Multifamily investment transaction volume had an unprecedented year in 2021, and the first six months of 2022 were quite robust. Now, economic uncertainty in the form of rising interest rates and a cooling economy has created some hesitancy on the part of investors. “Some normalization is occurring in the market now, in addition to a pullback because of what is going on in the capital markets and economy,” says Paul Darrow, a managing director of Walker & Dunlop’s investment sales team based out of Los Angeles. Walker & Dunlop is one of the largest providers of capital to commercial real estate industry in the United States. Darrow sat down with REBusinessOnline to talk about multifamily investment sales trends in the Los Angeles area and the opportunities he sees for investors down the road. REBusiness: Investor interests have shifted in the past few months. What kinds of properties are investors most interested in now? Darrow: It’s a mixed bag when it comes to investor appetite. Those who raised money to buy specific types of buildings are obviously guided by what they’ve promised their investors in the form of return profiles and risk. Core funds, for example, can’t just switch to value-add or …
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Multifamily Developers Must Find Balance Between Density, Amenities
Finding a balance between density and amenities has never been simple for residential developers, but rising interest rates, density restrictions and an increased desire to solidify multifamily projects within the community mean that there is much to be gained from creative approaches to this old problem. Starting the process of planning early, using zoning to the developer’s advantage and creating an adaptable, sustainable and welcoming place for tenants can allow for a successful project with a lower overall price tag. This method can solve some of the trickier problems faced by multifamily developers, including density, parking and zoning considerations. Starting Off Right — Creating a Master Site Plan Success in multifamily is easier to achieve if the project starts with a shared team vision from the outset, says Bill Rearden, principal at Bohler, a land development design and consulting firm. Rearden explains that Bohler has its own planning, landscape architecture and survey teams and works with many industry partners for environmental and geotechnical due diligence. “We work with these teams in the very early stages to understand what the configuration of a property is and what its constraints are. We know upfront any underlying zoning a property might have, so …
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Arbor: Multifamily Market Well-Positioned to Withstand Economic Headwinds
While rising interest rates, inflation and economic volatility have hurt many sectors of the economy, the rental housing market has maintained solid footing, according to Arbor Realty Trust’s Summer 2022 Special Report: Rental Housing Market Exhibits Cyclical Stability, Contains Structural Questions. The report was written by Ivan Kaufman, Arbor’s chairman and CEO, and Sam Chandan, founder of Chandan Economics. In a time of economic uncertainty, renting has become more appealing. Households seeking an affordable place to live, those who are delaying homeownership and others who prefer the flexibility and amenities associated with multifamily units all add to the increasing numbers of potential renters. Less traditional factors may also increase interest in renting, especially outside of tier-one markets. The expansion of work-from-home (WFH) culture is likely to be another reason rental demand is high right now. Meanwhile, the flexibility to work where the cost of living is lower and space is at less of a premium is pushing some renters who work remotely to explore living outside traditional hotspots. Economic Uncertainty Spreads as Interest Rate, Inflation Rise The Arbor Realty Trust report highlights a host of factors that are leading to economic uncertainty. Inflation (and its secondary effects) are contributing to …
Amazon recently reconfigured and consolidated its network of warehouses, and many other retailers followed suit. The result? The outlook for industrial real estate, particularly retail warehouses, is now more difficult to interpret. Many retail clients are repositioning their supply chains to help avoid slowdowns and a potential International Warehouse Logistics Association (IWLA) union strike on the West Coast. This change has merged with a corporate need to find additional options for shipping and transport (especially as prices for transportation and industrial rents rise). The demand for industrial space has increased rapidly in less “congested” areas. As economic uncertainty continues, there is a shift towards tertiary markets for industrial real estate. This change provides significant opportunities for industrial investors, says Steve Pastor, VP of global supply chain, and ports/rail logistics/consultant at NAI James E. Hanson, who serves as NAI Global Industrial Council Chair. Investors and developers may be able to take advantage of a pause in a highly competitive field, in tertiary markets that have been traditionally less expensive than major and core markets. Amazon’s Impact News of Amazon’s plans to scale back its acquisition of industrial space (and to sublease its existing property to other retailers) has given some users opportunities …
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How to Maintain Multifamily Investment Momentum in the Face of Rising Interest Rates
By Melissa Jahnke, associate director of operations, Walker & Dunlop The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in June and then another 75 basis points in July, sending shockwaves across the commercial real estate industry. Fortunately, there are opportunities and solutions to bypass these potential roadblocks. Specifically, investors in a segment of multifamily housing known as small balance lending (SBL), encompassing five- to 150-unit properties, have several options to realize their aspirations for financing multifamily portfolios. View a higher resolution version of the timeline above here. During a recent webcast “Financing Amid Rising Rates: Best Approaches for $1M-$15M Multifamily Loans,” Walker & Dunlop’s market experts spoke about navigating today’s financing landscape. The expert panel included Allison Williams, senior vice president and chief production officer; Allison Herrera, senior director of SBL; and Tim Cotter, director of capital markets. These experienced professionals have found ways to make deals happen in a wide variety of financing environments and have shared their perspectives and guidance. If you are an owner of five- to 150-unit properties that require loans between $1 million to $15 million, the following will help you navigate today’s financial environment and build your momentum. Step 1: Consider the …
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Lee & Associates’ Second-Quarter 2022 Economic Rundown by Sector
Rising interest rates, inflation and general economic uncertainty altered the patterns and outlooks for the industrial, office, retail and multifamily sectors across the United States. As Lee & Associates’ recent Q2 2022 North America Market Report reveals, certain sectors like industrial and multifamily, that were white hot last year, have begun to cool slightly. Meanwhile, retail is making historic gains in the face of decreasing interest in ecommerce. The full Lee & Associates report is available (with further breakdowns of factors like vacancy rates, market rents, inventory square footage and cap rates by city) here. The analysis below provides an overview of four major commercial real estate sectors alongside economic factors impacting each. Industrial Overview: Record Low Supply, Rent Growth Demand for industrial space eased slightly from its record-setting growth of last year but remained strong through for the first half of 2022 as annualized rent growth moved into double digits and the overall vacancy rate fell to 3.9 percent, a record low. Net absorption through June totaled 192.2 million square feet. It was the second highest two-quarter total on record and more than the 170 million square feet of tenant growth for all of 2019. It was exceeded only by 297.8 …
Developers have seen permitting and entitlement timelines lengthen exponentially over the past few years. What is causing increased timelines and how do developers overcome challenges and avoid unnecessary delays? If expanded timelines are inevitable in some cases, how can developers ensure that slowdowns do not spread to other aspects of development? Many municipalities have been overwhelmed by an explosion in projects and applications in the development queue, and the issues are compounded by employee turnover within these organizations. Municipal slowdowns in upgrading utility capacities have further stalled the process of development. Additionally, the process for obtaining permits and entitlements has grown increasingly complex in certain regions, regardless of property type. REBusiness Online spoke with experts at Bohler, a land development design and consulting firm, to learn the best practices for keeping delays and budgets under control in the face of growing timeline uncertainties. To avoid problems before they begin, these experts recommend early due diligence and local expertise, as well as an approach that incorporates the community, local agencies and the authority having jurisdiction at crucial points. Bohler’s team also emphasizes the importance of working through waiting periods and working on different elements of a project concurrently, so that if …
Last year, a city known more for music than multifamily development led the nation in new construction growth rates, with luxury high rises popping up from downtown to the Gulch to along the Cumberland River. Nashville, attracting an abundance of debt and equity funding from sources old and new, is now considered an institutional-grade market. The driving force behind this growth: technology. Today, singers, songwriters and studio artists share the city with a growing number of software developers, systems architects and startup founders — and all of these innovators need a place to live, work, shop and play. Nashville’s tech evolution started from a solid foundation in healthcare, automotive and education, including HCA Healthcare and its associated startups, spinoffs and subsidiaries and an automotive hub that includes North American headquarters for Nissan and Korean tire manufacturer Hankook, as well as EV and battery cell manufacturing plants for GM. Twenty nine institutions of higher education, including Vanderbilt University, further helped develop a strong pipeline of tech talent. This ecosystem and a business-friendly climate have attracted some of the nation’s top tech employers: Amazon, who chose the metropolitan area for its much-coveted Center of Excellence; Oracle, relocating from Austin; and Capgemini, whose …
What should potential landlords know about leasing space for cell towers or renegotiating their legacy leases? “Landlords need to understand what economic opportunity they have available to them,” says David Moore, CEO and principal at NAI Global Wireless. Involving cell tower lease consultants, especially for existing leases, and considering cell site buyouts are two powerful tools available to cell site landlords today. For decades, Moore explains, property owners have been willing to sign less-than-ideal agreements with carriers and tower companies. Over the years, landlords, thinking that just because these cell tower sites are small and out of the way or because they did not want to turn down “free money,” were willing to sign disadvantageous lease agreements. Landlords often do not understand the impact of signing a lease agreement with a potential term of 30 years (made up of five-year terms), especially when tenants might use leases to constrain certain real estate negotiations (including rights like tenant approval for buyers, rights of first refusal and noncompetition clauses). In many cases, tenants have the unilateral right to terminate their lease without notice, a right about which landlords frequently aren’t aware. Rent escalations, terms and conditions, inflation and more need to be …
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Walker & Dunlop: Spring Multifamily Market Contends with Inflation, Housing Bubble Fears
By Walker & Dunlop’s Research Department Inflation and a New Era of Monetary Tightening Amid 40-year high inflation rates, home prices that have surged by over 40 percent in the past three years and double-digit price increases in basic necessities such as food, gas and electricity, the United States seems to be beset on all sides. Inflation has become the question of the day with little relief even after monetary tightening began earlier in the year. After a quarter point increase in the Federal Reserve target rate in March, the Fed implemented a whopping 50 basis point increase in the target Federal Funds rate in May after April inflation remained at 8.2 percent, near the March high of 8.6 percent.[1] The central bank’s goal is to reduce inflation to an annual rate of approximately 2 percent. The employment base, the Fed’s other prime objective, seems to remain strong. Unemployment (at 3.6 percent in April) remains low and employment growth of 390,000 in May beat economist expectations. The Fed’s job now is to beat inflation and prevent it from becoming embedded in consumer expectations. Why? Because once inflation becomes embedded in expectations, it changes consumer behavior and becomes somewhat of a …