Heartland Feature Archive

By Mary Cook, Mary Cook Associates As a commercial interiors firm, a question we hear a lot recently is “Are multifamily developers renovating amenities because of the pandemic?” The answer is a bit more nuanced than a straight “yes” or “no.” No, entire amenity floors are not being ripped out and re-thought in direct response to changes stemming from the pandemic. But yes, long-term lifestyle trends are emerging from the pandemic that should be a factor when redesigning amenity spaces for other reasons — whether they aren’t resonating with residents as anticipated, or simply look a bit outdated. After all, the key to creating successful, appealing amenities is understanding the attitudes and preferences of the residents that will use them. With that in mind, here are four priorities owners and operators should focus on when renovating amenities in a post-COVID world: Indoor-outdoor connections Early in the pandemic, the ability to open to the outdoors was the No. 1 factor that allowed indoor amenities to continue functioning. One year later and access to open-air amenities is still a top feature, according to Rent Café. And it’s easy to see why. People behave differently outside, feeling more at ease and comfortable, and …

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DES PLAINES, ILL. — When reflecting on the future of the economy and its recovery, sometimes it’s good to look back. For instance, one of the lessons learned from the pandemic of 1918 was that people will make up for lost time, says Scott Brown, chief economist for Raymond James. “That’s one of the reasons we had the Roaring ’20s.” Brown’s remarks came during the opening session of CORFAC International’s virtual spring conference on Wednesday, March 17. Brown hosted an hour-long panel on what’s driving the economy as well as the outlook for commercial real estate performance. Americans have made substantial gains in consumer spending on durable goods, according to Brown. Examples include the sales of motor vehicles, which have trended upward. Year-over-year increases in the consumer price index are likely to reach 3 percent this spring, but that is viewed as a rebound from low figures a year earlier. Inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed that figure. Keep in mind that government debt does not drive inflation, pointed out Brown. According to the economist, stimulus checks have not fueled a great deal of spending as Americans have utilized 70 to 80 percent …

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With light emerging at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel thanks to the rollout of a vaccine, general contractors are confident of an uptick in business activity in 2021 following a year in which many projects were put on hold. But that optimism is clouded slightly by the high cost of materials, particularly lumber. Michael Sullivan Jr., CEO and founder of Des Plaines, Illinois-based Peak Construction Corp., says his company is prepared to absorb more of the rising costs this year than it did in 2020. Last year, many developers that Peak worked with were willing to take on the increased costs simply because they wanted to continue operating during the pandemic. “It appears that 2021 will change from that pattern, and we expect to see significant increased costs for many materials, subcontractors, insurance premiums and costs attributable to modified operating practices in the field,” says Sullivan. These cost escalations will erode profit margins despite increased revenues, he predicts. Adam Miller, president of Summit Design + Build LLC in Chicago, says lumber prices are nearly double what they were in September 2019. The reason is threefold: fires in the lumber source forests of the Northwest U.S.; disruptions and delays at …

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The impact of COVID-19 on the multifamily sector may not have been as severe as its effect on the retail or office asset classes, but there are still many ways that those professionals active in the multifamily space adapted to pandemic-driven changes. Some of these adjustments, such as virtual apartment tours, are likely permanent. Here are four pandemic-related trends expected to influence the multifamily sector in 2021, according to a roundup of Midwest-based real estate experts. Incorporating biophilic design With the COVID-19 pandemic encouraging Americans to stay outdoors for gatherings in effort to reduce transmission of the virus, there is a greater emphasis on the outdoors and nature. Expect multifamily developers to focus more on bringing the outdoors in via building designs, floor plans and amenities. Large outdoor terraces and rooftop amenity areas are becoming increasingly prevalent in new projects, particularly those in urban environments. At Optima Lakeview, a Chicago-area multifamily project currently under construction, developer Optima Inc. incorporated a landscaped interior atrium that will run through the building’s core and bring in natural light. “Green spaces not only improve the air quality for our residents but also those living near our buildings because vertical gardens filter pollutants and carbon …

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Cleveland, Milwaukee, St. Louis multifamily

In earlier research, we found that investors may find advantageous risk and reward tradeoffs during the pandemic in often overlooked Midwest secondary markets. For the most part, average rent and occupancy metrics in these markets continued to rise throughout the summer, recession notwithstanding. Together, their inviting cap rates, rising NOI and low historic income volatility form a fairly compelling investment predicate. We also found that positive performance attributes were not limited to the region’s most robust economies. Even metropolitan markets that have experienced slow demographic growth — like Cincinnati and Detroit — posted surprisingly good revenue growth. Can the same logic be extended to metropolitan areas experiencing actual demographic decline? A review of recent trends in three “high-yield” markets with negative population growth – Cleveland, Milwaukee and St. Louis – shed some light on the question. View higher resolution version of chart above here. With respect to occupancy, the answer is yes. In fact, property level data published by Yardi suggest that market conditions in each of these metro areas has been constructive since February. Between February and October, average occupancy among stabilized same-store property samples increased by 14 basis points in Cleveland and 10 bps in St. Louis, in …

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Cincinnati Detroit rent occupancy

Investors favor multifamily markets with brisk population growth and meaningful barriers to entry. But can a case be made in turbulent times for slow-growth Midwest cities characterized by weak entry barriers? View higher resolution version of chart above here. Midwest metro areas with relatively healthy demographic growth — Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City come to mind — have posted constructive performance trends during the pandemic recession so far, particularly with respect to rent. Among the 10 largest Midwest markets, Columbus recorded the fastest rent growth over the past three years (18.2 percent, according to Yardi Matrix) and nearly the fastest since the beginning of the pandemic (2.9 percent between February and October). Indeed, Columbus, Indianapolis (2.7 percent) and Kansas City (2.3 percent) respectively recorded the third, fourth and sixth fastest rent trends in the region since February, and each readily topped the -1.1 percent U.S. primary and secondary market average. The fastest rent growth in the region, however, was recorded by two metro areas not blessed with brisk population growth — Cincinnati and Detroit. Between February and October all property rents increased 3.0 percent in Cincinnati and 3.4 percent in Detroit, figures exceeded in only a handful of markets nationally. …

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Secondary Midwest Markets

More than a few column inches in multifamily media this year were dedicated to the implications of coronavirus on the housing preferences of renter households. Many theorize that the pandemic is leading householders to reexamine their attachment to urban life and consider suburban alternatives that offer larger floor plans, better schools, free parking and unit access without an elevator ride. Available data suggest there is something to this notion. Occupancy and rent in core urban neighborhoods in the primary markets have declined, substantially in the highest-cost cities. Suburban performance, by contrast, is strengthening. What is less certain is whether the same phenomenon is working to the benefit of secondary markets as well as big city suburbs. The jury is still out but investors already have stepped up acquisitions in the Sunbelt growth markets to exploit the opportunity — Austin and Phoenix were among the nine most active property markets in the third quarter, and Raleigh and Charlotte were just a step behind – but what of the staid and stable Midwest? Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City (the “Midwest Three”) stand out among Midwest cities as the secondary markets most likely to attract gateway city refugees. Each offers renters most of …

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Minneapolis Rent Occupancy

The Minneapolis metropolitan area made plenty of headlines in 2020, and much of the news wasn’t good. The social fabric was frayed, and property damage estimated at between $250 million and $500 million ensued. On the surface, the Twin Cities appear unlikely sources of stability and relative safety for multifamily investors, and yet market performance and property value trends have so far proven resilient in the face of adversity. In comparison to many of the primary markets and its regional rival, Chicago, Minneapolis has navigated the effects of the pandemic recession remarkably well and may represent an attractive option for investors who remain committed to the urban mid-rise model, as well as those considering increased exposure to suburban situations. The Minneapolis economy was by no means immune to the effects of public health-related lockdowns. Payroll employment plunged by 270,000 jobs in March and April, representing about 13.3 percent of the February metro total. Although severe, pandemic losses fell below the national average (U.S. payrolls fell 14.6 percent) and were comparable to those recorded in Chicago and Milwaukee. Since April, the Minneapolis labor market has made considerable headway. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.9 percent in August, materially lower than the …

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Chicago Rent Occupancy

Multifamily investors prefer to concentrate capital in the primary markets. Although prices are steep and cap rates low, the gateway cities offer private equity and institutional buyers the young, affluent tenants, economic diversification, deep trough of performance data and property market liquidity that can’t be found in smaller cities. Gateway cities offer these assets…until they don’t. The pandemic recession has turned the usual way of looking at things upside down. At least for the moment, tenants are fleeing the high costs and perceived dangers of dense urban living for the relative safety and larger floor plans found in suburbs and, in some cases, secondary and tertiary markets. The impact on property performance is significant. In the modern urban mid- and high-rise buildings favored by large portfolio investors, occupancy and rents are down materially, trimming forward-looking net operating income 15 percent or more in many Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco buildings. Determining fair asset value is nearly impossible under the circumstances. Buyers still may be willing to bid at prices generating deeply sub-4 percent initial yields but only against conservatively underwritten NOI levels that discount an extended period of performance weakness. Few owners are willing to realize the resulting …

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KANSAS CITY, MO. — The COVID-19 pandemic has continued to highlight the importance of strong tenant-landlord relationships, particularly in the retail sector. Tyler Enders, co-owner of local Kansas City shop Made in KC, works with roughly 10 different landlords and has experienced a variety of different approaches to the COVID-19 conversation. “Some local landlords have been very communicative and have come to us with a creative solution. Others have been responding late and are bogged down,” said Enders. “Ultimately, we’ll continue to look at vibrant centers, but we’re going to care way more about who owns it than we have in the past.” Enders’ comments are indicative of the importance of relationships in today’s marketplace. Enders joined a panel of retail experts Wednesday, Sept. 16 for a webinar entitled “Greater Kansas City Retail Outlook” hosted by Heartland Real Estate Business and Shopping Center Business. Fellow panelists included David Block, principal and president of Block & Co.; Erin Johnston, vice president of retail brokerage for Copaken Brooks Commercial Real Estate; Dan Lowe, managing partner for Legacy Development; and Andy Crimmins, founding partner of Crossroads Retail Group. David Waters, partner with Lathrop GPM, moderated the discussion. Block said that his firm has …

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