Healthcare has very different drivers when it comes to growth and demand. While highs and lows in the economy influence healthcare in many of the same ways other industries experience, it’s also governed by trends that are unique to how people seek — and pay for — their medical treatments. Chris Jacobson and Susan Wilson, both vice presidents and healthcare advisors for Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services, took some time recently to talk to REBusinessOnline about today’s healthcare real estate trends. Taking a broad look across the sector, some healthcare systems have lost revenue due to suspending elective procedures during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. “It’s going to take them a while to recoup that revenue,” Wilson says. “Additionally, now that they have reopened, they are spacing people out in waiting rooms, so they’re seeing fewer patients. There are currently opportunities for subleases with some major health systems. This could be an opportunity for some of the larger, more successful health systems to take over some of that space.” Jacobson has observed that there are three types of investments occurring right now. The first of those are large healthcare systems presently focused on COVID-19-related care. The …
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In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector
Orange County offers residents all the key elements of the American dream. Its virtues are numerous and faults few. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics ranks the quality of life in the OC 10th highest among the 378 U.S. metros it reports on, just a half-step behind leaders Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. Orange County is a terrific place to live, but is it a good place to invest? Gauging by observed capitalization rate trends, one may conclude that county apartment properties are highly prized gems. Class A trophy properties trade to going-in yields in the 4.00 percent to 4.10 percent area, and Class B and C garden complexes are typically priced to yields in the mid-4s, all only 25 basis points or so behind Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area comparisons. But judging from transaction velocity, one might draw a different conclusion. Only six Orange County multifamily properties of 50 units or more have changed hands since mid-year 2019, and not a single sale has closed since February. Even by the cautious norms of the moment, this stands out as a market in search of price discovery. Slow transaction velocity can be ascribed, in part, to the prevailing buy and …
Someone once remarked that eighty percent of success in life is just showing up. Human experience verifies that being in the right place at the right time often is the intangible ingredient that leads to triumph. The strong performance this year of the Inland Empire multifamily market is a variation on this theme. During the pandemic, many renters sought refuge from the high density and high costs associated with big city life, and the work-from-home phenomenon made this objective feasible. For many Angelinos, Empire living was the best solution — close enough to Los Angeles to maintain contact with family and friends or to go into the office when necessary but substantially less densely settled and more affordable than most L.A. neighborhoods. By way of quantification, the average Riverside and San Bernardino County monthly rent in July was about $1,578 — and that is 28 percent less than the L.A. County average. The percentage savings for Class A space were about 1 percent greater, and parking, an omnipresent issue for Southern Californians, is typically free. The cost economies found in the Empire are more than trivial. Moreover, renters are more likely than in the past to find the unit and …
Reducing the Los Angeles economy to the entertainment industry would be a serious mistake. In fact, the L.A. labor market is highly diversified with world-class healthcare, professional services, biotech and technology clusters providing co-sector leadership — no one-trick pony is this. Nonetheless, the entertainment industry is the single element that separates this metro economy from all others, and its tentacles are long. In its absence, the metro’s financial and professional services, tourism and digital media sectors might seem almost ordinary. Hollywood content production has been curtailed dramatically by social distancing demands. Active filming in the second quarter plummeted 98 percent from the year before, according to nonprofit industry group FilmLA. This has a devastating effect on thousands of employees on industry payrolls and many times more freelancers, sole proprietors and contract employees that make up the bulk of the film and TV industry’s creative workers. Consequently, the L.A. labor market absorbed among the hardest blows dealt by COVID-19. Although second quarter L.A. County payroll employment declined only 12.4 percent year on year, in line with outcomes observed in the Bay Area and San Diego, total employment — a government statistic that includes the self-employed and gig economy workers — plunged …
With a historic drop in oil prices amid a global pandemic, fate dealt Houston a bad hand in 2020, to put it mildly. But this is not the first time the city has seen bleak conditions — and faced them down. In 2015-2016, the metropolitan area was throttled by a double whammy of an oil bust and the Memorial Day and Tax Day floods, decimating a full 10 percent of its multifamily housing stock. Yet, by 2020, the city’s job growth exceeded the national rate for the 25th consecutive month, and its multifamily market was set to deliver nearly 17,000 units, double the volume from 2019. Before the oil crash and COVID-19 pandemic hit, Houston’s increasingly diverse economy meant that its fundamentals were strong, and demand was growing for multifamily. Through hurricanes, floods, tornados, boom-and-bust cycles in the oil and gas markets and more, Houston persevered. Houston has one of largest metropolitan populations in the U.S. and is growing, adding more than a million people since 2010. This 2-percent-per-year average growth is more than twice the 0.7 percent average for the United States. Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas, only Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston have been able to grow at …
As companies extend their work-from-home policies for many traditional office jobs, office leasing in general is undergoing re-evaluation and leasing is slowing. But one sector of office space continues growing as space remains essential: life sciences office, laboratory and manufacturing space. Nowhere does this hold truer than in the Research Triangle in North Carolina. The Triangle occupies a position of power as one of the top five major life sciences centers in the United States. STEM-oriented institutions including Duke, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University provide education, research opportunities and employment for the area’s highly educated workforce. Large life sciences companies (including giants such as Glaxo Smith Kline, Biogen, Lilly and Pfizer) have taken advantage of the area’s lower cost of living to set up research labs and manufacturing space to support technology and healthcare work. A tenant and buyer representative for life sciences, technology and healthcare clients, Marlene Spritzer, Vice President of Lee & Associates Raleigh Durham, has witnessed firms from around the country relocate to the Triangle for years. Even before the pandemic, the area was attractive to businesses due to its wealth of resources and mild climate as well as …
While summer fairs and carnivals are mostly on hold, 2020 has taken us on a wild ride as the COVID-19 pandemic whipsawed the global economy in the first half of the year. The U.S. economy crashed downward in March as shelter-in-place rules drove unemployment to record numbers, surpassing peak levels of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in just one month. U.S. unemployment reached 14.7 percent in April, well above the 10.9 percent peak of the GFC. Including part-time workers who wish to work full-time (the U-6 rate), unemployment reached a staggering 22.8 percent in April. Real GDP fell by 5 percent in the first quarter of the year and by 32.9 percent in the second quarter of the year, the worst decline on record. Politicians scrambled to put a social net under the economy, again quickly surpassing levels of the GFC. The Fed balance sheet swelled by $3 trillion from March to May, more than double the amount during the GFC. Interest rates first spiked as lenders underwrote unforeseen risk, then crashed globally as countries began to backstop their economies. U.S. 10-year treasury yields have remained under 1 percent since early March, the lowest rates on record. But the …
Some stories are just too good not to be true. This may explain in part the outpouring of reports regarding population outflows from the San Francisco Bay Area. Multiple mid-August articles in national newspapers took up the ongoing Silicon Valley exodus. These articles make a convincing case that the COVID-19 pandemic and increased opportunities to work remotely — particularly in the high-tech industry — are prompting many Bay Area residents to consider relocating to more affordable areas, even if remote work causes their incomes to decline. The evidence supporting the theory is by no means entirely anecdotal. The number of owners listing homes for sale has increased significantly, the pace of home price appreciation has decelerated materially (less than 5 percent in May) and apartment rents and occupancy have eroded since winter. It is hard to deny that Peak Northern California is fading in the rearview mirror. This should be no surprise. The Bay Area is not only the most expensive real estate market in the country, it also is one of the most congested. Its many virtues come with a steep price tag, not only in terms of cost of living but also in aspects lumped in the quality …
In economics, the sensitivity of aggregate demand for a product or service to changes in price is defined as its “elasticity.” The elasticity of demand for nonessential goods or goods with a number of ready substitutes is high. Even a small increase in price will produce a large decrease in demand. Conversely, a relatively large price change in the cost of an essential or prized luxury good for which few substitutes exist may have little effect on demand for it. San Francisco real estate is a highly inelastic good. The Bay Area’s potent combination of natural beauty, sublime climate and unique culture make it one of the most coveted destinations in the world. By the same token, its compact size, high population density, seismic risks and antipathy to development constrain supply. For all practical purposes, housing prices are limited by the income that residents can expect to earn rather than the normal interplay of producers and consumers. The innovation and wealth creation generated by the high tech industry added a complex new variable to the equation. More wealth was created during the last 10 years in the 40 miles that lie between the Golden Gate and San Jose than in …
Lenders and investors may be a little wary when approaching deals under the shadow of COVID-19, but opportunities to employ capital strategically when market prices are low can make for long-term opportunities. Many in commercial real estate hope to lay significant groundwork, strengthening their economic trajectories whenever the market recovery begins. Keith Kurland, senior managing director at Walker & Dunlop, serves as co-head of the company’s New York Capital Markets practice and spoke to REBusinessOnline about the business of sourcing and structuring debt and equity financing in the midst of coronavirus. Kurland joined Walker & Dunlop in January of this year, after the company acquired AKS Capital Partners, which was co-founded by Kurland in 2019. Coronavirus Conditions & the Impact on Lender and Investor Interest “Given our diverse and multi-sector client base, we are still actively financing almost every product type,” Kurland says. “While some sectors and deal types may be more challenging than others due to the impact of COVID-19, we are still tasked with supporting our clients to make sure that they’re either being defensive or offensive, depending upon the lifecycle of the projects that they’re currently invested in. Our team is currently marketing and under application with …