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The e-commerce revolution has changed consumers’ shopping patterns and generated downstream repercussions that business leaders like Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett were out in front of early on. These e-commerce icons, of course, are early adopters of new technology who made fortunes by anticipating the opportunities associated with e-commerce. Back in 1996, Steve Jobs said, “The heart of the web will be commerce.” Warren Buffett sees online retailing as a massive growth opportunity, as evidenced by Berkshire’s recent acquisition of online retailer, Oriental Trading. Jeff Bezos, a founding father of e-commerce said this: “Your margin is my opportunity,” meaning his goals are to flood the marketplace with as many online purchases as possible (increasing package deliveries as a ripple effect). Is it working? In the United States, of all e-commerce growth in 2014 and 2015, Amazon accounted for 60 percent. The explosion of online purchases seems easily predictable in hindsight. This year, consumers and businesses will make more purchases online than in brick and mortar stores. However, many businesses and consumers are bumping into a bothersome bottleneck that occurs at the back end: package delivery and acceptance. Naturally enough, with their embrace of online purchasing, consumers have grown …

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ROSEMONT, ILL. – The goods distribution industry is in a state of controlled disruption, according to a mid-year update on North American ports and transportation published by Cushman & Wakefield’s ports/intermodal practice group. The report, titled Ship – Shore – To Your Front Door, outlines that sector’s ongoing transition and the resulting opportunities. Challenges and shifts, such as marine terminal closures, driver shortages, new ocean carrier alliances, Panama Canal issues and others have created an increasingly complex environment. Yet according to Cushman & Wakefield’s Kevin Turner, who leads the ports/intermodal practice group, across the supply chain there is light at the end of the tunnel. “Times are changing,” said Turner. “Stakeholders are charting a new way forward with automation, supply chain transparency, new port labor contracts, technological advances, congressional support and stabilizing fuel costs. Occupiers and landlords are positioning with logistics partners to increase delivery metrics, alleviating supply chain bottlenecks with scalable real estate solutions.” Inland Ports Inland ports are steaming ahead across the country. These logistics hubs combine containerized rail intermodal and trucking interchange with warehousing and distribution activity, offering virtually everything found at a seaport except for ships and salt water. The intermodal rail ramps — facilities to …

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Around Atlanta and the rest of the country, there are few retail developments in the pipeline that aren’t attached to office or residential uses. During CREW Atlanta’s panel discussion titled “The Evolution of Retail,” experts agreed that retailers are embracing mixed-use projects out of necessity. “I’m not sure if in the near-term there will be any more retail-only projects. Retail alone can’t sustain a single development, it needs other users,” said Tisha Maley, founder and principal of The Maley Co., a retail real estate advisory company that spearheads the leasing efforts for Ponce City Market in Atlanta’s Old Fourth Ward district. The 2 million-square-foot adaptive reuse project is the gold standard of how retailers are integrating into larger multi-use developments to great effect. “Ponce City Market as an anchor of the BeltLine has changed Old Fourth Ward forever. What retailers are attracted to is that shoppers show up to Ponce City Market for one reason or another multiple times a week,” said Maley, referring to the office component of the development, as well as The Suzuki School and Core Power Yoga. “It’s about creating a place where retailers and restaurants can feel that they can do business.” In addition to …

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U.S. Payroll Change, July 2016

For the second month in a row, U.S. nonfarm payroll employment experienced a big increase, according to the latest figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In June, employers added 287,000 net new payroll jobs, beating economist forecasts by more than 50 percent. The job gains in July generated more positive headlines, as employers added 255,000 new payroll jobs, once again blowing away economist forecasts that predicted 180,000. These numbers are especially welcome after a disappointing May, where job growth of 24,000 fell well short of predictions. REBusinessOnline asked two economists — Robert Bach, director of research for Newmark Grubb Knight Frank, and Ryan Severino, senior economist and director of research for Reis — what this news means for the commercial real estate industry as a whole. REBusinessOnline: The employment data has looked fairly healthy in the last few months. Yet, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter (subject to revision), which isn’t terrific. What are we to make of these seemingly mixed signals about the health of the economy? Ryan Severino: GDP has never been the best measure of the health of the economy. That’s not really what it was intended to do, though …

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The 807,137-square-foot CNA Center in Chicago.

Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations during the first quarter of this year were flat overall compared with the same period in 2015, reports the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA’s Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations also shows that the first quarter saw a 44 percent year-over year increase in the dollar volume of loans for retail properties and an 18 percent increase for office properties. Meanwhile, the dollar volume of loans for the hotel and multifamily sectors — two of the hottest property types among investors in recent years — rose only 3 percent and 2 percent respectively during the first quarter. On the flip side, the dollar volume of loans for healthcare and industrial properties during the first quarter plunged 57 percent and 56 percent, respectively. “In the aggregate, commercial real estate borrowing and lending started 2016 in a similarly strong fashion to 2015,” says Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president of commercial real estate research. “Borrowing backed by retail, office, hotel and multifamily properties picked up, as did lending by banks. Disruptions in the broader capital markets pushed originations for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) down. Across property types and investor types, changes in regulation and broader market conditions …

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Amazon-800x533

The U.S. industrial vacancy rate dropped 20 basis points (bps) to 8.8 percent during the second quarter of 2016, largely driven by companies building or leasing warehouse space to meet continued demand for e-commerce shopping, according to CBRE. The decline marked the 25th consecutive quarterly drop in available U.S. industrial space. “Plummeting U.S. industrial vacancy rates signify that this sector of the commercial real-estate market is benefitting from increasing acceptance of the e-commerce model,” says Chris Roach, president of BBG Valuation, an independent national commercial real estate valuation and assessment firm headquartered in Dallas. “We anticipate this downward trend in vacancy rates will continue for at least the remainder of this year.” According to CBRE’s second-quarter U.S. industrial and logistics report, the national industrial market expanded for a 25th consecutive quarter, logging 66.2 million square feet of positive net absorption. This was up 8 percent over the previous quarter. At the same time, a total of 41.6 million square feet of new supply was added nationally, which failed to keep up with demand. The growing trend in e-commerce shopping is expected to continue to fuel demand for warehouse space, which is needed to store inventory for shipping directly to consumers …

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peter-muoio-ten-x

IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. — Commercial real estate valuations increased by 1.1 percent in July, marking the strongest monthly increase this year and a 5.2 gain over last year, according to the latest Ten-X Nowcast. Ten-X, an online real estate transaction marketplace, uses Google Trends data, its own proprietary transaction data and investor surveys to forecast commercial real estate pricing trends. “The recent string of monthly increases confirms that overall pricing of commercial real estate remains on the upswing following the weakness seen earlier this year,” says Ten-X chief economist Peter Muoio. “That said, we are noticing distinct differences across the five major property sectors, with each telling its own story.” The office, apartment and retail sectors all saw monthly increases in July. The office sector posted the strongest gain for the second consecutive month, rising 4.8 percent from June and 7.6 percent above its level from one year ago. This was the best year-over-year gain for any of the commercial sectors since January. The multifamily sector, which has posted steady gains this year, increased 1.1 percent in July from the previous month and is 6.8 percent above last year’s level. “The apartment sector is unencumbered by technology-driven shifts …

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Several years after a punishing recessionary cycle, Michigan’s retail marketplace finds itself at somewhat of a crossroads. Steady and sustained economic growth and a robust retail recovery have things moving in the right direction. With few new large shopping centers opening in the last five to six years, these positive trends have led to the absorption of a great deal of available space. Consequently, demand for quality space has been picking up and retail rents have recently begun rising quite rapidly. At the same time, the relative lack of new construction presents its own challenges. It has prompted more tenants to commit to long-term renewals. In addition, with quality space in prime locations at a premium, more developers and retailers are electing to enhance or expand their existing stores. Fundamentally, the state’s evolving retail marketplace looks quite different than it did in the mid to late 2000s. The 2009 economic crash delivered a real blow to the lifestyle centers that were a big part of the pre-recession expansion, and those developments have had to scramble to adapt. Many have had to convert from a traditional lifestyle center model to more of a hybrid concept, integrating more middle-market and service-oriented tenants. …

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Gathering spaces and food are changing the format of the physical shopping environment, say retail architects and designers who are being tasked with creating new designs for older shopping centers and new retail-oriented projects. “Retail projects are requiring a different approach as far as what they mean to the customer anymore,” says Sy Perkowitz, principal with KTGY in Irvine, Calif. “What we want is something that is an attraction; something that brings you out to the retail center as opposed to Internet shopping or other activities that you may be involved in,” explains Perkowitz, “The need to be physically present at a retail project has changed. It used to be out of necessity, and today it’s more about wanting to be there because you’re interested in communicating with other people face-to-face.” As a result, retail developers are incorporating more places for people to socialize in shopping centers, whether that is restaurants, outdoor dining areas or public gathering spaces at shopping centers, something that used to be taboo in retail design. In former times, gathering spaces were thought to disengage shoppers from spending time in stores. Today, the opposite is true: the longer visitors spend at the center, and the more …

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U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics June Jobs Report

What a difference a month makes when it comes to U.S. job growth and the near-term economic outlook. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a disappointing nonfarm payroll employment report for May, showing a net gain of only 38,000 jobs — a figure that was later revised downward to 11,000 — June rebounded in a big way. Employers added 287,000 net new payroll jobs in June, blowing past the 180,000 jobs forecasted by Bloomberg based on its survey of economists. In a research note titled “Employment Whiplash,” Robert Bach, director of research for the Americas at real estate services firm Newmark Grubb Knight Frank, wrote that both the May and June job growth data are “outliers” in his view. Noise in the Numbers Bach pointed out that a strike by Verizon workers subtracted about 35,000 jobs from the information sector in May, but when that crisis passed those jobs were subsequently added to the BLS report for June. Bach believes those events exaggerated the volatility over the past two months. “The three-month average of 147,000 is a better indication of the underlying strength of the labor market. Although growth declined in the first half of 2016, it remains …

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