DENVER — Global uncertainty and political polarization are the issues that will have the most significant impact on the real estate industry in 2017 and 2018, according to The Counselors of Real Estate (CRE). The findings come from the organization’s Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate, which it released Wednesday during a keynote address by Scott Muldavin, 2017 chair of CRE, at the annual conference of the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Denver. CRE is a professional association for real estate advisors. Muldavin is president of The Muldavin Company, a real estate advisory firm based in San Rafael, Calif. The list was created from dialogue between CRE’s members, all of which took place under the direction of two CRE members: Peter Burley, a research executive and author, and Victor Calanog, chief economist and senior vice president with Reis New York City. The other issues earning rounding out this years’ Top 10 list include technology, generational disruptions, retail disruptions, infrastructure investment, housing, “Lost Decades of the Middle Class,” real estate’s emerging role in healthcare, immigration and climate change. Below are brief summaries of each issue from the report. For more in-depth analysis, click here to read the full report. …
Features
From Production to Consumption: Architecture is Critical Component of the U.S. Microbrewery Scene
by John Nelson
For most brick-and-mortar retailers, visibility to remain top-of-mind is at the forefront of operational decisions. Not so for microbreweries. In fact, it’s not as much about where a brewery is located as it is about how it is designed. For this still fairly young industry, brewery architecture and design are nearly as important as the beer itself. Microbreweries are quickly taking the Southeast by storm as places to taste and enjoy a fine beverage, as well as spend an enjoyable afternoon or evening. With so many intricate design components within often-limited budgets, this kind of project can be a perfectly alluring (and appetizing) challenge for an architect. Critical to the success of creating the ideal atmosphere and experience for a microbrewery is partnering with an architectural and design firm that understands the business to ensure the building ultimately supports current and future operations and growth. And, with fermenters and grain rooms in the mix, the design is quite unique to other commercial and even industrial spaces. Microbrewery operators must have space for two (possibly three) components: production, event space and now retail sales, an emerging third element for states like Georgia with new alcohol sales laws. The production space must …
LAS VEGAS — With more than 30 years of experience representing tenants and landlords in retail negotiations, Jedd Nero, principal and executive managing director at Avison Young’s New York office, has worked with household-name retailers such as Hershey’s, Hugo Boss and Verizon Wireless. Nero was one of about 37,000 retail professionals who attended ICSC RECon in Las Vegas in late May. As the crowd jostled through the Las Vegas Convention Center in search of their next networking opportunity, Northeast Real Estate Business found time to chat with Nero. His insights into the rapidly changing landscape of retail real estate are detailed below. Northeast Real Estate Business: Since the beginning of the year, we’ve seen a rash of store closures nationally. In terms of the volume of these closures, what has precipitated that? Is it just online shopping or are there other factors at work? Jedd Nero: I think it’s a combination of several factors. I think we can all agree that the country is over-malled. There are about 1,200 malls in the country. By the time everything is said and done, there will probably be about 900 left. Class C and D malls have been affected the most. Certainly online …
Throughout his 32-year career, Fred Cordova has purchased, sold, financed, developed and leased more than 6.5 billion square feet of real estate. As the executive vice president of brokerage services at California-based Kennedy Wilson, Cordova currently specializes in the retail sector. Western Real Estate Business caught up with Cordova at ICSC RECon in late May to get his thoughts on how traditional brick-and-mortar retailers can survive the current rash of store closures. Western Real Estate Business: Can you clarify your role in the retail space? Fred Cordova: Our brokerage service really specializes in the retail space, particularly in urban retail. We excel at leasing urban retail centers and properties, including the ground floors — the huge new wave of development of multifamily in an urban environment that has spread across the country like wildfire. We’re the ones who lease the ground-floor space. We also do infill retail shopping centers, many of which need to be repurposed. On the capital side, we do a lot of sales of properties that are going to be repositioned — older properties that need to be taken down completely, or in some cases rehabbed. But in most cases those properties are razed to make room for …
HERNDON, VA. — A new forecast released by the NAIOP Research Foundation calls for approximately 39.7 million square feet of net absorption of office space in 2017. That is about 10 million square feet per quarter — similar to the 41.4 million square feet absorbed in 2016. Greater than expected hiring in the office-using sectors of the economy led to 14.8 million square feet of positive net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2016, well above the 7.8 million square feet that had been projected. The annualized growth rate in office-using jobs was 2.52 percent in the first quarter of 2017, compared with 1.58 percent growth in overall nonfarm payroll employment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If growth in office-using employment continues at such a pace, the need for office space will expand rapidly and thus cause actual absorption to come in near or above the 39.7 million square feet of total absorption projected for all of 2017. However, prior experience suggests that growth in the number of office-using jobs will likely decelerate as it moves closer to the overall employment growth average over the long term, according to NAIOP. The forecast is also driven, in part, by …
Are the below-average monthly job gains recorded in May due to a labor shortage, or is there weakness emerging in the employment market? That’s the crucial question in the wake of the latest job figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed employers added 138,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, well below the 12-month average of 181,000 positions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from 4.4 percent in April to 4.3 percent in May. “Most evidence points toward the former, and that should keep the Fed on track to lift rates two additional times in 2017, even if it waits until September,” says Steve Hovland, director of research for Irvine, California-based HomeUnion, an online real estate management firm that specializes in helping investors acquire and manage single-family home rentals. “Job openings remain near record-high levels, indicative of a skills gap rather than hesitant employers. Furthermore, the stock markets regularly flirt with record highs, job growth has been positive for the longest post-war stretch and home prices have soared,” adds Hovland. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will need to weigh whether the lowest unemployment rate in 16 years is sufficient to justify a rate hike despite …
LAS VEGAS — Amid a throng of more than 37,000 convention-goers at RECon — the world’s largest retail real estate trade show — Heartland Real Estate Business sat down with veteran Chicago broker Rick Scardino and CEO Jeff Rinkov of Lee & Associates on the show floor of the Las Vegas Convention Center in late May. Scardino, a principal with the Chicago office, spearheads the retail division at Lee & Associates of Illinois. Rinkov serves as CEO and chairman of the board. The two discussed the overall health of the retail market in the Windy City and beyond, the emergence of “grocerants” and the driving factors behind the recent rash of retail bankruptcies and store closures. What follows is an edited version of that conversation. Heartland Real Estate Business: Does the old saying that the grocery sector is recession-proof because everyone needs to eat still hold true? Rick Scardino: I just hate painting anything with a broad brush. I don’t think anything is recession-proof. I grew up with family retail and the restaurant business. Sometimes people move from one category to another, they’ll go from an Aldi when things are tighter to a Jewel. HREB: Who do you think is …
Investors View Anchored Centers as Best Source of Opportunity in Changing Retail Landscape, Real Capital Markets Reports
by Katie Sloan
An evolution is taking place in the retail sector today. Big box retailers are no longer in vogue with today’s active and experience-driven consumer, and the growth of e-commerce continues to spark a need for change throughout the retail landscape. Bankruptcies and store closures may be topping the headlines, but the sentiment in the sector remains cautiously optimistic, according to Real Capital Market’s May 2017 Retail Sentiment Report. For the May report, RCM surveyed its database of principals and brokers from across the country to gauge their sentiment on investing in today’s market, the greatest threats to the industry, the factors most influencing their acquisition decisions and where they see the greatest opportunities. Investors point towards anchored retail centers — particularly those with grocery tenants — as one of the greatest avenues for growth, with the category cited by more than 40 percent of investors. “Anchored centers, whether highlighted by a grocery store or another strong big box retailer, remain the category where the majority of investors see the greatest opportunity,” says Steve Shanahan, executive managing director of Real Capital Markets. “Though e-commerce is highly disruptive for so many businesses, grocery stores may be among the least vulnerable.” Shifting consumer buying habits were …
LAS VEGAS — The roof isn’t about to cave in on the retail industry despite a rash of store closures and bankruptcies. Far from it, insists Hessam Nadji, president and CEO of Marcus & Millichap. Core retail sales, which exclude auto and gasoline sales, have risen 28 percent from the peak of 2008 on a nominal basis and 12 percent when adjusted for inflation, according to combined data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau and Marcus & Millichap. Unlike the period leading up to the Great Recession, when unsustainable consumer spending was fed by temporary factors such as overleveraging and homeowners using positive equity in their homes as ATMs to fund unaffordable lifestyles, those behaviors have largely been squelched in this recovery, Nadji points out. “We have not overleveraged. We have not stretched the consumer,” Nadji told a crowd of several hundred retail real estate professionals gathered at the Renaissance Las Vegas Hotel last Monday, May 22, to hear his presentation followed by a panel discussion on the state of the industry moderated by Bill Rose, director of the national retail group at Marcus & Millichap. The hour-long program was part of RECon, the annual dealmaking …
Locally Inspired Design, Restaurant Offerings Enhance the Airport Retailing Experience
by Katie Sloan
Airports by and large are jumping on the “shop local” bandwagon, offering more and more locally based dining options. Airports that infuse the local character into their design and restaurant and retail offerings will likely entice travelers to stop and spend their dollars. Chicago Midway International Airport is set to undergo a major renovation of its concessions and food offerings. In February, the city council approved the ordinance authorizing a concession redevelopment and management lease agreement with Midway Partnership LLC to redevelop, manage and operate the airport’s concessions program. The partnership is comprised of Vantage Airport Group, SSP America and Hudson Group. Meanwhile at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, passengers can enjoy three different terminal locations of Tortas Frontera, a Mexican restaurant under the leadership of local chef Rick Bayless. Both Condé Nast Traveler and Bon Appétit have named the eatery America’s best airport restaurant. In March, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel proposed a plan that would allow food trucks, a staple for Chicago’s culinary scene, to set up on site at O’Hare and Midway airports. Current regulations regarding food truck locations would be modified under the proposal, according to local media reports. “The implementation of local venues is pretty much expected now. …