The mass of multifamily loan maturities that has peaked over the past few years remains elevated and is destined to impact the industry in 2026. Coupled with current elevated interest rates, and what accompanies them, these loans pose challenges to owners faced with the need to refinance. These hurdles are proving too difficult for some owners who secured their current property loans during the record low-interest rate period several years ago and who are now over-levered. While the maturity wall did subside a bit in 2025, that doesn’t mean the 2026 volume of maturities isn’t sizable. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes, 13 percent of mortgages backed by multifamily properties will mature in 2026 — a wave that will inarguably lead to a surge in transaction activity, whether successful refinances or forced sales. How We Got Here Interest rates in the United States reached an all-time record low during the 2020 – 2021 period. Many apartment owners capitalized on the inexpensive cost of debt and financed their properties for extremely low rates. However, in the years since, the country has battled serious bouts of inflation which, in turn, have caused the …
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Lee & Associates’ Report: Industrial and Multifamily Slow, Office Recovers, Retail Demand Holds
by Jaime Lackey
The headline numbers in commercial real estate rarely tell the full story. First-quarter 2026 data is a case in point: Lee & Associates reports that industrial and multifamily are slowly absorbing a historic supply surge, office is staging an uneven recovery, and retail is contending with a shortage of quality space rather than a glut of it. Here’s a sector-by-sector look at where U.S. commercial real estate stands heading into the rest of the year — and which markets are bucking the trend. Sponsored: Download Lee & Associates’ 2026 Q1 North America Market report. Industrial Overview: Logistics Demand Moderates; Small Space Needs Gain There was continued weakness in the first quarter across North American industrial markets. The slowing has produced an overhang of newly delivered speculative logistics space, while rent growth has fallen to virtually nil. In the United States, net absorption totaled 32.8 million square feet in Q1, or 0.2 percent of the 19.3-billion-square-foot inventory. It was the lowest rate of tenant growth in more than a decade aside from the 17.6-million-square-foot contraction in Q2 following the U.S.’s initial tariff announcements. The overall vacancy rate in Q1 settled at 7.5 percent, which has nearly doubled since 2022 as new …
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Q4 2025 Demand Overview: Industrial and Multifamily Slowed, Office Stabilized, Retail Held Steady
Lee & Associates’ 2025 Q4 North America Market Report looks at diverging market demand across industrial, office, retail and multifamily spaces nationwide in the last quarter. Demand continued to soften for industrial spaces, while multifamily saw a reversal: decreased demand after seven consecutive quarters of strengthening. Office saw a slow increase in net absorption, but only after six years of negative absorption; retail demand was mixed. Industrial and retail spaces contended with tariff concerns, while all four types of commercial real estate saw either decreased or slowed rent growth in the final quarter of 2025. Lee & Associates’ full, detailed market report is available to read here. The overviews for the sectors below illustrate the market landscape through data on net absorption, leasing and development activity, sales transactions and rent growth, in addition to demand. Industrial Overview: Demand Falls Under Tariff Pressure Falling demand for industrial space continued in 2025 under the added strain of the United States’ aggressive trade and tariff policies affecting commercial property markets across North America. In the United States net absorption declined again in 2025 as tenant and rent growth fell to their lowest levels since the aftermath of the financial crisis. Meanwhile, inventory growth has been scaled back …
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Navigating Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Small Balance Multifamily Loan Programs
By Ann Atkinson, Regions Real Estate Capital Markets Most multifamily real estate owners need to finance or refinance their apartment community at some point. Many utilize the small balance multifamily loan programs available through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do so. Understanding how lenders navigate each phase of the loan cycle can give owners a strategic advantage, especially in a time of elevated rate volatility. A significant amount of multifamily debt is maturing in 2026. Borrowers should not wait to refinance to avoid the concentrated competition later in the year when lenders are faced with refinancing demand. In addition, modest rent growth today offers refinancing upside; and finally, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have higher production caps in 2026, providing more runway for lending. The following overview, based on Regions Real Estate Capital Markets’ experience, outlines five key phases of the process, with helpful tips throughout: 1. Screening and Term Sheet Loan screening kicks off the relationship between borrower and lender. The lender’s production representative often conducts an introductory call with the borrower, who completes an application and provides due diligence items. Access a checklist of items to provide to Regions for screening here. Tip #1: Get all required (and …
Commercial real estate is in the middle of one of its biggest transitions. For years, the challenge was finding data. Now, the challenge is knowing what to do with it. Artificial intelligence (AI) is starting to change that. The conversation has shifted from if we should be using AI to how we can use it in a way that actually improves business outcomes. REBusinessOnline recently spoke with Rob Finlay, founder and CEO of Defease With Ease | Thirty Capital, and Trevor Albarran, VP of product at Lobby AI, about how AI is changing decision-making in commercial real estate (CRE), what early adopters have learned and what leaders should be focusing on next. REBusinessOnline (REBO): What’s the biggest opportunity facing CRE executives today? Rob Finlay: It depends on the context, but right now, AI is the most powerful tool a real estate executive can have in their arsenal. AI finally gives principals — the people paid to think — the space to actually do that. When I started in real estate, I was paid to do. But as my role evolved, my value shifted to thinking — being strategic, motivating teams, and making high-level decisions. AI amplifies that ability. It takes …
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Capital Returns as 2025 Signals a Market Reset
By Patrick McGlohn, senior managing director, Berkadia After two years of caution and recalibration, capital is flowing back into commercial real estate. The bid-ask gap between buyers and sellers is narrowing, underwriting assumptions are stabilizing and both equity and debt investors are once again finding common ground. At Berkadia, we’re seeing equity move from the sidelines to the playing field, selectively, but decisively. Equity’s Comeback: Selective, but Strong Private equity and institutional investors are increasingly re-entering the market, with activity strongest in the “Smile States,” stretching from Northern Virginia to the western states and extending into major cities like Chicago. Much of the capital is chasing value-add and opportunistic plays rather than core, stabilized assets. Over the past couple of years, many equity investors would only touch preferred equity because of valuation uncertainty, but now we’re seeing common equity return in a meaningful way. The change reflects both greater pricing clarity and a collective sense that the bottom of the market cycle has passed. Navigating the Wall of Maturities The looming wall of debt maturities remains a defining storyline for 2025 and beyond. Nearly $950 billion in commercial mortgages matured in 2025 — roughly 20 percent of all outstanding commercial …
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Lee & Associates’ Report: Q3 Results Shaped by Market Uncertainty, Questions of Legality, Tariffs, AI Considerations
Lee & Associates’ 2025 Q3 North America Market Report examines a commercial real estate landscape experiencing some pauses as the effects of exogenous forces work their way through the market. Economic and legal questions, the second- and third-order effects of tariffs, persistently high costs, unemployment concerns and the new realities of artificial intelligence (AI) have combined to produce mixed results across all property types. Demand for office and retail has increased (and their respective pipelines remain constrained). Of the four property types covered in the report — industrial, office, retail and multifamily — only retail saw transaction momentum in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the overbuilt industrial and multifamily sectors have witnessed weakening or negative demand in the third quarter. Lee & Associates’ full, detailed market report is available to read here. The overviews for the sectors below reveal a market that seems to be holding its breath, awaiting new information. Industrial Overview: Markets Await Tariff Clarity Net absorption of industrial space increased in the third quarter across North America, but demand was weak and failed again to keep pace with the supply of new buildings, while tenant growth remained hobbled by tariff concerns and interest rates. In the United States, following 8.1 million square feet …
Enterprising multifamily players are shifting the industry’s views on community connectivity, elevating broadband from a stand-alone amenity into a performance booster for larger real estate strategies. Rather than leave their residents’ connection quality to chance, these developers, owners and managers are contracting with specialized internet service providers (ISPs) to blanket entire properties with high-speed Wi-Fi access for the best possible online experience. “On the operations side, rolling out community Wi-Fi lets us give residents the full connectivity they expect from other parts of their life, because all areas of the property function together for a seamless experience,” says David Walther, chief revenue officer at third-party property manager Asset Living. Asset Living manages more than 300,000 units at client communities including conventional multifamily, student housing, affordable and other property types across the country. At nearly all student housing and a growing share of the multifamily communities Asset Living manages, matrices of Wi-Fi access points keep residents and property teams alike online as they traverse the property, from inside residential units to pools, fitness centers, garages and other common areas. Earlier this year, Asset Living made internet service provider Pavlov Media a preferred national partner for bulk managed Wi-Fi at its communities. …
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Lee & Associates’ Report: Q2 Net Absorption Declines Across All Property Sectors Except Multifamily
Lee & Associates’ 2025 Q2 North America Market Report looks back at shrinking (or negative) net absorption for industrial, office and retail sectors in the last quarter. Meanwhile, multifamily tenant demand beat previous expectations in the same three months, as a feared recession failed to materialize. The mix of factors for absorption varied by property type: industrial and office markets saw increases in vacancy, while competition for retail space remained high, even in the face of high-profile closures. Lee & Associates’ full market report is available to read here (plus detailed vacancy rates, cap rates by city, market rents, square footage information, information on Canadian markets and more). The recaps for industrial, office, retail and multifamily sectors below detail trends and outlooks for each property sector in the remainder of 2025. Industrial Overview: Vacancies Rise, Rent Growth Slows Concern over the impact of tariffs has added to slowing tenant growth in logistics and manufacturing across North America. But the continued easing demand has resulted in more choices and benefits for users that have been subjected to a prolonged stretch of steep rent growth. Vacancies in the United States have risen to 7.4 percent, a decade-long high, while deliveries continued to outpace tenant expansion. Net absorption fell …
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Institutional Investors Resume Activity Amid Stabilizing Conditions
Since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March 2022 to combat inflation, the real estate market has faced challenges such as rising interest rates, capital market volatility and economic uncertainty. These factors caused many institutional investors to pause their real estate investment activities compared to historical levels. Despite ongoing volatility, investors are gradually re-entering the market, driven by several factors. Key reasons for the pause included a challenging fundraising and capital markets environment, the unpredictable cost of capital, a scarcity of transactions leading to a lack of pricing discovery and widening bid/ask spreads. Some institutional investors were impacted by the “denominator effect,” resulting in an overweighting to real estate and the need for portfolio rebalancing. Additionally, to create bolster funds for other portfolio issues, some institutional investors entered redemption queues seeking liquidity. Broader capital market constraints reduced the availability of equity, while simultaneously driving a growing preference for structuring investments as debt rather than equity among those who remained active. During this period of muted transaction activity, private investors capitalized on the market’s dislocation. These investors increasingly prioritized their acquisition efforts toward newer vintage core and core-plus assets over value-add or development opportunities, reflecting a shift toward higher quality …
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