Focus on the Midwest Amid a global pandemic and its economic repercussions, the American Midwest has remained a place of comparative stability — and opportunity. Wide-open spaces and lower costs of living attract businesses and workers alike. Warehouses, distribution centers and transportation corridors bustle thanks to shifting supply chains and surges in deliveries. Educated workforces and leading universities and research centers nourish hubs in tech and life sciences. In short, there’s a lot in “flyover country” for the multifamily industry to like in 2021. An overview follows of the region stretching from Minnesota to Ohio and from Michigan to Kentucky. Why is the Midwest a good value for multifamily investors today and why is it well positioned for the post-COVID-19 recovery? Read on to learn more. Beneath-the-Radar Metropolitan Areas Blossom Even before COVID-19, Midwestern cities have been attracting people and businesses. Across industries, the Midwest hosts some of America’s largest employers: Kroger (Cincinnati), Salesforce (Indianapolis), Cardinal Health, Nationwide Insurance, Honda of America (Columbus), as well as Target, U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, 3M and Medtronic (all in Minneapolis-St. Paul). Thirteen companies in the Fortune 1000 have set up shop in Milwaukee, and 15 have operations in Columbus. The region has much …
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There has been much anecdotal discussion lately of Californians fleeing high-cost, high-density, high-traffic living for greener pastures, especially as COVID-19 made working from home a possibility for California’s high-tech workforce. This trend is not just a rumor for the residents of Idaho. Idaho is the second-fastest growing state in the nation[1], and Californians make up nearly 46 percent[2] of a new population influx that the state has experienced over the past five years. What is driving so many people from the Golden State to the Gem State, and what does this mean for commercial real estate prospects in Idaho? REBusiness sat down with Matt Mahoney, managing principal, Lee & Associates Idaho, to answer those questions. Remote Work and Booming Growth COVID-19-related remote work is driving people to areas where there is a high quality of life, natural beauty and an abundance of outdoor activities. Matt Mahoney notes that because Idaho’s population is lower to start with, the state can easily find itself at the top of lists of fast-growing states. Still, there is real growth in Idaho’s population (increasing 17.4 percent since the 2010 census[3]). However, Mahoney believes there is a lag between the exploding population and the commercial real estate …
Shifting behaviors and expectations for consumers, manufacturers and distributors have made industrial space central to the commercial real estate landscape. “This is an asset class that for 25 years of my 39 years in the commercial real estate business was a boring, middle-of-the-road class. But this steady investment has just exploded,” says Jay Olshonsky, president and CEO of NAI Global. Much of the most recent change has been driven by the particulars of the COVID-19 pandemic. Delivery became a way of life for those socially distancing, creating an instant need for more distribution and warehousing centers. Olshonsky explains that the behavioral changes starting in March of 2020 accelerated trends (online shopping, delivery/pickup services and working from home) that might otherwise have taken five or more years to come to fruition. Olshonsky explains that there are still hurdles for this ascendant product type to overcome, but the changes we’ve seen over the last year will remain. Industrial Not a Bubble “Industrial is here to stay,” says Olshonsky. “COVID accelerated trends that already existed, but those trends were already in motion. We’re seeing some changes that are fundamental.” The need for delivery and warehouses is fed by new expectations: “Ecommerce is the …
Whether you are buying undeveloped land or assessing a property for potential redevelopment, thorough due diligence is critical to good decision-making. With the speed at which today’s commercial real estate market operates, you may face time constraints and you definitely want to limit expenditures related to due diligence — but you don’t want to cut corners. An incomplete understanding of the challenges at the site will limit your ability to scope out the project and could impact your ability to keep it on schedule and within budget. Even if you need to complete due diligence on an expedited timeline, make sure you check all the boxes. Here are six key items that should be on your checklist to ensure you limit unexpected costs and delays. 1. Geotechnical and Environmental Investigations Depending on your project scope, some form of a geotechnical investigation makes sense. Prior to design, it’s important to find out if soil constraints pose risks or design challenges. Geotechnical due diligence will disclose information about the physical properties of the underlying soil including rock, historic fill, unsuitable organic layers, seasonal groundwater and/or buried debris. Environmental due diligence will provide information about existing site challenges including wetlands, floodplains, brownfields, archeological factors …
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Walker & Dunlop: U.S. Economy Displays Long-Term Signals for Recovery, Growth
Back to Normal? The U.S. economy has improved significantly since April 2020, the peak of the pandemic-induced recession. The national unemployment rate stood at 6.0 percent in March of this year, well below the peak of 14.8 percent in April 2020. Companies were effective in implementing work-from-home technology, keeping unemployment rates for office-based service sectors relatively low. For those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, unemployment rates were only 3.7 percent as of March 2021. In 2020, third-quarter GDP growth made up much of the second-quarter losses, followed by 4 percent annualized economic growth in the fourth quarter. Retail sales also rebounded quickly, returning to pre-pandemic levels by June and continuing to increase through the beginning of 2021. However, the U.S. economy is still far from “normal.” Of the 22 million people who lost jobs in March and April 2020, only 57.8 percent had regained employment by March 2021. Stronger growth should return jobs to industries hit hardest during the pandemic. In March of this year, restaurants and bars added 176,000 jobs; arts, entertainment and recreation venues added 64,000 jobs and accommodations added 40,000 jobs. Still, employment in the overall leisure and hospitality sector is down by 3.1 million, or 18.5 …
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Build-for-Rent Space May Outperform Conventional Multifamily on Occupancy, Rents
The past few years have seen a surge in interest in single-family rental (SFR) and build-for-rent (BFR) spaces in commercial real estate. Traditionally the domain of small- and medium-sized investors, the SFR/BFR space has begun to attract institutional investors. BFR, in particular, can often offer higher occupancy levels and rents while promising lower capital and operating costs than traditional multifamily housing. Keaton Merrell, managing director, Capital Markets, Walker & Dunlop, spoke to REBusinessOnline about debt and equity in BFR, as well what to know when it comes to agency involvement. First, Merrell briefly clarifies the terminology: “Oftentimes, people use SFR and BFR interchangeably. They are two totally separate asset classes and are looked at differently by capital. SFR is defined as a cluster of homes in various geographies that are pooled together for investment purposes. BFR is purpose-built housing within contiguous rental communities, much like traditional multifamily properties.” For a more in-depth look at the SFR and BFR in general, read more on the asset class here. REBusinessOnline: What is the current state of debt and equity capital in the market when it comes to BFR? Merrell: I will start with equity and then move on to debt. The equity that is coming into the …
Many in commercial real estate expected a tsunami of COVID-related distressed properties in 2020 and 2021. So far, the wave hasn’t materialized, says Jay Olshonsky, president and CEO of NAI Global. Businesses have been sustained by exogenous factors that may or may not keep them from foreclosure or receivership in the long term. In many cases, lender forbearances or flexible plans have simply extended the window in which distressed properties may eventually revert to receivership. Olshonsky spoke to REBusinessOnline about receivership activity and what the industry expects over the next 12 months. Delays: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, Plus Current Factors As court-appointed receivers, NAI’s representatives act as the owner and operator of properties in foreclosure on behalf of the court. A receivership needs to have the capability to lease the property, pay taxes and handle accounting — basically, taking over all aspects of managing a property and keeping it functioning, Olshonsky says. Much of how NAI Global has chosen to approach the current receivership landscape originated in the lessons of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. During the early stages of the pandemic, NAI knew there would be fallout that would force some businesses into foreclosure, servicing, note sales or similar …
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Walker & Dunlop: Single-Family Rental and Build-for-Rent in High Demand
A number of factors are driving an increase in demand for single-family rental assets. Declines in home ownership rates, increasing demand/short supply for multifamily options and baby boomer renting preferences have made renting these single-family properties an increasingly popular choice. Meanwhile, COVID-19 spurred increases in teleworking that created a desire for additional space in the home and allowed more people to move to suburban locations — accelerating demand for single-family rental properties. Seeing the growing demand and increasing rents in the single-family rental (SFR) and build-for-rent (BFR) sector, Walker & Dunlop has created a new team — Walker & Dunlop SFR & BFR Practice Group — to provide investors information on construction, bridge lending, permanent financing, equity structuring and property sales, for a market estimated at $3.4 trillion (compared to $3.5 trillion for the multifamily market).1 Popularity, high occupancy and increasing rent rates have drawn the attention of larger investors to SFR and BFR assets, according to Kris Mikkelsen, executive vice president of investment sales with Walker & Dunlop. “Currently, larger investors make up less than 2 percent of the SFR market, which has been traditionally governed by individuals or small-scale parties. But that number will increase as investors recognize …
The pandemic has forced the appraisal business into a surreal experience: many valuation professionals had their physical connections to the market severed or diminished. The question became: how best to assign value to the properties that appraisers are tasked with assessing especially while the demand for valuation has grown. Where does the rise of automatic valuation systems (AVSs) fit in with the valuation process? Karl Finkelstein, vice president of Business Development and senior managing director for Valbridge Property Advisors, spoke recently to REBusinessOnline. He explains, “The appraisal business is still all about reporting on what we see in the marketplace. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is our physical connection to the market — talking with market participants and attempting to read the tea leaves.” As for many companies, the past few months have been a time of reassessment and reengagement with the technology and tools at hand. “We’ve had to rethink how we do inspections; we’ve had to rethink how we physically interact. Technology has given us a big hand with that, and it has changed some of the some of the ways we do business and enhanced others,” says Finkelstein. A Hands-On Business, Socially Distanced Physical inspections remain …
The single-family rental (SFR) and build-for-rent (BFR) space is emerging as one of the strongest growth sectors in commercial real estate. While the SFR market has made up a portion of the rental market for many years, historically individual and small-scale investors have dominated the market. Institutional investors have only invested in the space for the last 10 to 12 years since the end of the Great Recession. Demand for SFR has been steadily increasing due to current demographic trends related to Gen Y and baby boomers; however, migration patterns related to COVID-19 have accelerated that demand. SFR growth is expected to outpace multifamily, office, retail, storage and hospitality growth by 2022. As the demand for more SFR properties grows, an increasing number of larger investors are expanding their investment strategy to include the product. With the SFR asset class gaining more attention, the BFR sub-segment is playing an emerging role in large-scale investors’ portfolios. The SFR market is estimated at $3.4 trillion, compared to $3.5 trillion for the multifamily market.1 Institutional investors make up less than 2 percent of the SFR market compared to 55 percent for the multifamily market. As more young families, families with children and retirees …