PHILADELPHIA — If you own a piece of land that you think might be suitable for a seniors housing development, what is your best course of action to determine the feasibility of such a project? “The first step is to do a desktop study,” advises Cheri Clarke-Doyle, senior vice president of Trammell Crow Co. In other words, conduct a supply-demand analysis that projects demand based on current supply and population growth within a radius of five to seven miles, or a 15- to 20-minute drive time. If those analytics turn out to be favorable and help justify the site to the prospective operator or equity partner, proceed to the next step, urges Clarke-Doyle, who is responsible for sourcing and overseeing new healthcare, wellness and science development in the Northeast for Trammell Crow. “Once you get the results of that desktop study, I think you go into other factors relative to the site. Those factors include the size of the site: Will it support what you want to build? If you’re doing a specific prototype, will the prototype fit on that piece of land? It’s important to go through several checks on the land before you go into a more detailed study.” The …
Conference Coverage
From Confident Buyers to Tech Solutions, Six Trends Emerge from InterFace Multifamily Southeast
by John Nelson
The runway is still long for multifamily real estate in the current cycle as investors and developers continue to pour money into the space. The apartment industry took center stage during the ninth-annual InterFace Multifamily Southeast conference on Tuesday, Nov. 27. Produced by InterFace Conference Group, the full-day event drew more than 400 multifamily real estate professionals from around the Southeast. The conference, held at The Whitley hotel in Atlanta’s Buckhead district, featured panel discussions on a variety of topics, including finance, investment sales, new development and operations, and highlighted the region’s most active markets. While attendees were able to glean numerous takeaways from the event’s more than 50 speakers, the following are six key trends that apartment professionals are monitoring heading into the new year. 1.) Investment to remain robust in 2019 During the conference’s state of the market panel, Josh Champion of Carroll Organization and Jim Street of PGIM Real Estate said that their firms were net buyers in 2018 and plan to be net buyers again next year. Coincidentally, within an hour after the panel concluded their companies announced a $600 million joint venture acquisition of three multifamily portfolios. “Real estate is still a favored asset class, …
PHILADELPHIA — Standalone memory care facilities were the darling of seniors housing three to five years ago, but more recently this property segment has been tagged as the dog of the industry amid overbuilding concerns and lease-up challenges. “They get bashed at every conference,” says J.P. LoMonaco, president of Valuation & Information Group headquartered in Culver City, California. The conventional wisdom is that many investors and lenders have soured on the product. Not so fast, says Wendy Nowokunski, president of Northbridge Cos., who cautions against making blanket statements about this specialized niche within seniors housing. “Actually, standalone memory care is our darling.” The private company based in Burlington, Massachusetts, operates 17 seniors housing communities serving over 2,000 residents across New England. Five properties in Northbridge’s portfolio are standalone memory care communities, including three in Maine and two in Massachusetts, each ranging in size from 60 to 70 units. “Those communities run at 100 percent occupancy all the time. We have waiting lists,” says Nowokunski, who adds that Northbridge has established partnerships with local hospitals to meet the needs of seniors with memory issues. “It all comes down to programming and knowing the disease process, and having the right people in the …
InterFace Keynote Address: Panic Over E-Commerce’s Effect on Retail Real Estate is Full of Myths
by Jeff Shaw
NEW YORK CITY — News headlines such as “Retail Is Dead” have painted a picture of desolation and destruction for the current state of retail real estate in the United States. However, while e-commerce “is the most discussed, it’s also the most misunderstood,” according to Melina Cordero, global head of retail research for CBRE. Cordero’s remarks came during her keynote address at the InterFace Net Lease conference held on Wednesday, Oct. 3. The ninth annual event drew 265 real estate professionals to the New York City Bar Association. Cordero listed a series of myths about retail and e-commerce that lead to apocalyptic headlines that she says are simply not accurate. Myth 1: E-Commerce is Taking Over To illustrate her point, Cordero displayed a chart tracking growth, showing e-commerce outpacing in-store sales. However, when the actual sale totals rather than growth percentages are compared, only 10 percent of retail sales are online. Furthermore, 50 percent of online retail sales go to companies with a brick-and-mortar presence. “Less than 4 to 5 percent of total retail sales are going to online-only players. This is a very different picture than what we’re usually presented,” said Cordero. She cited specific retailers who, while known …
DALLAS — Multifamily development in the United States has been on a tear over the last five years, increasing competition for renters and making lease renewal rates a casualty of war. According to an August report from rentcafe.com, American multifamily developers delivered about 318,000 new units in 2017, more than double the deliveries from five years earlier. New multifamily construction between 2014 and 2016 averaged about 275,000 new units per year. That’s more than double the yearly average of 136,000 units per year that were delivered during the down years of 2011 through 2013. In addition, according to the National Apartment Association (NAA), the U.S. will need to add about 4.6 million new units by 2030 to keep up with demand. In most urban markets, this pace of development has either led to concessions or discounts on rent. This problem is compounded by the fact that in high-growth markets, renters usually have access to newer, competing multifamily product within a few miles. So long as they’re willing to move, renters can in theory receive new rounds of concessions from year to year. To recoup income lost from concessions, as well as to post strong occupancies if a property is put …
DALLAS — The past 12 to 18 months have seen a strong uptick in the number of mergers and consolidations among healthcare providers in the United States, and industry experts are still trying to figure out how this activity will impact cash flows, pricing and cap rates for healthcare properties. A recent report from the Health Research Institute at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) identified 255 healthcare merger and acquisition deals in the second quarter of 2018 alone. That figure actually represented a 7.3 percent decline in this kind of deal volume from the first quarter of 2018. The PwC report noted that healthcare providers are facing declining revenues driven in part by lower reimbursement rates for both public and private payors, forcing them to cut costs to stop the bleeding. Mergers, partnerships and strategic alliances provide conduits for this kind of cost cutting. Larger deals proposed or closed this year include the $69 billion merger between Aetna and CVS, as well as Cigna’s $67 billion acquisition of pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts. Rite Aid also cast merger bids with Walgreens and Albertsons, though both failed to reach completion. And on Oct. 2, two Texas-based healthcare providers, Baylor Scott & White and Memorial …
DALLAS — After experiencing exceptional rent growth between 2014 and 2017, it may be time for developers of multifamily product in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex to shift their attention from the revenue side of the equation to the expense side. According to CoStar Group, average asking rents across DFW rose by about 12 percent between 2014 and 2017. The year-over-year rent growth of 6.3 percent that occurred between 2014 and 2015 marked a 10-year high for the market and kicked new development into high gear. Now, however, the metroplex has become inundated with new multifamily supply — nearly 22,000 new units delivered in the past 12 months. Rent growth has slowed to about 2.2 percent year-to-date and vacancy is inching upward. But rather than pump the brakes on building, developers should be looking for ways to cut costs, not push rents, if they want to maintain their current levels of profitability. Such was the conclusion of six multifamily developers who gathered at the seventh annual InterFace Multifamily Texas conference on Sept. 26. Held at the Westin Galleria hotel in Dallas, the event drew roughly 250 attendees. Matt Brendel, divisional president and managing partner at Irving, Texas-based JPI, was the …
ATLANTA — The pace of seniors housing development has accelerated sharply in recent years. Approximately 396 seniors housing properties came online or opened in the top 100 metro areas in the country from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2017, according to data from Plante Moran Living Forward, a senior living development consulting firm. During the two years prior, about 596 communities opened. What’s more, approximately 65 percent of those newly added properties were from operators that only had two or fewer properties, according to Dana Wollschlager, practice leader for the firm and moderator of the development panel at the 2018 InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast conference. The significant number of developments and new entrants to the seniors housing space were major discussion points for the panel, which took place on Wednesday, Aug. 29 at the Westin Buckhead in Atlanta. The one-day conference drew nearly 520 developers, lenders, investors and operators in the senior living space. Joining Wollschlager on the panel were Richard Ackerman, managing partner of Big Rock Partners; Jeff Arnold, chief operating officer of United Group of Cos.; Blanding Beatty, chief investment officer of Traditions Senior Living; Andy Isakson, managing partner of Isakson Living; and …
The InterFace Phoenix Industrial conference and networking event was held on Wednesday, Sept. 12, featuring three panel discussions. The brokerage panel, moderated by Rob Martensen, executive vice president with Colliers International, featured a lively discussion about activity in local submarkets and a recap of the reasons Phoenix is winning deals over Southern California and Nevada. Industrial Activity in Arizona Microsoft recently purchased 267 acres for a data center in the West Valley, said Anthony Lydon, national director, Industrial Supply Chain & Logistics Solutions with JLL. Qualified data centers receive waivers on personal property tax for 10 years, Lydon said, noting that each rack in a data center is approximately $1 million in personal property, so data centers are certainly enjoying the benefits of locating in Arizona. Arizona will also be a huge winner in the manufacturing sector, Lydon added. He cited Colorado-based food packaging provider Ball Corp. as an example of a company that was looking at Mexico for space before the 2016 election but has since opened a plant in the West Valley submarket of Phoenix due to the strategic location between Mexico and Southern California. Minnesota-based Andersen Windows & Doors is buying 64 acres from Opus to build …
With moderator John Lotardo, senior vice president of Commonwealth Land Title Co., at the helm, owners and developers dove into a discussion about Phoenix’s multifamily market — current trends, future activity and more — at the InterFace Phoenix Multifamily Conference on Sept. 11 in Scottsdale. And the main consensus for the Phoenix market? It’s all about the job growth, absorption is steady and the current activity should continue for the next few years. Decrease in Homeownership, Increase in Jobs Overall the marketplace has experienced an increase in job growth, particularly throughout the workforce sector, resulting in a steady need for multifamily housing options across the area. “Homeownership has gone down approximately 12 percent overall and jobs are increasing,” noted John Rials, executive vice president of Western Wealth Capital. This trend is creating a more complex demand for housing throughout the market. While there is an increase in jobs, it’s important to note that the majority of those jobs are workforce-level. Developers and owners need to be cognizant of rent ceilings for residents, explained Nicole Wray, senior director with Greystar. New Audiences, New Exposure Along with meeting the needs of the continuing influx of renters, owners and developers are navigating the …