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Cleveland, Milwaukee & St. Louis Multifamily Forecasts Indicate Case for Caution

by Sarah Daniels November 19, 2020

In earlier research, we found that investors may find advantageous risk and reward tradeoffs during the pandemic in often overlooked Midwest secondary markets. For the most part, average rent and occupancy metrics in these markets continued to rise throughout the summer, recession notwithstanding. Together, their inviting cap rates, rising NOI and low historic income volatility form a fairly compelling investment predicate. We also found that positive performance attributes were not limited to the region’s most robust economies. Even metropolitan markets that have experienced slow demographic growth — like Cincinnati and Detroit — posted surprisingly good revenue growth. Can the same logic be extended to metropolitan areas experiencing actual demographic decline? A review of recent trends in three “high-yield” markets with negative population growth – Cleveland, Milwaukee and St. Louis – shed some light on the question. View higher resolution version of chart above here. With respect to occupancy, the answer is yes. In fact, property level data published by Yardi suggest that market conditions in each of these metro areas has been constructive since February. Between February and October, average occupancy among stabilized same-store property samples increased by 14 basis points in Cleveland and 10 bps in St. Louis, in …

November 19, 2020

Content Partner Heartland Feature Archive Lument Michigan Midwest Multifamily Ohio RED Capital Group

Slow and Steady Wins the Race: The Case for Multifamily in Cincinnati and Detroit

by Sarah Daniels November 12, 2020

Investors favor multifamily markets with brisk population growth and meaningful barriers to entry. But can a case be made in turbulent times for slow-growth Midwest cities characterized by weak entry barriers? View higher resolution version of chart above here. Midwest metro areas with relatively healthy demographic growth — Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City come to mind — have posted constructive performance trends during the pandemic recession so far, particularly with respect to rent. Among the 10 largest Midwest markets, Columbus recorded the fastest rent growth over the past three years (18.2 percent, according to Yardi Matrix) and nearly the fastest since the beginning of the pandemic (2.9 percent between February and October). Indeed, Columbus, Indianapolis (2.7 percent) and Kansas City (2.3 percent) respectively recorded the third, fourth and sixth fastest rent trends in the region since February, and each readily topped the -1.1 percent U.S. primary and secondary market average. The fastest rent growth in the region, however, was recorded by two metro areas not blessed with brisk population growth — Cincinnati and Detroit. Between February and October all property rents increased 3.0 percent in Cincinnati and 3.4 percent in Detroit, figures exceeded in only a handful of markets nationally. …

November 12, 2020

Content Partner Heartland Feature Archive Indiana Lument Midwest Missouri Multifamily Ohio RED Capital Group

Secondary Midwest Markets: Investor Refuge or Flavor of the Month?

by Sarah Daniels November 5, 2020

More than a few column inches in multifamily media this year were dedicated to the implications of coronavirus on the housing preferences of renter households. Many theorize that the pandemic is leading householders to reexamine their attachment to urban life and consider suburban alternatives that offer larger floor plans, better schools, free parking and unit access without an elevator ride. Available data suggest there is something to this notion. Occupancy and rent in core urban neighborhoods in the primary markets have declined, substantially in the highest-cost cities. Suburban performance, by contrast, is strengthening. What is less certain is whether the same phenomenon is working to the benefit of secondary markets as well as big city suburbs. The jury is still out but investors already have stepped up acquisitions in the Sunbelt growth markets to exploit the opportunity — Austin and Phoenix were among the nine most active property markets in the third quarter, and Raleigh and Charlotte were just a step behind – but what of the staid and stable Midwest? Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City (the “Midwest Three”) stand out among Midwest cities as the secondary markets most likely to attract gateway city refugees. Each offers renters most of …

November 5, 2020

Content Partner Features Industrial New York Northeast Northeast Feature Archive Walker & Dunlop

New York Industrial Innovation Spreads Nationwide

by Sarah Daniels November 2, 2020

Despite the negative impact of the pandemic on many areas within commercial real estate, industrial assets continue to attract interest as a favored sector of many lenders and investors. The industrial market is outperforming others throughout this period of disruption. E-commerce growth has resulted in growth in the industrial sector as the need for last-mile delivery and third-party logistics space increases. Similarly, urban infill demand has grown in supply-constrained markets. Finally, the supercharging the industrial sector has created a need for new construction in this asset class, and construction lenders are finding new opportunities to earn higher returns. View higher resolution version of chart above here. Industrial Market Trends In major urban markets — New York City included — residents increasingly expect two-day delivery, next-day delivery and even same-day delivery. As a result of these shrinking delivery windows, the need for local distribution centers and last-mile facilities has increased significantly. The way people purchase and receive products has changed drastically, and the industrial sector must adjust to meet the demand. The nation-wide stay-at-home orders implemented at the outset of the pandemic caused e-commerce to experience exponential growth. People who had never shopped online began adapting to this trend. This created …

November 2, 2020

Content Partner Heartland Feature Archive Lument Midwest Minnesota Multifamily RED Capital Group

The Twin Cities: An Unlikely Shelter in Turbulent Multifamily Markets

by Sarah Daniels October 27, 2020

The Minneapolis metropolitan area made plenty of headlines in 2020, and much of the news wasn’t good. The social fabric was frayed, and property damage estimated at between $250 million and $500 million ensued. On the surface, the Twin Cities appear unlikely sources of stability and relative safety for multifamily investors, and yet market performance and property value trends have so far proven resilient in the face of adversity. In comparison to many of the primary markets and its regional rival, Chicago, Minneapolis has navigated the effects of the pandemic recession remarkably well and may represent an attractive option for investors who remain committed to the urban mid-rise model, as well as those considering increased exposure to suburban situations. The Minneapolis economy was by no means immune to the effects of public health-related lockdowns. Payroll employment plunged by 270,000 jobs in March and April, representing about 13.3 percent of the February metro total. Although severe, pandemic losses fell below the national average (U.S. payrolls fell 14.6 percent) and were comparable to those recorded in Chicago and Milwaukee. Since April, the Minneapolis labor market has made considerable headway. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.9 percent in August, materially lower than the …

October 27, 2020

Content Partner Heartland Feature Archive Illinois Lument Midwest Multifamily RED Capital Group

Investors Seek Safe Harbor in Chicago’s Apartment Market

by Sarah Daniels October 14, 2020

Multifamily investors prefer to concentrate capital in the primary markets. Although prices are steep and cap rates low, the gateway cities offer private equity and institutional buyers the young, affluent tenants, economic diversification, deep trough of performance data and property market liquidity that can’t be found in smaller cities. Gateway cities offer these assets…until they don’t. The pandemic recession has turned the usual way of looking at things upside down. At least for the moment, tenants are fleeing the high costs and perceived dangers of dense urban living for the relative safety and larger floor plans found in suburbs and, in some cases, secondary and tertiary markets. The impact on property performance is significant. In the modern urban mid- and high-rise buildings favored by large portfolio investors, occupancy and rents are down materially, trimming forward-looking net operating income 15 percent or more in many Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco buildings. Determining fair asset value is nearly impossible under the circumstances. Buyers still may be willing to bid at prices generating deeply sub-4 percent initial yields but only against conservatively underwritten NOI levels that discount an extended period of performance weakness. Few owners are willing to realize the resulting …

October 14, 2020

California Content Partner Features Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Western Western Feature Archive

Rents Weaken, Investors Stay Active in San Diego Multifamily Market

by Sarah Daniels October 5, 2020

By Daniel J. Hogan The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt more severely in Southern California than in most areas of the country. The Southland’s high concentration of employment in the tourism and entertainment sectors made it especially vulnerable to the effects of social distancing protocols and the reluctance of many to board commercial aircraft. Not only were job losses particularly acute in the initial months of the pandemic — the subsequent recovery has been lethargic. The rate of unemployment for July in each of the four large Southern California metropolitan markets remained materially above the national average, and in the case of Los Angeles County (18.2 percent) was the highest of any metropolitan area west of the Hudson River save for Yuma and El Centro. As it always has, Southern California will recover and is likely to do so in even more spectacular fashion than before. In the interim, how can multifamily investors position themselves to prosper? San Diego is the ideal market to scrutinize possible changes in renter behavior during the pandemic and consider their potential investment implications. Indeed, a deep dive into this market may provide clues to some of the great mysteries of …

October 5, 2020

Lee Associates quote Jacobson Healthcare460

Content Partner Features Healthcare Lee & Associates Midwest

Lee & Associates: Healthcare is a Slow but Steady Sector

by Sarah Daniels September 29, 2020

Healthcare has very different drivers when it comes to growth and demand. While highs and lows in the economy influence healthcare in many of the same ways other industries experience, it’s also governed by trends that are unique to how people seek — and pay for — their medical treatments. Chris Jacobson and Susan Wilson, both vice presidents and healthcare advisors for Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services, took some time recently to talk to REBusinessOnline about today’s healthcare real estate trends. Taking a broad look across the sector, some healthcare systems have lost revenue due to suspending elective procedures during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. “It’s going to take them a while to recoup that revenue,” Wilson says. “Additionally, now that they have reopened, they are spacing people out in waiting rooms, so they’re seeing fewer patients. There are currently opportunities for subleases with some major health systems. This could be an opportunity for some of the larger, more successful health systems to take over some of that space.” Jacobson has observed that there are three types of investments occurring right now. The first of those are large healthcare systems presently focused on COVID-19-related care. The …

September 29, 2020

California Content Partner Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Western Western Feature Archive Western Market Reports

In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector

by Sarah Daniels September 24, 2020

Orange County offers residents all the key elements of the American dream. Its virtues are numerous and faults few. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics ranks the quality of life in the OC 10th highest among the 378 U.S. metros it reports on, just a half-step behind leaders Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. Orange County is a terrific place to live, but is it a good place to invest? Gauging by observed capitalization rate trends, one may conclude that county apartment properties are highly prized gems. Class A trophy properties trade to going-in yields in the 4.00 percent to 4.10 percent area, and Class B and C garden complexes are typically priced to yields in the mid-4s, all only 25 basis points or so behind Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area comparisons. But judging from transaction velocity, one might draw a different conclusion. Only six Orange County multifamily properties of 50 units or more have changed hands since mid-year 2019, and not a single sale has closed since February. Even by the cautious norms of the moment, this stands out as a market in search of price discovery. Slow transaction velocity can be ascribed, in part, to the prevailing buy and …

September 24, 2020

California Content Partner Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Western Western Feature Archive

The Inland Empire: A Rare 2020 Apartment Sector Success Story

by Sarah Daniels September 15, 2020

Someone once remarked that eighty percent of success in life is just showing up. Human experience verifies that being in the right place at the right time often is the intangible ingredient that leads to triumph. The strong performance this year of the Inland Empire multifamily market is a variation on this theme. During the pandemic, many renters sought refuge from the high density and high costs associated with big city life, and the work-from-home phenomenon made this objective feasible. For many Angelinos, Empire living was the best solution — close enough to Los Angeles to maintain contact with family and friends or to go into the office when necessary but substantially less densely settled and more affordable than most L.A. neighborhoods. By way of quantification, the average Riverside and San Bernardino County monthly rent in July was about $1,578 — and that is 28 percent less than the L.A. County average. The percentage savings for Class A space were about 1 percent greater, and parking, an omnipresent issue for Southern Californians, is typically free. The cost economies found in the Empire are more than trivial. Moreover, renters are more likely than in the past to find the unit and …

September 15, 2020

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