By Taylor Williams ATLANTA — Depending on the era in which you came of age and the general experiences you’ve had in life, the notion that “things can always get worse” can be easy to endorse. As it pertains to commercial lending and borrowing, the consensus narratives that have prevailed ever since the Federal Reserve began jacking up interest rates in early 2022 have largely followed the same script: “Hunker down.” “Survive till ’25.” “Delay and defer.” In other words, do whatever you have to do to avoid the sting of the 11 interest rate hikes totaling 500-plus basis points that have been enacted over the past 20 months, raising the federal funds rate from near zero percent to its current target range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. According to data compiled by Walker & Dunlop, the average all-in interest rate on a 10-year, fixed-rate Fannie Mae mortgage — assuming a conservative structure of 55 percent loan-to-value — is roughly 6.25 percent. Since rate hikes began, multifamily lenders across various markets have stated that leverage ratios in the neighborhood of 55 to 60 percent have become the norm, all other factors being held equal. Cloud of Uncertainty Despite some seemingly …
Conference Coverage
ATLANTA — Multifamily developers are bracing for the uncertainty of 2024 as their projects are delivering into a landscape where new supply is outpacing demand by a significant margin. In the third quarter, a total of 114,000 new multifamily units were delivered in the United States compared to 82,100 absorbed, according to research from CBRE. The absorption figure is technically rebounding as it represents the highest quarterly figure since early 2022, but there is still a sizeable delta compared to supply growth. The trailing four-quarter total for U.S. multifamily deliveries stands at 376,500 units, which CBRE reports is the highest since it began tracking the metric 27 years ago. “This is historic supply,” said Todd Oglesby, managing director of Alliance Residential Co.’s Southeast division. “It’s at the highest levels since the 1980s.” Oglesby made his comments as part of a panel of developers at France Media’s InterFace Multifamily Southeast, an annual conference held on Thursday, Nov. 30 at the Westin Buckhead hotel in Atlanta. Chad Riddle, senior project manager at Bohler, moderated the panel entitled “Given the Interest Rate & Debt Market Environment, How Are Developers Making New Projects Pencil?” Throughout the full-day conference, several panelists mentioned that their firms’ …
Bid-Ask Spread Continues to Throttle Down Multifamily Investment Sales, Say InterFace Panelists
by Jeff Shaw
ATLANTA — Investors in the multifamily sector are having trouble getting deals done in 2023, and 2024 isn’t looking to start out much better. The culprit is the bid-ask spread — the gap between what sellers believe their property is worth and what buyers are willing to pay. That’s according to a panel of multifamily investors, several of whom described transacting in the present environment to be a “slog.” The panel, titled “Investment Outlook: When will the Bid-Ask Gap Narrow, the Market Stabilize and Transactions Resume in Earnest?,” was held yesterday at France Media’s InterFace Multifamily Southeast conference at the Westin Buckhead in Atlanta. The panel included Brian Grant, senior vice president of acquisitions of Equity Residential; John Leonard, first vice president/regional manager of Marcus & Millichap; Eddy O’Brien, managing partner and co-founder of Blaze Capital Partners; Matt Trammell, chief financial officer of Wood Partners; Kristina Lynn, senior director, of housing and alternative investments in the Americas at Nuveen Real Estate; and moderator Paul Berry, president and chief operating officer of Mesa Capital Partners, who recently joined the firm from CBRE. Berry kicked off the discussion by noting that “the bid-ask spread affects all of us.” While he noted that …
By Taylor Williams Tenant demand and availability of capital for industrial deals are still healthy in Texas, but end users and developers are demonstrating a clear push for smaller footprints in their leases and projects. This shift reflects a marked departure from recent years, when massive speculative facilities were financed without hesitation or preleasing and industrial users had little choice but to accept staggering levels of rent growth. Spikes in interest rates bear some, but not all, blame for this emerging dynamic. Local and regional banks tend to be go-to debt providers on industrial projects, and these groups take defensive positions with their capital flows during high interest rate environments. And while reliance on e-commerce and third-party distribution remains deeply ingrained in consumer preferences, users still see value in rightsizing their footprints in today’s market. As such, the industrial landscape is changing in Texas, where exceptionally strong population growth nonetheless ensures that the sector remains on very solid footing overall. But changes are undoubtedly happening. Large-scale spec facilities are being swapped for smaller build-to-suits, and manufacturing deals are taking up a larger share of the development pipeline. Lenders are tightening leverage and demanding more upfront equity for projects that they …
By Channing Hamilton ATLANTA — Today’s seniors housing market is a tough one, characterized by an inflationary environment and high operational costs. Amid the challenges the industry currently faces, owner-operators within the sector must focus on controlling expenses, such as labor and insurance, to maintain profitability — and earlier is better when it comes to planning to mitigate these expenses. Eric Mendelsohn, CEO and president of National Health Investors, a REIT that specializes in seniors housing, emphasized the importance of labor market analysis in the underwriting stage of operations. “Labor is a key element of expense structure in the building,” he said. “Before, we could give it a cursory look. Now, it’s important to really drill down into a market. “We pay closer attention to labor expense and availability,” he continued. “We’ll see what our competitors are paying, and then see what other industries such as retail and fast food in the area are paying. If Target and TGI Fridays are unable to find labor, that’s an indicator that you’re going to have a problem.” Mendelsohn’s remarks came during the keynote address at the 10th annual InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast, a networking and information conference hosted by France Media’s InterFace …
By Taylor Williams Brick-and-mortar retail has quietly, yet emphatically resurrected itself from the e-commerce- and COVID-induced death knell, bolstered by multiple years of low supply growth that have put a premium on quality space and allowed landlords to zero in on what truly constitutes a winning concept. This notion is inherently subjective and difficult to quantify. But in Dallas-Fort Worth, retail owners and operators say that authenticity — as defined by uniqueness of the offerings and adherence to and reflection of local culture — is paramount to success. From the presentation and packaging of products and services to utilization of local architectural styles to creating a certain shopping or dining ambiance, the ability to capture the authenticity of the market is crucial. Consumers and landlords can afford to be choosy, and they won’t waste time at stores, restaurants or entertainment venues that feel cookie-cutter, phony or out-of-place. But retail landlords can ill-afford to do deals with tenants that simply look the part but lack the financial ability to pay rents, which are growing in urban locations where availability of space remains tight. Monetary due diligence remains critical, but as often as not, there is considerable overlap between the financial solvency …
ATLANTA — Charlie Jennings, chief development officer with Vero Beach, Fla.-based Harbor Retirement Associates, said he would challenge the “Stay alive until ‘25” mantra that some real estate professionals are touting amid today’s economic uncertainty. The phrase is a play on the late billionaire investor Sam Zell’s remarks amid the downturn in 1991 when he coined the mantra “Stay alive until ’95.” “I do not agree with that at all; that insinuates that we’re just going to sit on our hands as an industry and wait for somebody else to turn the lights back on,” said Jennings. “Our industry will continue to grow, push forward and be innovative, and build relationships outside the normal REIT and private equity model that we’ve all grown accustomed to.” Jennings’ remarks came during the development outlook panel at the 10th annual InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast, a conference hosted by France Media’s InterFace Conference Group and Seniors Housing Business on Wednesday, Aug. 16 at the Westin Buckhead in Atlanta. Todd Hudgins, senior vice president of senior living for Madison, Wisconsin-based ERDMAN, moderated the panel. Jennings went on to say that while it is tough to get a deal done right now, eventually it will get …
Seniors Housing Transaction Activity Will Not Return to Normal Levels This Year, Says InterFace Panel
by John Nelson
ATLANTA — One of the central questions of the investment panel at InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast was: Will transaction activity return in the fourth quarter? When Brooks Blackmon, panel moderator and executive managing director of Blueprint Healthcare Real Estate Advisors, asked the question, there was a quick response from the panel — “no.” “Return to what?” asked Kelly Sheehy senior managing director of Artemis Real Estate Partners. “Higher than today? Yes. Compared to 2019? No, it’s going to take time.” InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast is an annual conference hosted by France Media’s InterFace Conference Group, Seniors Housing Business and Southeast Real Estate Business. The event was held on Wednesday, Aug. 16 at the Westin Buckhead Atlanta hotel. Blackmon moderated the discussion. The panelists agreed that the fly in the ointment that has stifled investment sales the past few quarters has been the rapid runup in interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.3 percent at the time of this writing, which is the highest level since 2007. The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and federal funds rate, two short-term benchmark interest rates, have risen by more than 500 basis points in roughly 16 months. “Until debt markets improve, you’re …
By Taylor Williams HOUSTON — Industry professionals say that while the fundamentals that underlie multifamily properties in major Sun Belt markets are quite healthy, the broader conditions of the U.S. capital markets are so choppy and disruptive that lending volumes are depleted across the board. The dearth of deals isn’t exclusively attributable to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which has now happened 11 times in 17 months. The nation’s central bank is now targeting a short-term benchmark range from roughly 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level since 2001. Underwriting standards are tightening as owners reckon with serious increases in property taxes and insurance, among other items. Major banks are scaling back their originations in favor of keeping more reserves on hand in anticipation of exposure to defaults on office loans that are coming due within the next 12 to 18 months. The wounds of the collapses of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March are still fresh, and the country is scarcely a year removed from what will assuredly be a heated and divisive presidential election. For debt providers, the combined effect of those factors is major reluctance to transact. Lenders and investors have largely shifted …
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Suburbs Are King for Carolinas Multifamily Market, Say InterFace Panelists
by John Nelson
Suburban markets in the Carolinas are the big winners in the current multifamily landscape, both from a new development and rent growth perspective, according to the various panelists at the InterFace Carolinas Multifamily conference. Hosted by InterFace Conference Group and Southeast Real Estate Business, the annual event took place on May 25 at the Hilton Charlotte Uptown hotel. At the end of the leasing and operations panel, moderator Mike Susen, senior director of real estate at Greystar, asked the property managers on stage if they could manage any product type in any Carolinas market, which they would choose. The consensus was their dream assignments lie in the suburbs. “Let’s do mid-rise suburbs, something out toward Matthews or the Mint Hill area,” said Amanda Kitts, senior vice president of property management at Northwood Ravin, referring to the suburbs of Charlotte. “I’d want to do product that those markets haven’t seen yet.” “Suburban product is still really strong right now,” added Bob Moore, co-founder and CEO of FCA Management LLC. “Tertiary markets are going to surprise you. You’ll see opportunities to do some deals where there has been a lot lower supply.” Property managers are keen to handle suburban communities because those …