HERNDON, VA. — A new forecast released by the NAIOP Research Foundation calls for approximately 39.7 million square feet of net absorption of office space in 2017. That is about 10 million square feet per quarter — similar to the 41.4 million square feet absorbed in 2016. Greater than expected hiring in the office-using sectors of the economy led to 14.8 million square feet of positive net absorption in the fourth quarter of 2016, well above the 7.8 million square feet that had been projected. The annualized growth rate in office-using jobs was 2.52 percent in the first quarter of 2017, compared with 1.58 percent growth in overall nonfarm payroll employment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If growth in office-using employment continues at such a pace, the need for office space will expand rapidly and thus cause actual absorption to come in near or above the 39.7 million square feet of total absorption projected for all of 2017. However, prior experience suggests that growth in the number of office-using jobs will likely decelerate as it moves closer to the overall employment growth average over the long term, according to NAIOP. The forecast is also driven, in part, by …
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Are the below-average monthly job gains recorded in May due to a labor shortage, or is there weakness emerging in the employment market? That’s the crucial question in the wake of the latest job figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which showed employers added 138,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in May, well below the 12-month average of 181,000 positions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from 4.4 percent in April to 4.3 percent in May. “Most evidence points toward the former, and that should keep the Fed on track to lift rates two additional times in 2017, even if it waits until September,” says Steve Hovland, director of research for Irvine, California-based HomeUnion, an online real estate management firm that specializes in helping investors acquire and manage single-family home rentals. “Job openings remain near record-high levels, indicative of a skills gap rather than hesitant employers. Furthermore, the stock markets regularly flirt with record highs, job growth has been positive for the longest post-war stretch and home prices have soared,” adds Hovland. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will need to weigh whether the lowest unemployment rate in 16 years is sufficient to justify a rate hike despite …
LAS VEGAS — Amid a throng of more than 37,000 convention-goers at RECon — the world’s largest retail real estate trade show — Heartland Real Estate Business sat down with veteran Chicago broker Rick Scardino and CEO Jeff Rinkov of Lee & Associates on the show floor of the Las Vegas Convention Center in late May. Scardino, a principal with the Chicago office, spearheads the retail division at Lee & Associates of Illinois. Rinkov serves as CEO and chairman of the board. The two discussed the overall health of the retail market in the Windy City and beyond, the emergence of “grocerants” and the driving factors behind the recent rash of retail bankruptcies and store closures. What follows is an edited version of that conversation. Heartland Real Estate Business: Does the old saying that the grocery sector is recession-proof because everyone needs to eat still hold true? Rick Scardino: I just hate painting anything with a broad brush. I don’t think anything is recession-proof. I grew up with family retail and the restaurant business. Sometimes people move from one category to another, they’ll go from an Aldi when things are tighter to a Jewel. HREB: Who do you think is …
Investors View Anchored Centers as Best Source of Opportunity in Changing Retail Landscape, Real Capital Markets Reports
by Katie Sloan
An evolution is taking place in the retail sector today. Big box retailers are no longer in vogue with today’s active and experience-driven consumer, and the growth of e-commerce continues to spark a need for change throughout the retail landscape. Bankruptcies and store closures may be topping the headlines, but the sentiment in the sector remains cautiously optimistic, according to Real Capital Market’s May 2017 Retail Sentiment Report. For the May report, RCM surveyed its database of principals and brokers from across the country to gauge their sentiment on investing in today’s market, the greatest threats to the industry, the factors most influencing their acquisition decisions and where they see the greatest opportunities. Investors point towards anchored retail centers — particularly those with grocery tenants — as one of the greatest avenues for growth, with the category cited by more than 40 percent of investors. “Anchored centers, whether highlighted by a grocery store or another strong big box retailer, remain the category where the majority of investors see the greatest opportunity,” says Steve Shanahan, executive managing director of Real Capital Markets. “Though e-commerce is highly disruptive for so many businesses, grocery stores may be among the least vulnerable.” Shifting consumer buying habits were …
LAS VEGAS — The roof isn’t about to cave in on the retail industry despite a rash of store closures and bankruptcies. Far from it, insists Hessam Nadji, president and CEO of Marcus & Millichap. Core retail sales, which exclude auto and gasoline sales, have risen 28 percent from the peak of 2008 on a nominal basis and 12 percent when adjusted for inflation, according to combined data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau and Marcus & Millichap. Unlike the period leading up to the Great Recession, when unsustainable consumer spending was fed by temporary factors such as overleveraging and homeowners using positive equity in their homes as ATMs to fund unaffordable lifestyles, those behaviors have largely been squelched in this recovery, Nadji points out. “We have not overleveraged. We have not stretched the consumer,” Nadji told a crowd of several hundred retail real estate professionals gathered at the Renaissance Las Vegas Hotel last Monday, May 22, to hear his presentation followed by a panel discussion on the state of the industry moderated by Bill Rose, director of the national retail group at Marcus & Millichap. The hour-long program was part of RECon, the annual dealmaking …
Locally Inspired Design, Restaurant Offerings Enhance the Airport Retailing Experience
by Katie Sloan
Airports by and large are jumping on the “shop local” bandwagon, offering more and more locally based dining options. Airports that infuse the local character into their design and restaurant and retail offerings will likely entice travelers to stop and spend their dollars. Chicago Midway International Airport is set to undergo a major renovation of its concessions and food offerings. In February, the city council approved the ordinance authorizing a concession redevelopment and management lease agreement with Midway Partnership LLC to redevelop, manage and operate the airport’s concessions program. The partnership is comprised of Vantage Airport Group, SSP America and Hudson Group. Meanwhile at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, passengers can enjoy three different terminal locations of Tortas Frontera, a Mexican restaurant under the leadership of local chef Rick Bayless. Both Condé Nast Traveler and Bon Appétit have named the eatery America’s best airport restaurant. In March, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel proposed a plan that would allow food trucks, a staple for Chicago’s culinary scene, to set up on site at O’Hare and Midway airports. Current regulations regarding food truck locations would be modified under the proposal, according to local media reports. “The implementation of local venues is pretty much expected now. …
LAS VEGAS — In the midst of a particularly tumultuous period for the retail sector, evidenced by waves of store closures, what advice do seasoned shopping center executives have for aspiring young professionals seeking to make their mark in this business? The question arose Monday during a panel discussion moderated by Marcus & Millichap’s Bill Rose, national director of the brokerage firm’s retail group, at the Renaissance Las Vegas Hotel. The hour-long program, titled “Retail eVolution: A New Beginning, Not the End As We Know It,” analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of today’s retail market. The panel discussion capped off the first day of events at RECon 2017, the shopping center industry’s biggest deal-making event of the year. This year’s show, which is put on by the International Council of Shopping Centers, included 37,000 registrants, 1,200 exhibitors spread across 853,000 square feet and participants from 58 countries. The panelists pointed out that the current disruption taking place in the retail real estate sector — driven by a combination of shifting demographics, the growth of online retailing and a U.S. market that is over-retailed in some categories — creates both risk and opportunity. Hessam Nadji, president and CEO of Marcus & …
On a basic level, environmental graphic design (EGD) is about communicating information through visual media and tactical installations. But it’s not just about conveying information, it’s also about expressing ideas and identity. On a more engaging level, EGD is about making a space memorable and about connecting people to spaces through the thoughtful and strategic use of graphics, signage, art and artistry. EGD includes a wide array of applications and expressions. From practical and simple design to inspiring and uniquely thoughtful compositions, EGD professionals blend environmental graphics with both the built environment and interior design to reinforce identity and bring elements of an organization’s professional culture into the space. In other words, EGD isn’t just about where you are — but more importantly, who you are. For owners, managers, businesses and brokers, understanding the power and potential of high-quality EGD is critically important. It can greatly enhance the properties that people own, operate, lend on or broker — helping to sell a space and vision or sell a client on your brand, building or business. Influential Storytelling EGD attracts people to not only a polished, beautiful space, but can also visually demonstrate the potential of a space through a wide …
The days of renting in the city and buying in the suburbs may have come to an end. According to a recent study from national apartment locator service RentCafé, in 19 of America’s 20 largest metros, the suburbs are attracting more renters than urban neighborhoods. Between 2011 and 2015, several metros — New York, Los Angeles, Houston, Philadelphia — experienced greater overall population growth in urban neighborhoods than in suburban ones. However, only Philadelphia saw a greater year-over-year percentage increase in the growth of renter households inside the city limits as opposed to outside of them The difference in renter households that flocked to the suburbs over the city during that period was most pronounced in Riverside, Calif., which saw an additional 42,700 households move to the suburbs. Riverside was followed by Atlanta (37,200 households), Miami (29,800 households) and Chicago (20,600 households). Cheaper rent remains the primary incentive behind the trend. Of the 20 metros surveyed, only St. Louis posted a higher average rent in its suburban areas than its urban neighborhoods. The differences in average rent between the suburbs and the city were smallest in Dallas, Phoenix, Houston and Denver. The average amount of rent saved by moving to …
Over the past two years, quarterly earnings results that followed holiday shopping seasons have come with a side of fresh store closures as well as new bankruptcy filings by major retailers. In the first few weeks of 2017 alone, long-established chains such as RadioShack, JCPenney, Macy’s, CVS, and Gordmans announced plans to shutter hundreds of underperforming store locations from their portfolios, putting added pressure on numerous commercial real estate landlords and mall center operators. The trend reflects the ongoing effort of retailers to reduce costs and focus on new showrooming and omnichannel strategies that better cater to the purchasing tendencies of today’s consumers, a sizable portion of which includes millennials. The confluence of e-commerce, changing consumer shopping habits, and new technological enhancements has shifted the retail landscape away from traditional uses of large physical footprints and the one-dimensional approach to sales as discount, experiential, and specialty retailers continue to rise in popularity. Historical Performance The national delinquency rate (categorized as 30 or more days past due, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons) for loans securitized into private-label CMBS deals has been steadily increasing during the “wall of maturities” period, as the large wave of more than $300 billion in legacy …