Multifamily investment benefitted from the uncertainties of the past year, but will the transaction volumes of 2021 be used to gauge the likely outcomes for 2022? Managing directors Todd Stofflet and Jason Stevens of Walker & Dunlop’s Chicago office review 2021 and what the trends of this year indicate for the direction of the industry. REBusiness: What have you seen regarding multifamily investment activity this year? Stofflet: Early in the pandemic, we saw a lot of investment pull away from retail and office, focusing more on industrial and multifamily. In 2021, the multifamily sector has fared very well and a lot of new investors have entered the multifamily market. If you talk to some of our colleagues in the Southeast and the “smile states,” they will tell you that transaction volume has never been higher and the amount of capital chasing these opportunities has never been bigger. Across the country, it has been a very strong year for the sector. REBusiness: Do you think 2021 will be a record year in terms of sales? Stevens: If our pipeline is any barometer for that, the answer is “absolutely,” but it will be market dependent. What you’ll find is that sales in …
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AcquisitionsBuild-to-RentContent PartnerFeaturesLeasing ActivityMidwestMultifamilySingle-Family RentalSoutheastTexasWalker & DunlopWestern
When the pandemic engulfed the world last year, few analysts predicted that the multifamily sector would flourish and thrive so well. Most suspected that the sector would be on life support. Yet, despite a year-long national eviction moratorium, there hasn’t been a better time to be a big apartment-building landlord. Multifamily-property values have increased 13 percent since before the pandemic and more money is being invested now in apartment buildings than in any other type of commercial real estate. How did this happen and what explains this? Lee & Associates’ research will delve into why the multifamily sector, contrary to past predictions and present-day misperceptions, is flourishing as never before. 1. Measured on an annual basis, national asking rents rose 10.3 percent in August. That marked the first double-digit increase in the more than 20 years the data of 13 million professionally managed apartments has been collected, and in several cities, the rent increases were much more significant than the national figure.[1] August rents rose more than 20 percent year-over-year in Phoenix, Las Vegas and Tampa. Similarly, monthly rents were up more than 20 percent in comparable markets such as Boise, Idaho and Naples, Florida. 2. Multiple factors explain this …
Mall and shopping center owners nationwide are faced with the vacancy of major big box anchors that have closed their doors due to the continued uptick in online retail and changing shopping habits and desires of today’s consumers. Often massive, these two-story, or even three-story spaces seem impossible to fill with the decline of most brick and mortar retail stores. Developers are being challenged to think outside the [big] box to find new tenants and creative uses for the space. Malls were originally thought of as community centers for neighborhoods during the mall boom. That attitude fell by the wayside as malls removed their socially engaging aspects and lost their sense of place — instead of being a place for the community to gather, the mall became simply a place to shop. Now, largely expedited by the pandemic, there have been seismic shifts in retail and shopper habits/what the consumer wants out of their shopping experience. The key word here is experience. Malls have had to readapt to fill in vacant spaces from large department stores that consumers no longer favor. This has opened up a lot of atypical uses, from distribution centers to residential to entertainment components to medical facilities. …
Build-to-RentContent PartnerDevelopmentFeaturesMidwestMultifamilyNortheastSoutheastTexasWalker & DunlopWestern
Demographic, Economic Trends Likely to Sustain Build-For-Rent Sector’s Growth
Institutional investors have been increasingly interested in the build-for-rent (BFR) space over the last five years. But the pandemic poured gasoline on an asset class that offers tenants space, privacy and the flexibility of renting. Now that COVID appears to be receding in some areas, can the BFR sector maintain its growth? Paul Garner, director at Walker & Dunlop, believes that demographic and economic trends will maintain the demand for BFR, especially in the Sun Belt states, for the near future. Opportunities for Growth and a Focus on the Sun Belt Garner sees the most potential for BFR growth in suburban areas — particularly those located 15 to 20 minutes outside of a metropolitan statistical area. The economic growth and increasing populations of nearby cities determine whether suburban BFR setups will attract tenants. According to Garner, the dedicated BFR/single-family rental (SFR) team at Walker & Dunlop has started to see a lot of action similar to what they saw on the West Coast (especially in Arizona) four or five years ago. He notes, “BFR properties are becoming increasingly popular all throughout the Sun Belt states, especially Florida and the Carolinas. There’s a potential in this area to get land very, …
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Lee & Associates Breaks Down Third-Quarter Economic Outlook by Sector
The calculus for which asset classes are likeliest to demonstrate strong growth continues to shift as the pandemic appears to be receding. Patterns in labor shortages, supply chain issues and material costs have managed to solidify through the third quarter of 2021. Lee & Associates’ newly released Q3 2021 North America Market Report dissects third-quarter 2021 industrial, office, retail and multifamily findings, with a focus on where demand is moving and the challenges facing each asset class. Lee & Associates has made the full market report available at this link (with further breakdowns of factors like vacancy rates, market rents, inventory square footage and cap rates by city). Below is a bird’s-eye overview of four commercial real estate asset classes as general categories, broken down to frame each through the trends and complications they faced up to the fourth quarter, according to Lee & Associates’ research. Industrial: Q3 Posts More Record Demand Pandemic-fueled consumer spending drove up third-quarter demand for warehouse and distribution facilities that eclipsed previous records. And despite a nationwide surge in new construction, some metros can barely accommodate the pace of tenant expansion. Additionally, year-over-year rent growth is at a record 6.7 percent for the industrial property sector …
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Small-Balance Multifamily: Sizable and Resilient
While new-builds and top-of-the-line, large-scale developments typically attract the most buzz in the multifamily world, the vast majority of apartment properties in the United States have fewer than 100 units. These smaller properties play a vital role in delivering affordable and workforce rental housing inventory to the U.S. population. While the commercial real estate industry may refer to this sector of the multifamily market as “small,” make no mistake, “small” multifamily is not insignificant or inferior — it’s sizable and resilient. As other commercial real estate sectors paused during COVID-19, smaller multifamily properties and small-balance lending thrived. What does the future hold for this market? The Small Multifamily Market Defined The small multifamily market is highly fragmented with no clear definition of what constitutes “small” among capital sources. Generally, market statistics define the “small” multifamily sector by at least one of two measures: Unit count between five and 99 units; and/or Principal loan balance at origination between $1 million and $10 million[1] Strong Demand and Operating Fundamentals While the pandemic negatively impacted many areas of commercial real estate, with offices, retail shops and hotels largely shuttered across the U.S., the multifamily market remained resilient. Despite the past year’s challenges, multifamily …
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Manufactured Housing Communities Garner Investor Interest
Interest in affordable paths to homeownership and the growing popularity of lower density living are raising the profile of the manufactured housing option among American households and investors. At the same time, the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making concerted efforts to better serve this historically underfinanced market at both the individual homeowner and community levels. The combination of robust cash flow growth (particularly in Sunbelt and Western markets), cap rate compression, and liquidity provided by the GSEs makes a compelling case for manufactured housing community (MHC) acquisitions and refinances. As increased competition has left market participants looking for an edge amidst compressing cap rates, the importance of working with an experienced MHC lender with access to short- and long-term loan programs has become more apparent. The following provides an in-depth analysis of the recent performance of rental MHCs, sales volume and pricing trends, and loan and underwriting trends in the MHC space. The Performance of the Site Rental Market The COVID-19 pandemic affected American housing preferences in profound ways. Increasingly, households are seeking lower density options with larger floor plans, home offices, and dedicated space for entertaining or distanced learning. This phenomenon …
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Multifamily Outlook: Growth Undiminished by Pandemic-Related Disruptions
The Roaring ’20s and the Great Wealth Transfer The United States is well on a path of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown that began in March 2020. More than 60 percent of the U.S. population has now received at least one dose of the vaccine, and more than half are fully vaccinated. Those figures increase significantly by age, particularly for the 65+ population[1]. The economy is booming this year — it is estimated to have grown by 7.8 percent[2] in the second quarter following 6.4 percent growth in the first quarter of 2021. Unemployment remains low at 5.9 percent in June due to 7.9 million jobs created in the past year. Retail sales are up by 23 percent year-over-year.[3] Even the battered restaurant industry has recovered, with sales again surpassing grocery sales as of April 2021. Pandemic-induced disruptions to labor and trade finally began showing in inflation figures. Even excluding the more volatile food and energy sectors, inflation soared from 1.6 percent in March to 4.5 percent in June, the highest pace since 1991. However, expectations are that the price pressure is a temporary adjustment as the economy recovers. Core inflation is expected to end the year at around 2.2 …
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Walker & Dunlop: Excess Capital Makes for Competitive Lending Environment
The third quarter of 2020 was the beginning of a significant rebound for capital markets in commercial real estate. After banks and other lenders slowed their activity during the pandemic, lenders and equity investors regained their momentum — particularly in multifamily and industrial — a trend that has continued through the third quarter of 2021. It’s a good time to be a borrower, explains Mark Strauss, managing director of capital markets, and Rob Quarton, senior director of capital markets, with Walker & Dunlop’s Irvine, California, office. Vigorous Lending Markets Currently, Quarton explains, “Banks are really competitive. Debt funds are also aggressive — their funding mechanisms, like collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), have come back strong. Further, insurance companies are under allocated to real estate, which increases their annual volume targets and desire to win more business. Consumers have been purchasing more life insurance policies and insurance in general post pandemic, which provides dry powder for insurance companies to invest. In general, lending markets are very robust today, with ample options for lenders up and down the capital stack.” “Lenders have yearly production quotas, and I don’t think any of them hit their quotas last year,” adds Strauss. “This caused an overhang of …
As more aspects of our lives become digital, the need for data centers is increasing exponentially. COVID fast-tracked the upsurge in data center demand, as businesses worldwide transferred communications and operations to digital platforms — but the need for data centers is permanent. “With an increase in devices needing to connect to each other and the Internet of Things (IOT), the amount of data needed to do this will always be growing, furthering the demand for additional space within data centers,” says Megan Baird, Professional Engineer (PE), a senior project manager at Bohler, a land development consulting and technical design firm. Getting the right space with the right zoning, utilities and market timeline can be a daunting task that requires extensive planning. Baird says three major factors determine whether a site is a prime data center opportunity: utilities, zoning and space. Plus, Baird explains how to get a property to market once the planning is done. [box style=”4″] What’s Available to Help Developers Tax incentives vary by state and locality and can depend on the number of jobs created, equipment used or amount of money invested. Overlay districts are a regulatory tool where jurisdictions specify additional restrictions/allowances in addition to …