Features

NRF Survey: St. Patrick’s Day Spending to Hit Record $5.9B, Food and Beverage Most Popular Items

by Camren Skelton March 13, 2018

WASHINGTON, D.C. — More than 149 million U.S. adults are expected to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day on Saturday, spending a record $5.9 billion on items related to the holiday, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Proper Insights & Analytics. The annual survey, conduced Feb. 2 to 13, asked 7,657 consumers ages 18 and up about their St. Patrick’s Day plans. The 2018 figure is the highest level in the survey’s 14-year history, up from last year’s previous record of $5.3 billion. “The holiday falls on a Saturday this year, so Americans will have more time to splurge a little as they get together with friends and loved ones for a day of festivities,” says Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF, a Washington, D.C.-based retail trade association. According to the survey, consumers are expected to spend an average of $39.65 per person, up from last year’s total of $37.92. The holiday is most popular among individuals 18 to 24 years old, with 77 percent celebrating, but those 35 to 44 will be the biggest spenders at an average of $45.76 each. Celebrants plan to make the majority of their St. Paddy’s purchases from grocery stores (38 …

March 13, 2018

Multifamily Investors Look Beyond the Core, Says Capital One Survey

by John Nelson March 8, 2018

After years of historic increases, 2017 was the year that the central business districts (CBDs) of the nation’s major cities lost some of their luster. Multifamily rent growth slowed in cities like San Francisco and San Jose, Calif. Landlords in some submarkets, such as San Francisco’s South of Market (SoMa) district, actually lowered rents and offered concessions to new tenants during the early part of the year. These West Coast cities were not alone. Rents in New York, Chicago and Miami grew only slightly, while rents in Washington, D.C., actually contracted. Sluggish rental growth in markets like these is one reason for a significant change in the results of Capital One’s Multifamily Survey. When asked where they expected to see the greatest increase in value in 2018, 43 percent of multifamily respondents named secondary and tertiary markets, while another 35 percent selected suburban markets. Only 17 percent chose urban markets. This contrasts markedly with the results from the previous year’s survey. At that time, 47 percent of respondents selected urban markets, 27 percent chose suburban, and 19 percent named secondary and tertiary. Urban Markets on Pause There are a number of reasons why urban markets have fallen from grace. One …

March 8, 2018

Features

GSU’s Rajeev Dhawan: Decisive Year Ahead for Federal Reserve

by John Nelson March 6, 2018

ATLANTA — Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s (GSU) J. Mack Robinson College of Business, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate several times this year. “Three is a safe bet based on my projections for growth,” writes Dhawan in his quarterly Forecast of the Nation report released last week. The veteran economist expects Jay Powell, who succeeded Janet Yellen in January as the new Fed chair, to set forth the first hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 20-21. But that isn’t a given, according to Dhawan. Financial Markets ‘Skittish’ Since the beginning of the year, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 50 basis points and hit a four-year peak at 2.94 percent on Feb. 21. (The latest 10-year rate as of this writing was 2.81 percent.) The suddenness of the upswing, and the near “correction” (or 10 percent drop) in February of the Dow Jones industrial average may be signaling that it’s not a good time for the Fed to raise short-term rates. “This first one may get delayed if financial markets are in turmoil,” writes Dhawan. “The recent volatility in markets is …

March 6, 2018

Features Loans

PGIM: Liquid Market Means ‘It’s a Good Time to Be a Borrower’

by Kristin Harlow March 1, 2018

SAN DIEGO — In 2017, PGIM Real Estate Finance originated $14.8 billion in financing, led by production in multifamily and industrial lending. The company also announced that it has as much as $15 billion available for financing in 2018 and will target growth in international markets and agency business in the Western United States. REBusinessOnline spoke with Paige Hood, CIO and senior portfolio manager with PGIM Real Estate Finance, at the Mortgage Bankers Association CREF Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo. The conference took place at the Marriott Marquis San Diego Marina on Feb. 11-14. Based in Atlanta, Hood oversees the investment process for the company’s core and core-plus mortgage investment, as well as the general account and funds management portfolios, which were valued at $57.8 billion in assets under management at the end of 2017. What follows is an edited version of the conversation. REBusinessOnline: What impact do you think the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will have on commercial real estate lending, both from the borrower perspective and the lender perspective? Paige Hood: There are a lot of things to discuss as far as the tax bill, and a lot of them could be negative in relation to real estate. …

March 1, 2018

Features Loans Top Stories

2018: Year of Transition for CMBS Industry

by Kristin Harlow February 27, 2018

As a result of new Dodd-Frank risk retention regulations that went into effect in December 2016, last year was widely considered to be a pivotal period for the CMBS industry. Formulated to hold banks more accountable for their own investment decisions and place a greater emphasis on collateral quality, the regulatory provision imposed higher capital charges on sponsors by requiring them to retain a 5 percent interest in an asset-backed securitization. The mandate fueled concerns that CMBS would become less competitive compared with other commercial real estate lending sources, leading to speculation of a potential slowdown in interest among investors, a reduction in market liquidity and higher borrowing costs. In short, the rules require issuers to retain a portion of the credit risk in their own transactions. This is accomplished by setting aside additional capital that amounts to 5 percent of the value of newly issued bonds on their balance sheets. There are three different methods of fulfilling the retained risk requirement, which take shape in the form of one of three structural options: a horizontal slice equal to 5 percent of the lowest bonds in the deal waterfall, a vertical slice that amounts to 5 percent of each tranche …

February 27, 2018

Features Top Stories

Restrictive Bank Regulations Open Door for Alternative Lenders

by Jeff Shaw February 22, 2018

Upon the introduction in 2015 of new banking regulations related to holding extra reserves for short-term or riskier commercial real estate loans, banks reined in lending. While the pullback affected property investors across the board, developers felt it most. Typical loan-to-cost ratios for construction financing dropped 20 percentage points to 55 percent, interest rates ballooned by some 150 basis points to around 350 basis points over 30-day LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), and the number of banks that would consider development financing plunged, say mortgage bankers. In 2017, the number of banks willing to look at potential deals grew and interest rates dropped some, but leverage generally remained capped at 65 percent of costs. Consequently, borrowers more than ever are tapping non-bank lenders, particularly private debt funds. “The most notable change in 2017 was the growth in debt fund activity,” says Kathy Farrell, head of commercial real estate for Atlanta-based SunTrust Banks. “They certainly stepped in to fill the gap in construction and acquisition financing created by the pullback of the banks.” According to alternative asset research firm Preqin, 47 global real estate debt funds raised a record $28 billion in 2017, up from 32 funds that raised $19 billion …

February 22, 2018

Lancaster Pollard 2018 Seniors Housing and Care Survey

Features Multifamily Seniors Housing Top Stories

Lancaster Pollard Survey: 87 Percent of Seniors Housing Professionals Rate Industry as Highly Competitive

by Jeff Shaw February 20, 2018

COLUMBUS, OHIO — Increasing competition is becoming a larger and larger issue within seniors housing, as 87 percent of owners, operators developers and investors rate their local environment as either competitive or extremely competitive. That’s according to the 2018 Seniors Housing and Care Survey conducted by Lancaster Pollard. In December 2017, the Columbus-based real estate services firm sent an online survey to approximately 4,000 leaders at seniors housing and care facilities throughout the United States. Over the course of two weeks, 386 respondents completed the online survey. Out of the respondents, 62 percent were for-profit providers and 73 percent identified themselves as CEOs, CFOs or owners. The majority operated facilities with fewer than 250 units and all aspects of the continuum of care were represented. Generally, respondents reflected the belief that skilled nursing is going through trouble, with only 19 percent rating the outlook for the sector as “good” over the next three years. For comparison, 58 percent rated the assisted living outlook as “good,” and 55 percent said the same for continuing care retirement communities (CCRCs). Other major finds of the survey include that 82 percent of respondents cited a shortage of workers as a key concern over the …

February 20, 2018

Conference Coverage Features Retail Top Stories

Activation Is a Top Priority for Entertainment Destinations, say EEE Panelists

by Taylor Williams February 14, 2018

SANTA MONICA, CALIF. — E-commerce has claimed many victims in its siege of brick-and-mortar shopping, but perhaps none more so than big box retailers. As more of these spaces are vacated, demand for entertainment-based users to backfill them grows. Entertainment-themed tenants often require the same open-floor layouts and high ceiling heights that big box spaces offer. In addition, big boxes are typically found in malls and retail power centers, which have presumably been built in high-traffic and high-density locations. As such, entertainment tenants backfilling or building within a traditional retail development aren’t as reliant on “activation” of their sites to drum up business. But when you have a variety of entertainment tenants, including bars and restaurants, operating out of a single destination, it’s crucial to galvanize the property with events and programs. This was a trend discussed at the Entertainment Experience Evolution conference on Feb. 6-7 at Fairmont Miramar hotel in Santa Monica. A panel of professionals in the entertainment retail space discussed the role of activation in creating a “sense of place” at the conference, which more than 600 industry players attended. Moderator Nick Egelanian, president of SiteWorks Retail Real Estate Services, asked the other panelists to describe how …

February 14, 2018

Features Loans Top Stories

‘We Have Turned the Corner’ on Interest Rates Globally, Says MBA’s Chief Economist

by John Nelson February 13, 2018

SAN DIEGO — Michael Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), fully expects the U.S. national unemployment rate to fall well below 4 percent this year — possibly as low as 3.6 percent — leading to an acceleration in wage growth, inflationary pressures and, ultimately, higher interest rates. Nationally, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1 percent at the end of January. “This is an extraordinarily tight job market,” said the veteran economist, who pointed out that 17 states are approaching record low unemployment rates. His comments came Sunday afternoon during a special economic outlook session at MBA’s Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2018 at the San Diego Marriott Marquis & Marina. The four-day conference, which concludes tomorrow, has drawn more than 3,300 attendees. Fratantoni appeared on stage with Jamie Woodwell, the association’s vice president of commercial real estate research. Woodwell provided analysis on the state of the property markets and trends in commercial/multifamily mortgage loan originations. Wage pressures mount According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, average hourly earnings for workers on private nonfarm payrolls were 2.9 percent higher in January 2018 than in January 2017. “We’ll be between 3.5 percent and 4 percent for …

February 13, 2018

District of Columbia Features Loans Southeast Top Stories

‘A Record Year’: Commercial/Multifamily Loan Originations Increased 15 Percent in 2017, Says MBA

by John Nelson February 12, 2018

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Commercial and multifamily mortgage originations for all of 2017 increased 15 percent on a year-over-year basis, bolstered by the strength of the multifamily, industrial and office sectors, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The preliminary estimate was released Sunday during MBA’s Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo 2018 in San Diego. The estimate is based on the MBA’s Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations. The MBA reported that originations totaled $491 billion in 2016. Breaking down the numbers Originations for hotel properties increased 26 percent in 2017 over the prior year, the MBA reports, followed by industrial (+22 percent), multifamily (+17 percent), office (+12 percent) and healthcare (+9 percent). On the flip side, originations for the retail sector declined 21 percent in 2017 due in part to the dramatic growth of e-commerce. Even so, it was banner year overall for the mortgage banking community. “Based on these preliminary numbers, 2017 was a record year for borrowing and lending backed by commercial real estate properties,” said Jamie Woodwell, vice president of commercial real estate research for MBA, which is headquartered in Washington, D.C. “The increase was driven by multifamily lending, particularly for Fannie Mae …

February 12, 2018

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