and the tried and true formulas for development are no longer enough to attract shoppers. The convenience of e-commerce is cutting into purchases once almost exclusively entrusted to local strip centers, and consumer tastes are evolving to demand better experiences from the centers they choose to shop at with their discretionary dollars. Joseph Pine, author of “The Experience Economy,” shared these thoughts during a keynote address on the importance of staging retail centers. The speech was delivered at France Media’s sixth annual Entertainment Experience Evolution conference at the JW Marriott L.A. Live in Los Angeles earlier this month. “What people want today are experiences — they are their own distinct economic offering,” said Pine. “When you use goods as props, and services as the stage to engage each individual in an inherently purposeful way, you’re able to create a memory, which is the hallmark of experience.” In today’s economy, retailers and shopping centers are competing for a visitor’s time, attention and money. When assessing one’s property and its success level within the market, Pine noted it’s important to answer three key questions. “You need to consider whether or not your customers are …
LOS ANGELES — In today’s retail environment, adding local food and beverage concepts, entertainment venues and landscaped parks seems like a surefire way to revitalize a dated shopping center. A trickier task is determining how exactly these nontraditional concepts boost the bottom line. A panel of retail owners and service providers weighed in on this topic at France Media’s sixth annual Entertainment Experience Evolution conference at the JW Marriott L.A. Live in Los Angeles last week. “This panel started because I’m a bit of a skeptic as it relates to entertainment concepts,” says moderator Joyce Storm, president of Storm Advisors. “Investors don’t like when you discuss entertainment experiences; developers and owners have trouble making sense of where they should put their dollars and cents, time, energy and resources. It’s important to understand what to expect in terms of results from entertainment concepts and placemaking in order to determine the money that should be funneled into them.” For Steven Levin, founder and CEO of Centennial Real Estate, the challenge and opportunity in reimagining dated, traditional malls to fit the needs of today’s shopper is in the underwriting. “Transforming a traditional mall into a mixed-use destination provides an opportunity and a challenge …
SAN DIEGO — The U.S. economy is likely to take a hit this year from the effects of geopolitical uncertainty and a global recession in the manufacturing sector, according to Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). His forecast calls for U.S. GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2020, down from 2.2 percent in 2019, and for job growth to dip from a monthly average of 175,000 last year to 150,000 this year. The unemployment rate, which currently stands at 3.6 percent and is near a 50-year low, is expected to reach 3.9 percent by year’s end. The wave of tumultuous events on the world stage have come fast and furious, the veteran economist observed. “Just recently you had the situation with the assassination of [Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani] and ballistic missiles being fired across the Middle East. Now we have got the coronavirus. We just concluded an impeachment trial. We have a presidential election. The trade wars of 2018 and 2019 are perhaps simmering down a little bit, but still a concern and still impacting a lot of decisions by private actors out there.” Such conflicts pose a threat to what has been a “remarkable” run …
ATLANTA — Multifamily developers and investors keep an ever-watchful eye on job and population growth in their target markets. In the Southeast, where several metros are seeing gains in those demand generators, which markets stand out? That was a central question posed during the regional panel discussions at France Media’s 10th annual InterFace Multifamily Southeast conference. The event took place Tuesday, Dec. 3 at The Whitley in Atlanta’s Buckhead district. The event drew 384 attendees in the multifamily real estate sector. The short list for the various speakers’ favorite markets include the usual suspects, namely Atlanta, Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte and Raleigh. These markets all have a recent track record of strong employment growth, which is traditionally a reliable indicator of multifamily demand. Norm Radow, CEO of Atlanta-based The RADCO Cos., warned though that not all jobs are created equally, which has long-term implications for the new apartment communities coming on line. “The majority of the people hired are on the low end of the wage scale and the few making a lot of money are tipping the average up,” said Radow during the conference’s Atlanta Market Update panel. “The workers are there to rent them, but we’re building a product …
ATLANTA — It’s something that everybody wants: Increased cash flow. Multifamily operators gave a tutorial on the 20 best ways in which their firms are boosting net operating income (NOI) during France Media’s 10th annual InterFace Multifamily Southeast conference. The event took place on Tuesday, Dec. 3 at The Whitley hotel in Atlanta’s Buckhead district. The full-day conference attracted nearly 400 multifamily professionals from across the Southeast. Ed Wolff, chief revenue officer for multifamily lease insurance firm LeaseLock Inc., moderated the operations discussion. The panelists included Sharon Hatfield, chief operating officer of CF Real Estate Services LLC; Lisa Taylor, senior managing director of client services at Greystar; and Marcie Williams, president of RKW Residential. The discussion was bifurcated between how these operators are driving NOI by increasing/creating revenue and minimizing expenses. Hatfield said that operators can experience the most immediate results by focusing on the revenue stream at the property level. “In today’s challenging environment, it’s better to try to approach the revenue side than it is expenses,” said Hatfield. “Revenue can impact the value of the asset so much.” The panelists’ best revenue-boosting methods ranged from the practical to the futuristic. Greystar’s Taylor said that her firm has partnered …
ATLANTA — Increased job growth in major markets throughout the Southeast and lower borrowing costs have quelled fears of a 2020 recession, and multifamily investors are feeling confident going into the new year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported that the U.S. economy generated 266,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell 10 basis points to 3.5 percent. Healthy job growth in major population centers drives heightened demand for housing, particularly in the multifamily sector. Speakers at France Media’s InterFace Multifamily Southeast conference shared their perspectives on the multifamily investment market of 2019 and their predictions for 2020. The conference, which took place Tuesday, Dec. 3 at The Whitley hotel in the Buckhead district of Atlanta, attracted 384 industry professionals. “Multifamily is a pretty much tried-and-true section of the real estate investment market,” said Steven Shores, president and CEO of Pollack Shores. “We have very low volatility compared to other sectors, and if you’re trying to make an allocation between some sort of alternative asset versus cash or bond portfolio, we look pretty attractive from a risk-investment perspective.” Shores noted that existing assets are trading at cap rates anywhere between 4 to 5 percent, depending on the location, …
ATLANTA — Much of today’s new apartment projects feature a ground-floor retail component. But developers at France Media’s 10th annual InterFace Multifamily Southeast conference actually expressed concern about this type of development approach. “The overall retail market is just not what it once was,” said Richard Aaronson, CEO of Atlantic Residential. “A lot of municipalities are recognizing that ground-floor retail in a residential building is not ideal.” In other words, if there is difficulty leasing the retail space, a bunch of empty storefronts doesn’t bode well for the overall project. Aaronson said his company is implementing ground-floor retail on a limited basis and is instead incorporating first-floor apartments and community spaces. Aaronson spoke on a panel titled, “What Makes a Development Project Successful in Today’s Market?” Joining Aaronson on the panel was Harvey Wadsworth, managing director with Mill Creek Residential; Peter Joerss, director of acquisitions for PointOne Holdings; Jason Doornbos, executive managing director for Landmark Properties; and John Leonard, first vice president with Marcus & Millichap who served as moderator. The conference took place Tuesday, Dec. 3 at The Whitley in Atlanta’s Buckhead district and welcomed 384 attendees. Complicating matters, however, is that some cities require new apartment developments to …