A number of factors are driving an increase in demand for single-family rental assets. Declines in home ownership rates, increasing demand/short supply for multifamily options and baby boomer renting preferences have made renting these single-family properties an increasingly popular choice. Meanwhile, COVID-19 spurred increases in teleworking that created a desire for additional space in the home and allowed more people to move to suburban locations — accelerating demand for single-family rental properties. Seeing the growing demand and increasing rents in the single-family rental (SFR) and build-for-rent (BFR) sector, Walker & Dunlop has created a new team — Walker & Dunlop SFR & BFR Practice Group — to provide investors information on construction, bridge lending, permanent financing, equity structuring and property sales, for a market estimated at $3.4 trillion (compared to $3.5 trillion for the multifamily market).1 Popularity, high occupancy and increasing rent rates have drawn the attention of larger investors to SFR and BFR assets, according to Kris Mikkelsen, executive vice president of investment sales with Walker & Dunlop. “Currently, larger investors make up less than 2 percent of the SFR market, which has been traditionally governed by individuals or small-scale parties. But that number will increase as investors recognize …
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The pandemic has forced the appraisal business into a surreal experience: many valuation professionals had their physical connections to the market severed or diminished. The question became: how best to assign value to the properties that appraisers are tasked with assessing especially while the demand for valuation has grown. Where does the rise of automatic valuation systems (AVSs) fit in with the valuation process? Karl Finkelstein, vice president of Business Development and senior managing director for Valbridge Property Advisors, spoke recently to REBusinessOnline. He explains, “The appraisal business is still all about reporting on what we see in the marketplace. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is our physical connection to the market — talking with market participants and attempting to read the tea leaves.” As for many companies, the past few months have been a time of reassessment and reengagement with the technology and tools at hand. “We’ve had to rethink how we do inspections; we’ve had to rethink how we physically interact. Technology has given us a big hand with that, and it has changed some of the some of the ways we do business and enhanced others,” says Finkelstein. A Hands-On Business, Socially Distanced Physical inspections remain …
The single-family rental (SFR) and build-for-rent (BFR) space is emerging as one of the strongest growth sectors in commercial real estate. While the SFR market has made up a portion of the rental market for many years, historically individual and small-scale investors have dominated the market. Institutional investors have only invested in the space for the last 10 to 12 years since the end of the Great Recession. Demand for SFR has been steadily increasing due to current demographic trends related to Gen Y and baby boomers; however, migration patterns related to COVID-19 have accelerated that demand. SFR growth is expected to outpace multifamily, office, retail, storage and hospitality growth by 2022. As the demand for more SFR properties grows, an increasing number of larger investors are expanding their investment strategy to include the product. With the SFR asset class gaining more attention, the BFR sub-segment is playing an emerging role in large-scale investors’ portfolios. The SFR market is estimated at $3.4 trillion, compared to $3.5 trillion for the multifamily market.1 Institutional investors make up less than 2 percent of the SFR market compared to 55 percent for the multifamily market. As more young families, families with children and retirees …
The Washington, D.C. metropolitan area has been a perennial favorite for multifamily capital, particularly pension funds, life companies, family offices and other institutional investors and is often regarded as “recession-proof.” However, as we all know, 2020 was a year like no other. What impacts have COVID-19 and recent economic turmoil had on this market’s luster, and what do the prospects look like for investors, owners and operators in the long term? An Economy Buffered by Government and Technology The D.C. Metro’s response to the crisis has been one of the most robust, with local the economy currently 90 percent + open for business and no signs of a dip back into lockdown. From the initial shutdowns in March 2020 to the continued uncertainty of today, cities with heavy representation in retail, tourism and service sectors have experienced significant economic repercussions from COVID-19. In Washington, D.C., by contrast, having the federal government as the city’s largest employer has served as a major buffer. D.C. experienced a particularly acute government-mandated economic shutdown from March to May. While payroll performance in the District of Columbia’s leisure and hospitality sector declined nearly 60 percent from May 2019 to May 2020, jobs in this sector …
A Tale of Two Cities “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” More than 150 years later, the iconic Dickens quote still strikes a chord. While every recession is different, the pandemic-induced shelter-in-place rules quickly sent the U.S. economy into the deepest recession on record in the second quarter. Fortunately, economic recovery, at least thus far, is proving to be just as swift — in certain areas. While unemployment rates dropped quickly from 14.7 percent in April to 6.7 percent in December, a more detailed look shows widening inequality that has yet to be resolved. For those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, unemployment peaked at only 8.4 percent in April and has since fallen to 3.8 percent — a rate that was once thought to be near the point of equilibrium for the economy. Unemployment rates for those with less than a high school education peaked at 21.2 percent and for those with a high school education, at 17.7 percent. To add to the current volatile environment, the contentious U.S. presidential election kept investors on edge, assessing political as well as economic uncertainty, at least in the near-term. Volatility indices remain somewhat elevated, although …
The situation is a familiar one from the past year: 2020 changed a banner year full of promise into a difficult scenario full of fear and challenges. Jeffrey Rinkov, CEO and chairman of the board at Lee & Associates reflects on how his company took an emphasis on technology and communications infrastructure and used the past year as a time for reflection and a period to promote growth and client engagement. He also discussed trends he’s seeing for the future, the lessons he’s learned from a most unusual year and why he’s feeling optimistic for 2021. Focusing on Clients from the Start It’s hard to believe that less than one year ago, Rinkov’s team was experiencing an industry-wide high of momentum with massive pipelines and robust capital. What happened when the unthinkable came to pass? Rinkov explains that the executive leadership team at Lee & Associates took a moment in the early chaos to pause and evaluate what was critical, “Employee and agent safety, client connectivity and how we could deploy resources throughout our platform in a completely different way to support our agents and their client pursuits and interactions.” Tech savvy, hours of leadership phone calls and ingrained communication …
The ability to find debt and equity financing for acquisitions and new development has been deeply affected by the coronavirus. Heading into 2020, there was plenty of inexpensive capital available to real estate investors and developers. The once wide field of potential lenders has shrunk significantly over the past nine months. And as for equity availability, it will be important in the coming months to be patient and diligent. REBusinessOnline recently spoke with Gary Sopko, senior vice president – structured finance/investment sales of Lee & Associates and principal at Baden Advisors (an affiliate of Lee & Associates) via video conference about his company’s approach to investment sales, debt financing and equity placement for commercial real estate clients in the midst of an unprecedented year. Sopko interprets what the lower loan volume across the board means for the commercial real estate industry, trends he’s seeing and his role in educating borrowers/clients on how to navigate this challenging time. Changing Lender Pools At the start of the pandemic, a variety of lenders were still ready, willing and able to lend; however, as the pandemic continued and shutdowns spread, the lender pool shrunk. Many private debt funds had to suspend lending for a …
For years, interbank offered rates, including USD LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), have been the most-referenced benchmark interest rates in the world. However, global indexing is moving to risk-free rates, including the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the United States, with pivotal milestones taking place between now and the end of 2021. Here’s what this transition means for the multifamily sector, dates to watch for, and steps to take now. View higher resolution version of timeline above here. What is SOFR? SOFR is based on overnight repurchase agreements, with cash borrowers posting U.S. treasuries as collateral with an agreement to buy them back at a specified date. The daily SOFR can be subject to spikes, so agency lenders will use a 30-day compounded average to smooth out volatility based on recommendations from the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC). SOFR has no credit component, so the market will likely accommodate by charging some additional spread for new SOFR-based products. While enough futures and swaps activity has transpired since 2018 to develop the shorter part of a term curve, the longer part of the curve will be addressed by fourth quarter of 2020, particularly as the CME and LCH clearing houses convert …
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Cleveland, Milwaukee & St. Louis Multifamily Forecasts Indicate Case for Caution
In earlier research, we found that investors may find advantageous risk and reward tradeoffs during the pandemic in often overlooked Midwest secondary markets. For the most part, average rent and occupancy metrics in these markets continued to rise throughout the summer, recession notwithstanding. Together, their inviting cap rates, rising NOI and low historic income volatility form a fairly compelling investment predicate. We also found that positive performance attributes were not limited to the region’s most robust economies. Even metropolitan markets that have experienced slow demographic growth — like Cincinnati and Detroit — posted surprisingly good revenue growth. Can the same logic be extended to metropolitan areas experiencing actual demographic decline? A review of recent trends in three “high-yield” markets with negative population growth – Cleveland, Milwaukee and St. Louis – shed some light on the question. View higher resolution version of chart above here. With respect to occupancy, the answer is yes. In fact, property level data published by Yardi suggest that market conditions in each of these metro areas has been constructive since February. Between February and October, average occupancy among stabilized same-store property samples increased by 14 basis points in Cleveland and 10 bps in St. Louis, in …
Investors favor multifamily markets with brisk population growth and meaningful barriers to entry. But can a case be made in turbulent times for slow-growth Midwest cities characterized by weak entry barriers? View higher resolution version of chart above here. Midwest metro areas with relatively healthy demographic growth — Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City come to mind — have posted constructive performance trends during the pandemic recession so far, particularly with respect to rent. Among the 10 largest Midwest markets, Columbus recorded the fastest rent growth over the past three years (18.2 percent, according to Yardi Matrix) and nearly the fastest since the beginning of the pandemic (2.9 percent between February and October). Indeed, Columbus, Indianapolis (2.7 percent) and Kansas City (2.3 percent) respectively recorded the third, fourth and sixth fastest rent trends in the region since February, and each readily topped the -1.1 percent U.S. primary and secondary market average. The fastest rent growth in the region, however, was recorded by two metro areas not blessed with brisk population growth — Cincinnati and Detroit. Between February and October all property rents increased 3.0 percent in Cincinnati and 3.4 percent in Detroit, figures exceeded in only a handful of markets nationally. …