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How Artificial Intelligence Benefits Commercial Real Estate Investors

by Amy Works

Advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning are slowly changing the processes of buying and selling commercial real estate. Although widespread adaptation appears to be several years off, the application of new technology within commercial real estate appears inevitable and of enormous value. In particular, the opportunity appears greatest within the realm of property valuations, according to David Mitchell, business intelligence and operational specialist with Chicago-based Alliant Credit Union. “Developing more accurate evaluation techniques will help set healthy interest rates and lower credit costs,” he says. “This points to more efficient loan capital in the market. That’s the ultimate outcome: more efficiency and more liquidity in the market.” Valuing commercial real estate is a tremendous exercise in synthesizing information, Mitchell notes. “Understanding factors such as rental rates, vacancy rates, employment growth, demographics, new construction supply, interest rates and capital availability are not simple propositions. Understanding the interdependence of these variables, as well as accounting for historical data and knowing how to properly weight the variables is more than any one human can synthesize in a rigorous manner.” By contrast, a machine-learning model excels in an environment with massive amounts of interdependent variables. In many cases, the algorithms used in machine …

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InterFace Seniors Housing Midwest, Chicago
Conference CoverageFeaturesMultifamilySeniors Housing

Smart Seniors Housing Developers Know How to Utilize Market Studies, Say InterFace Panelists

by Jeff Shaw

CHICAGO — What are the limitations of a market study? In light of overbuilding concerns in some major metros, it’s a salient question. J.P. LoMonaco, president of Valuation & Information Group, moderated a panel discussion on the impact of market studies on new development during the InterFace Seniors Housing Midwest conference in June. The textbook definition of a market study is a comparison of supply and demand within a defined geographic area. It is a risk-assessment tool. Rick Banas, vice president of development and positioning at Gardant Management Solutions, considers a market study to be a snapshot in time that can help an owner or operator formulate strategies for developing a community. “[A market study] helps you identify red flags, caution flags. It may provide a green light, but it is not the only element that can give you an indication whether a project is a go, no go, or whether it is going to be successful,” said Banas. Dave Erickson, vice president of real estate development for the Ryan Cos., said one step he takes early on in the market study process is to mesh the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) data on supply and …

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FeaturesIndustrial

A New Era for Industrial Design

by Taylor Williams

Demand for industrial space is soaring and the growth of e-commerce has opened the doors for more competitors to enter the freight and logistics spaces. In addition, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) notes that year-to-date, the United States has added 200,000 new positions in the manufacturing sector, greatly increasing the demand for new industrial space. The advent of new technology is changing the face of the sector’s day-to-day operations. The rising influence of cloud computing and other forms of software that track inventories and model ideal production rates allow for more seamless manufacturing. Automated racking and shelving systems have increased the amount of vertical storage space available to operators and helped get product out the door with greater efficiency. These innovations have yet to significantly eat into industrial job growth, but they are already impacting design trends for new projects. “At this point we are only seeing a minor impact from automation, but it’s clearly present,” says Michael Scheurich, CEO of Arch-Con Construction, a general contracting firm with offices in Dallas and Houston. “Developers are figuring on smaller aisles between racking for conveyors and automated pickup equipment. This allows them to squeeze in more racks …

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FeaturesRetail

Retailers Should Put Purpose Before Product, Experience Before Sales

by Katie Sloan

Retail Insight recently sat down with Hernan Martinez, CEO of Cuestamoras Urbanismo, to discuss the changing landscape of shopping centers as they become more of a community center for the cities they service. Martinez has firsthand experience with this as he and his company develop Oxigeno, a mixed-use project in Costa Rica that offers four unique zones that incorporate entertainment, shopping, dining, green areas, and the local Heredia neighborhood. Do you think today’s convenience-driven, instant-gratification world is one reason we seem to be seeing an uptick in mixed-use projects?  The uptick of mixed-use projects is the result of several important urban and consumer trends. The resurgence of mixed-use, town and city centers derives, in big part, from the recognition of the negative impacts of urban sprawl. It is now generally recognized that development of car-centric, low-density, single-use urban areas has detrimental economic, environmental and social consequences. These can include higher infrastructure costs, the loss of natural land to accommodate a limited number of people and the disruption of neighborhoods’ social fabric. Cuestamoras Urbanismo is committed to the development of open (non-gated), dynamic urban communities and projects. We strongly believe that mixed-use projects play an important part in the creation of …

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The Collective on 4th, a student housing project in Portland, Oregon
Features

The Counselors of Real Estate: Interest Rates and Economy Are Top Current Issues Affecting Real Estate

by Jeff Shaw

CHICAGO — The top two issues facing both residential and commercial real estate today are rising interest rates and the health of the general U.S. economy. That’s according to The Counselors of Real Estate, a Chicago-based consortium of high-profile property professionals, which has issued its annual list of the “Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate” for 2018 and 2019. Joseph Nahas Jr., the 2018 chair of The Counselors of Real Estate, made the announcement during the keynote address of this year’s National Association of Real Estate Editors conference in Las Vegas. The year’s list is broken down into the top five current and top five longer-term issues being seen for commercial and residential real estate today. The commercial and residential real estate markets are experiencing changes, including decreasing demand for commercial property and higher home mortgage rates as a result of rising interest rates. The Counselors also report that these rate increases are limiting value appreciation for commercial real estate, while lack of wage growth for all but the wealthiest population segment is limiting consumer spending, which the economy needs for growth. The group cited a 2017 Brookings Institution study to back up this argument, which showed real wages for …

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InterFace Panel: Seniors Housing Lenders’ Scrutiny of Potential Deals Increases As Market Conditions Shift

by Jeff Shaw

Billy Meyer, managing director of Seattle-based Columbia Pacific Advisors, doesn’t mince words when talking about the bridge lender’s cautious approach to financing seniors housing product today. “We don’t underwrite hope as a strategy anymore. It’s just not a good execution strategy, we believe.” Against the backdrop of elevated levels of construction, rising interest rates and operational challenges in seniors housing, Columbia Pacific Advisors is scrutinizing operators heavily before providing funding. “We’re bridge lenders. That is all that we do. Our average loan is 19 months. It’s a short horizon of how far away our exit is, so we need to make sure that [pathway] is very real and clear,” said Meyer. Meyer’s insights on the loan underwriting process came during InterFace Seniors Housing Midwest on Thursday, June 7. The one-day event, which took place at the recently opened four-star Marriott Marquis Chicago at McCormick Place, drew 372 professionals from across the region. Panel discussions focused on everything from design to development to growth strategies for operators, in addition to the state of the capital markets. Moderated by Mike Taylor, senior vice president and group manager for healthcare lending at First Midwest Bank, the capital markets panel also included Ari Adlerstein, …

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FeaturesLoansMultifamilyProperty TypeStudent Housing

Student Housing Lenders Experiencing a Particularly Busy 2018

by David Cohen

Lending intermediaries are not seeing any slowdown in the availability of capital for the student housing sector in 2018. Many report that the sector is a favorite and a well-known quantity among lenders, one that they want to count among their specialties. “Historically, student housing was viewed only as a subset of multifamily, but we have seen a distinct departure from that mindset throughout the current cycle,” says Benjamin Roelke, senior vice president, debt and structured finance, CBRE Capital Markets. “Lenders are getting smarter about student housing and are asking the right questions more often than not.” “Our high volume construction lending relationships view student housing as a stand-alone product type and understand that each market should be evaluated on its own merits, but in uncertain times there are macro forces that can alter risk evaluation standards generally, with the effects trickling down to specialized product types,” says Tim Bradley, founder and CEO of TSB Capital Advisors. Student Housing — On Its Own Lenders increasingly view student housing as an attractive stand-alone asset class. Its strong performance during the Great Recession prompted many lenders to closely study and understand the sector, with many growing their lending platforms alongside strong developer …

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CaliforniaFeaturesIndustrialRetailWesternWestern Feature Archive

Retail Drives Industrial Growth Through Much of the Western U.S.

by David Cohen

The industrial market is enjoying a moment in the sun throughout the West. Much of this is due to the retail sector’s continued technological advances, which have placed increasing demand on speedy delivery as manufacturing, distribution and warehousing needs are more important now than ever. “The market fundamentals for industrial properties are the best they have ever been,” says Bob O’Neill, senior vice president of acquisitions at CapRock Partners in Newport Beach, Calif. “Industrial absorption, lease rates and sales prices are at all-time highs, while market vacancies are at historic lows and construction in the Western United States remains in check.” Michael Collins, vice chairman of DAUM Commercial Real Estate Services in Los Angeles, has witnessed a similar trend in his market. He notes industrial assets in LA typically sell for $140 per square foot to $200 per square foot, with a vacancy rate of less than 2 percent in Southern California. “Developable land is becoming more scarce and the Los Angeles County industrial marketplace remains very vibrant,” he notes. “Lease rates throughout Southern California have reached an all-time high and sales values are at unprecedented highs, with actual prices based on building age, location, functionality and amenities.” Those looking …

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FeaturesSeniors Housing

Margaret Wylde’s Message to Seniors Housing: Do a Better Job of Understanding Customers

by Jeff Shaw

CHICAGO — There is one surefire way to make sales hum in seniors housing, says Margaret Wylde, an industry consultant who has conducted research in this niche property sector for 34 years. Know who your customer is, the product they want and how much they will pay to get what they want. “If you deliver what they actually want, they actually pay more and feel there is value for the dollar spent,” says Wylde, CEO of Oxford, Miss.-based ProMatura Group. The problem is the industry’s knowledge of customers is “not good,” Wylde is quick to add. “We know them in a generic manner. We know their age, we know how many of them there are, and we know how much money [they have]. But we don’t know who they are. And once they get to that golden age, we think they want seniors housing, and that everybody who wants seniors housing is exactly the same because we are giving them a list of stuff.” What’s worse, she believes, is that the industry is by and large chasing the luxury market, which is less than 10 percent of the potential market. “The middle market is 320 percent larger than the market …

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Features

Economist: Trade Disruption, Not Rate Hikes, Is Real Concern for Commercial Real Estate

by Taylor Williams

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Federal Reserve opted Wednesday to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point. The overnight rate that banks charge one another for loans now stands at an even 2 percent, with two more rate hikes expected to occur before year’s end. According to one economist, however, the nation’s central bank could abandon its pursuit of a tighter monetary policy if the capital markets experience a major disruption. Rajeev Dhawan, director of the economic forecasting center at Georgia State University in Atlanta, believes there is no more plausible and imminent economic disruptor than President Donald Trump’s trade policies. “The commercial real estate industry shouldn’t be worried about rate hikes, which are happening in baby steps,” says Dhawan. “If the cash flows on your properties are there, who cares about the rate hikes? The real thing to worry about is what happens in the interest rate market as a result of trade developments.” Rate Hikes Foreseen Most borrowers in commercial real estate anticipated an increase in short-term interest rates. After all, these figures had nowhere to go but up after hovering around zero for several years in the post-recession era. Borrowers generally responded by …

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