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No one can predict the future, but you can prepare for it. That’s always good advice for investors seeking to refinance their multifamily properties, but it’s particularly apt now. There’s both change and volatility in the air, making planning imperative. Volatile Interest Rates Interest rates have remained at historic lows much longer than most analysts predicted five years ago. Upward pressure has been restrained by a combination of factors that include a slower-than-expected recovery, the strong U.S. dollar and a fight to quality by global investors. However, in December the Fed raised rates for the first time in a decade, albeit modestly. Market observers expect additional increases this year. Meanwhile, investors remain concerned about interest-rate volatility. Last February, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.68 percent. In June, it rose to 2.50 percent. October saw a dip to 1.99 percent, followed by a November high of 2.34. In the last 12 months, it has not been unusual to see rates jump 20 to 30 basis points in the course of a week. For an investor, the significance of that rise can be measured in the difference between securing a $10 million loan and settling one that’s just …

Retail outlets, for many, call to mind memories of piling into a car and driving into rural parts of the state for a day filled with bargain hunting. While these traditional centers still exist, a shift is taking place in the outlet landscape. New development is moving toward the rooftops, and bringing with it the elements of a successful lifestyle center. “Most of the outlets used to be in rural areas where you would have to go on a journey to get your discounts,” says Quito Anderson, CEO of Ben Carter Enterprises. “Those days are gone.” Enhanced food offerings, placemaking and the addition of entertainment are just a few of the elements making their way into the modern outlet center. “In the past, entertainment at outlet centers had been exceedingly limited,” says Karen Fluharty, partner at Strategy+Style Marketing Group. “The entertainment used to be almost exclusively found in the discounts. Today, there is a convergence between entertaining the customer while they’re shopping and allowing them to both be entertained by and enjoy the synergies of the surrounding environment,” says Fluharty. From kids clubs, to fireworks exhibits, movie theaters and restaurants, today’s outlet center is not just a place to bargain …

COLUMBUS, Ohio — A clear majority of seniors housing executives plan to start new construction projects in 2016, although they are slightly less ambitious than they were a year ago, according to an online survey of 295 executives by Columbus-based lender Lancaster Pollard. Respondents to the survey included owners, operators, developers and investors. The survey found that 70 percent of respondents are either “somewhat likely” or “extremely likely” to start a new seniors housing project this year. This is a drop-off from last year, when 80 percent indicated they expected to undertake new construction. “Overall, our survey findings depict an environment similar to [last year],” the report states. ”New construction and renovation projects are increasingly being pursued, particularly in regard to assisted living and memory care.” The majority of respondents — 61 percent — believe that memory care will be the fastest growing subsector of seniors housing this year. Skilled nursing facilities and continuing care retirement communities are least likely to lead the way in growth, according to the findings. Survey respondents also suggest that the current seller’s market is starting to take a toll on owners’ approach to mergers and acquisitions. Some 65 percent indicate they are extremely or somewhat …

NEW YORK CITY — New construction starts increased 8 percent across the U.S. commercial real estate industry in 2015 with the multifamily sector leading the way, according to a report by New York-based data firm Dodge Data & Analytics. The national total was $162.7 billion in new starts for the office, retail, hotel, warehouse, garage and multifamily sectors, up from $150.3 billion in 2014. Most property sectors “held steady,” according to the report, while multifamily’s 18 percent spike caused the bulk of the increase. By location, the New York City metropolitan statistical area (MSA) led the way with a striking 66 percent increase in construction starts over 2014, representing $34.9 billion in new construction starts in 2015. Other MSAs in the top five for total volume were Miami ($6.3 billion), down 8 percent; Dallas-Ft. Worth ($6 billion), up 35 percent; Chicago ($5.9 billion), up 14 percent; and Washington D.C. ($5.9 billion), down 4 percent. The largest percentage increase after New York was Kansas City, which jumped to 18th place thanks to a 56 percent spike in new starts to $1.8 billion. Among the top 20 metros by construction starts, Philadelphia saw the greatest drop in production — a 57 percent …

ORLANDO, FLA. — The U.S. economy and the stock market are sending opposite messages to the commercial real estate community, causing many industry professionals to scratch their heads. On the one hand, the leading economic indicators are solid. Monthly gains in nonfarm payroll employment averaged 280,000 during the fourth quarter of 2015, and the national unemployment rate ended the year at 5 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 2.5 percent in 2015, a sign that wage growth is accelerating. The Federal Reserve’s decision in December to raise short-term rates by a quarter percentage point — the first such move in nearly 10 years — was an acknowledgment that the recovery has legs. Real gross domestic product grew a modest 2.4 percent in 2015. But the Dow has fallen about 2,000 points in the last couple of weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped approximately 40 basis points during the same period. Meanwhile, several of Europe’s central banks have cut key interest rates below zero. The Bank of Japan did the same in late January to stimulate its economy. Add to the mix the concerns about China’s economic growth and conflict in the Middle East, and it’s easy to see why …

The demand for medical office space will likely remain strong in 2016 and beyond due to an increase in healthcare spending and an aging population, according to a new research report from Colliers International. “We expect healthcare costs will continue to rise as the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has enrolled millions of Americans who are actively using the coverage they are now paying for,” writes Michael Roessle, Colliers’ U.S. director of office research, in a white paper on the state of the healthcare real estate market. The number of newly insured totals 17 million people, according to the RAND Corp., a research organization based in Santa Monica, Calif. “This, combined with the projections in growth of the population 65 years and older, leads to the estimate of a near doubling of healthcare spending — from $3 trillion in 2014 to $5.5 trillion in 2024,” adds Roessle. Healthcare expenditures currently account for approximately 17.4 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. That figure is projected to reach 18.5 percent by 2020 (see line graph). The retail sector is expected to benefit as medical clinics, urgent care centers and other outpatient facilities lease space in shopping centers where more traditional retail tenants have …

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. — The U.S. hotel construction pipeline ended 2015 at its highest year-end total since 2008, with 4,413 projects and 546,135 rooms in the pipeline, according to Lodging Econometrics (LE). Still, this total was below the 2007 cyclical high of 5,438 projects and 718,387 rooms. The Portsmouth-based hotel research and consulting firm defines the construction pipeline as a combination of projects currently under construction, projects expected to begin construction within the next 12 months or those that are in the early planning stages. “On average, it takes about two years for a typical project to open as a new hotel after it has been announced into the construction pipeline,” says Patrick Ford, president of Lodging Econometrics. “The recent pipeline acceleration will not be fully felt for at least another two years.” According to LE, there were 1,312 projects under construction at the end of 2015, up 226 projects or 21 percent on a year-over-year basis. The total number of projects scheduled to begin construction in the next 12 months increased by 575 to 1,926, up 43 percent year over year. Projects in the early planning stages totaled 1,175, a decrease of 33 projects, or 3 percent, year over year. LE forecasts …

Following three straight months of improvement, the delinquency rate for loans in U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) ended 2015 modestly higher, according to data analytics firm Trepp LLC. The CMBS delinquency rate for loans 30 days or more past due increased four basis points to 5.17 percent in December. Still, the delinquency rate was 58 basis points lower than the 2014 year-end level of 5.75 percent. The percentage of loans seriously delinquent (60 or more days past due, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons) in December was 5 percent, two basis points lower than the prior month. More than $1.6 billion in loans became newly delinquent in December, which put 32 basis points of upward pressure on the delinquency rate. About $450 million in loans were cured last month, which helped push delinquencies lower by nine basis points. CMBS loans that were previously delinquent but paid off with a loss or at par totaled almost $1.1 billion in December. Lodging Sector Shines Hotel CMBS loans posted a 2.82 percent delinquency rate in December, up seven basis points from the prior month but still the lowest delinquency rate among all major property types (see table). Year-over-year, the delinquency rate for the …