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Los Angeles Multifamily

Reducing the Los Angeles economy to the entertainment industry would be a serious mistake. In fact, the L.A. labor market is highly diversified with world-class healthcare, professional services, biotech and technology clusters providing co-sector leadership — no one-trick pony is this. Nonetheless, the entertainment industry is the single element that separates this metro economy from all others, and its tentacles are long. In its absence, the metro’s financial and professional services, tourism and digital media sectors might seem almost ordinary. Hollywood content production has been curtailed dramatically by social distancing demands. Active filming in the second quarter plummeted 98 percent from the year before, according to nonprofit industry group FilmLA. This has a devastating effect on thousands of employees on industry payrolls and many times more freelancers, sole proprietors and contract employees that make up the bulk of the film and TV industry’s creative workers. Consequently, the L.A. labor market absorbed among the hardest blows dealt by COVID-19. Although second quarter L.A. County payroll employment declined only 12.4 percent year on year, in line with outcomes observed in the Bay Area and San Diego, total employment — a government statistic that includes the self-employed and gig economy workers — plunged …

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Tom Fish Houston multifamily

With a historic drop in oil prices amid a global pandemic, fate dealt Houston a bad hand in 2020, to put it mildly. But this is not the first time the city has seen bleak conditions — and faced them down. In 2015-2016, the metropolitan area was throttled by a double whammy of an oil bust and the Memorial Day and Tax Day floods, decimating a full 10 percent of its multifamily housing stock. Yet, by 2020, the city’s job growth exceeded the national rate for the 25th consecutive month, and its multifamily market was set to deliver nearly 17,000 units, double the volume from 2019. Before the oil crash and COVID-19 pandemic hit, Houston’s increasingly diverse economy meant that its fundamentals were strong, and demand was growing for multifamily. Through hurricanes, floods, tornados, boom-and-bust cycles in the oil and gas markets and more, Houston persevered. Houston has one of largest metropolitan populations in the U.S. and is growing, adding more than a million people since 2010. This 2-percent-per-year average growth is more than twice the 0.7 percent average for the United States. Of the 10 largest metropolitan areas, only Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston have been able to grow at …

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Spritzer Lee Associates

As companies extend their work-from-home policies for many traditional office jobs, office leasing in general is undergoing re-evaluation and leasing is slowing. But one sector of office space continues growing as space remains essential: life sciences office, laboratory and manufacturing space. Nowhere does this hold truer than in the Research Triangle in North Carolina. The Triangle occupies a position of power as one of the top five major life sciences centers in the United States. STEM-oriented institutions including Duke, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University provide education, research opportunities and employment for the area’s highly educated workforce. Large life sciences companies (including giants such as Glaxo Smith Kline, Biogen, Lilly and Pfizer) have taken advantage of the area’s lower cost of living to set up research labs and manufacturing space to support technology and healthcare work. A tenant and buyer representative for life sciences, technology and healthcare clients, Marlene Spritzer, Vice President of Lee & Associates Raleigh Durham, has witnessed firms from around the country relocate to the Triangle for years. Even before the pandemic, the area was attractive to businesses due to its wealth of resources and mild climate as well as …

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Theobald Walker Dunlop460

While summer fairs and carnivals are mostly on hold, 2020 has taken us on a wild ride as the COVID-19 pandemic whipsawed the global economy in the first half of the year. The U.S. economy crashed downward in March as shelter-in-place rules drove unemployment to record numbers, surpassing peak levels of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in just one month. U.S. unemployment reached 14.7 percent in April, well above the 10.9 percent peak of the GFC. Including part-time workers who wish to work full-time (the U-6 rate), unemployment reached a staggering 22.8 percent in April. Real GDP fell by 5 percent in the first quarter of the year and by 32.9 percent in the second quarter of the year, the worst decline on record. Politicians scrambled to put a social net under the economy, again quickly surpassing levels of the GFC. The Fed balance sheet swelled by $3 trillion from March to May, more than double the amount during the GFC. Interest rates first spiked as lenders underwrote unforeseen risk, then crashed globally as countries began to backstop their economies. U.S. 10-year treasury yields have remained under 1 percent since early March, the lowest rates on record. But the …

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San Jose Rent and Occupancy rev460

Some stories are just too good not to be true. This may explain in part the outpouring of reports regarding population outflows from the San Francisco Bay Area. Multiple mid-August articles in national newspapers took up the ongoing Silicon Valley exodus. These articles make a convincing case that the COVID-19 pandemic and increased opportunities to work remotely — particularly in the high-tech industry — are prompting many Bay Area residents to consider relocating to more affordable areas, even if remote work causes their incomes to decline. The evidence supporting the theory is by no means entirely anecdotal. The number of owners listing homes for sale has increased significantly, the pace of home price appreciation has decelerated materially (less than 5 percent in May) and apartment rents and occupancy have eroded since winter. It is hard to deny that Peak Northern California is fading in the rearview mirror. This should be no surprise. The Bay Area is not only the most expensive real estate market in the country, it also is one of the most congested. Its many virtues come with a steep price tag, not only in terms of cost of living but also in aspects lumped in the quality …

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San Francisco Rent and Occupancy

In economics, the sensitivity of aggregate demand for a product or service to changes in price is defined as its “elasticity.” The elasticity of demand for nonessential goods or goods with a number of ready substitutes is high. Even a small increase in price will produce a large decrease in demand. Conversely, a relatively large price change in the cost of an essential or prized luxury good for which few substitutes exist may have little effect on demand for it. San Francisco real estate is a highly inelastic good. The Bay Area’s potent combination of natural beauty, sublime climate and unique culture make it one of the most coveted destinations in the world. By the same token, its compact size, high population density, seismic risks and antipathy to development constrain supply. For all practical purposes, housing prices are limited by the income that residents can expect to earn rather than the normal interplay of producers and consumers. The innovation and wealth creation generated by the high tech industry added a complex new variable to the equation. More wealth was created during the last 10 years in the 40 miles that lie between the Golden Gate and San Jose than in …

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Kurland Walker Dunlop

Lenders and investors may be a little wary when approaching deals under the shadow of COVID-19, but opportunities to employ capital strategically when market prices are low can make for long-term opportunities. Many in commercial real estate hope to lay significant groundwork, strengthening their economic trajectories whenever the market recovery begins. Keith Kurland, senior managing director at Walker & Dunlop, serves as co-head of the company’s New York Capital Markets practice and spoke to REBusinessOnline about the business of sourcing and structuring debt and equity financing in the midst of coronavirus. Kurland joined Walker & Dunlop in January of this year, after the company acquired AKS Capital Partners, which was co-founded by Kurland in 2019. Coronavirus Conditions & the Impact on Lender and Investor Interest “Given our diverse and multi-sector client base, we are still actively financing almost every product type,” Kurland says. “While some sectors and deal types may be more challenging than others due to the impact of COVID-19, we are still tasked with supporting our clients to make sure that they’re either being defensive or offensive, depending upon the lifecycle of the projects that they’re currently invested in. Our team is currently marketing and under application with …

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Portland Multifamily Rent Occupancy460x345

Five months into the pandemic, fissures are beginning to form in the foundation of the multifamily market. Through the spring leasing season, liquidity from enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and a yearning for stability in uncertain times were enough to maintain occupancy near pre-coronavirus levels and to provide something of a buttress for rents. As spring turned to summer, however, winds seemed to change direction, tenant patience began to fray and property performance waned. West Coast cities with high technology exposure were the first to exhibit material revenue attrition. Reduced employment and income prospects led many renters to reconsider the efficacy of paying the highest rents in the country. Many tenants chose instead to relocate to more affordable areas when leases expired (as many do during the spring leasing season) or simply vacated and broke existing leases. Rents in the San Francisco Bay Area have declined by about 4 percent since the beginning of the year, and as much as 9 percent over the last 12 months. More affordable markets, including Portland, also experienced softening, but to a lesser degree. While fleeing tenants apparently generated a “renter’s market” in San Francisco, absorption in a sample of 919 Portland properties surveyed by …

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Seattle Multifamily Rent and Occupancy

In the realm of apartment market research, Seattle represents a bellwether of sorts these days, where broader trends and themes can be parsed. Seattle’s economy, population and real estate landscape have grown at rates previously considered impossible in a primary market. The city stands at the veritable intersection of technological and generational change — the corner of Large Cap Tech Boulevard and Millennial Street — and it has developed into the avatar of the infill, wood-frame mid-rise design touchpoint that defines so much of today’s urban apartment architecture. What happens here will reveal some of the trends likely to follow in similar markets — from Raleigh to Portland. Seattle was also the first major U.S. metropolitan market to grapple with the novel coronavirus, so the path that it follows will provide some insight into how the American multifamily market will mutate as we adjust to “life in the time of COVID,” to borrow a note from Garcia Marquez. By the same token, the Jet City faces the prospect of digesting an enormous multifamily supply pipeline that was, for the most part, conceived for the pre-COVID-19 world. The manner in which this supply is absorbed will speak volumes about how the …

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RED Capital San Antonio Multifamily

During the great multifamily bull market of this passing decade, investors became increasingly comfortable with exposure to highly volatile metropolitan markets. In an era when it was difficult to make a bad investment decision, the most lucrative were, in most cases, located in areas of the country known for their roller-coaster real estate cycles. Indeed, it seemed as though a purchase capitalization rate could never be too low if an asset was located in one of the primary markets. Volatility was an ally, not a foe — an investment feature, not a bug. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and its attendant recession, however, volatility appears to have switched allegiances. The winds now favor, perhaps, the stable, predictable tortoises over the high-flying hares. In high-cost markets, the number of renters considering relocating to more affordable area codes has skyrocketed, and in the work-from-home era, this has become more of an achievable goal than an inchoate urge. For example, the San Francisco Apartment Association reported that 7.5 percent of tenants in the city — where rents increased at a 6.1 percent compound annual rate since 2010 — simply broke their leases in the three months that ended in May, moving …

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