Despite the negative impact of the pandemic on many areas within commercial real estate, industrial assets continue to attract interest as a favored sector of many lenders and investors. The industrial market is outperforming others throughout this period of disruption. E-commerce growth has resulted in growth in the industrial sector as the need for last-mile delivery and third-party logistics space increases. Similarly, urban infill demand has grown in supply-constrained markets. Finally, the supercharging the industrial sector has created a need for new construction in this asset class, and construction lenders are finding new opportunities to earn higher returns. View higher resolution version of chart above here. Industrial Market Trends In major urban markets — New York City included — residents increasingly expect two-day delivery, next-day delivery and even same-day delivery. As a result of these shrinking delivery windows, the need for local distribution centers and last-mile facilities has increased significantly. The way people purchase and receive products has changed drastically, and the industrial sector must adjust to meet the demand. The nation-wide stay-at-home orders implemented at the outset of the pandemic caused e-commerce to experience exponential growth. People who had never shopped online began adapting to this trend. This created …
Northeast Feature Archive
Lenders and investors may be a little wary when approaching deals under the shadow of COVID-19, but opportunities to employ capital strategically when market prices are low can make for long-term opportunities. Many in commercial real estate hope to lay significant groundwork, strengthening their economic trajectories whenever the market recovery begins. Keith Kurland, senior managing director at Walker & Dunlop, serves as co-head of the company’s New York Capital Markets practice and spoke to REBusinessOnline about the business of sourcing and structuring debt and equity financing in the midst of coronavirus. Kurland joined Walker & Dunlop in January of this year, after the company acquired AKS Capital Partners, which was co-founded by Kurland in 2019. Coronavirus Conditions & the Impact on Lender and Investor Interest “Given our diverse and multi-sector client base, we are still actively financing almost every product type,” Kurland says. “While some sectors and deal types may be more challenging than others due to the impact of COVID-19, we are still tasked with supporting our clients to make sure that they’re either being defensive or offensive, depending upon the lifecycle of the projects that they’re currently invested in. Our team is currently marketing and under application with …
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Free Returns: How Reverse Logistics Impacts Industrial Real Estate
The industrial sector has been the preferred asset class of commercial real estate in recent years. “The rate of return for industrial real estate has been higher than that of any other class for nearly half a decade,” says Jeff Rinkov, CEO of Lee & Associates. These rates of return are the result of permanent changes in consumer behavior and preferences — and recent events are driving more rapid changes in consumers’ e-commerce shopping. Though it remains to be seen how the economic impact of the coronavirus will influence various sectors of real estate, the pandemic has meant a sudden uptick in reliance upon industrial real estate as consumers turn to online shopping in the face of in-store shortages and shelter-at-home orders or social distancing practices. As brick-and-mortar stores close temporarily, retail companies and logistics professionals grapple with the increased volume of both online orders and e-commerce returns. What do facilities for e-commerce look like as customer expectations for e-commerce grow? How do companies process returns in an efficient and cost-effective manner, a critical element of success for e-commerce companies? Consumers increasingly prefer to shop online instead of going to brick and mortar stores. E-commerce sales accounted for more than …
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JLL: Coronavirus Is Impacting Retail Supply Chains
With the stock market dropping to lows unprecedented since the Great Recession on Monday and the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring the outbreak of COVID-19 a pandemic, concerns are now rising regarding coronavirus’ long-term impact on domestic investments. But will the disease have any impact on brick-and-mortar retail? According to a research report from JLL, while retail supply chains have already been affected, the health of retail as whole depends heavily on how long the pandemic lasts. Certain sectors have already been impacted, and those in the industry can model their current economic outlook on the course SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) took in 2003. However, whether that model will hold as the pandemic evolves remains to be seen. The JLL report explains that the type of short-lived and limited outbreak created by SARS mainly affects the “first and second quarters with many retailers feeling impacts of a disrupted supply chain, but with a subsequent rebound in the following quarters.” Sectors already affected include inventory and complex supply lines. Chinese-manufactured goods may not be able to reach retailers in the coming weeks to months, as the retailers’ existing supply diminishes. Fashion stocks, especially for luxury retailers dependent on Chinese consumers …
The modern craft beer brewery has emerged as a niche community anchor with flexible business models and loyal customer bases across the United States, particularly in the Northeast. Combining elements of retail, industrial and hospitality models, craft breweries have quickly become one of the most dynamic and trendy business types in major cities and small towns, alike. Some of the largest and most popular craft breweries in the United States are based in the Northeast, including the two largest: Pennsylvania-based D.G. Yuengling & Son Inc.; and Boston Beer Co., the parent company of Samuel Adams. Vermont has the most breweries per capita in the United States with more than 66, according to the national Brewers Association’s most recent nationwide census in 2018. The census identified more than 155 breweries in Massachusetts and more than 354 breweries in Pennsylvania — and those numbers have only increased over time. “Massachusetts and Pennsylvania both have a long history in brewing, and there’s a lot of variation from region to region — even city to city,” says Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association. “Breweries appeal to their hyper-local community and also can bring in a lot of tourism and outside dollars. During …
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Can Boston Keep Up with Multifamily Demand?
Think Boston multifamily is overbuilt or overheated? Think again. Due to superb fundamentals and a slowing development pipeline, Boston is now regarded as the number one metro area for multifamily investment. From 2019–2030, Boston will need to add 51,007 units to accommodate population growth, an average of 4,637 units per year. Recent development (2014–2017) averaged 3,334 units per year. Population and job growth are expected to remain strong, fueling continued demand for multifamily housing and countering arguments that the Boston market is overbuilt. Many developers nationally are interested in the market. The construction pipeline for multifamily properties features organizations with headquarters as far away as Portland, Phoenix, and Dallas. The Houston-based Hanover Company, for example, has four properties totaling over a thousand units in the Boston development pipeline. Boston is a seller’s market as well, with deals typically attracting multiple bids, and it is easy to see why. For investors, Boston is a market with an average cap rate of roughly 4.5 percent. This is the same cap rate as Raleigh or Central Florida — two markets generally considered to be more volatile than Boston in the case of a recession. A Reliable Hub Becomes a Vibrant City “Historically, people …
Foreign investors in U.S. commercial real estate are on pace this year to sell more assets than they acquire on an annual basis — something that hasn’t happened in seven years. Through the first three quarters of 2019, foreign investment in U.S. commercial real estate totaled $30 billion, compared with $60.6 billion during the same period in 2018, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA).The New York City-based commercial property research firm tracks deals of $2.5 million and above. To be sure, the lack of large entity and portfolio transactions driven by foreign buyers that beefed up last year’s cross-border sales volume are partly to blame. But so are a number of other factors, which have largely relegated many foreign investors to the sidelines. Those factors include premium pricing, a prolonged period of high hedging costs, and an economic expansion that has lasted so long that it resembles the second game of a baseball double-header. The falloff in demand has affected core office assets in major markets in particular, say commercial property experts, but cross-border buyers continue to expand into secondary markets and a broader range of properties (see sidebar). Nevertheless, commercial property experts remain confident that foreign investors are on …
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Robust Industrial Investment Shows No Signs of Slowing
by Jaime Lackey
Real estate buyers spent a record-setting amount of cash in the sector in the third quarter and remain bullish on the properties amid healthy absorption and rent growth. The industrial real estate sector, traditionally known as the land of big, boring boxes, has become the darling of real estate amid the growth of e-commerce. Investors have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into industrial properties over the last five years alone, and not even the prospect of new construction potentially outpacing demand has tempered enthusiasm. “With online sales continuing to grow at a faster rate than general retail sales, there is no lack of continued tenant demand for industrial warehouses and flex and distribution space,” says Rebecca Wells, CCIM, senior vice president and principal of commercial real estate service provider Lee & Associates in Indianapolis. “We expect investment activity will continue at a red-hot rate through the end of this year and into 2020.” Industrial sales totaled $40.6 billion in the third quarter this year, the highest dollar volume ever recorded in a single quarter for the property type, according to Real Capital Analytics, a New York-based researcher that tracks commercial property deals of $2.5 million or more. An $18.7 …
Aging-in-Place Technology Has Its Limits, Says a Reassuring InterFace Seniors Housing Panel
by Jeff Shaw
PHILADELPHIA — Will today’s emerging aging-in-place technologies, designed to help the elderly remain in their own home for a longer period of time, lead to significantly reduced demand for seniors housing? The question was a hot topic at the InterFace Seniors Housing Northeast conference last Thursday in Philadelphia following a recent front-page article in The Wall Street Journal under the following headline: “Boomers Want to Stay Home. Senior Housing Now Faces Budding Glut.” The piece argues that aging-in-place technology poses a challenge to builders of senior living communities, particularly at a time when developers are adding new supply at a healthy clip and occupancy rates remain relatively stagnant. Nationwide, the occupancy rate for seniors housing (assisted living and independent living combined) was 88 percent in the third quarter of 2019, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, but down from 90.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) based in Annapolis, Maryland. Seniors housing developers added 21,332 units in 2018, more than double the number added in 2014, The Journal reported based on NIC data. Venture capitalists and other companies are expected to invest about $1 billion this year …
Owners of properties with environmental contamination already carry the financial burden of removal or remediation costs, whether they cure the problem themselves or sell to a buyer who is sure to deduct anticipated remediation expenses from the sale price. Fortunately, New York law allows those property owners to reduce their property tax burden to reflect their asset’s compromised value. Tax Types Most local governments in the United States impose a property tax on real estate as a primary source of revenue, levied and calculated by either ad valorem or specific means. Latin for “according to value,” ad valorem taxes are imposed proportionately based upon thecurrent market value of the property. Thus, the higher the market value, the higher the real estate tax. Specific taxes, on the other hand, are fixed sums without regard to underlying real estate value. School, county and town governments nearly always compute real property taxes using the ad valorem method, whereas lighting, garbage or sewer districts typically apply specific taxes. Because school and county/town taxes account for the overwhelming majority of a property tax bill, property owners frequently use assessment litigation concerning the market value of the subject property to reduce assessments and, as a result, …