WASHINGTON, D.C. — Delinquency rates for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans continued to decline in the second quarter of 2015, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report. “As commercial property incomes and values continue to climb, and financing remains plentiful, loan performance continues to improve as well,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president of commercial real estate research. “Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency rates were down broadly in the second quarter, with highlights including the lowest 90-plus-day delinquency rate on bank-held multifamily loans since the series began in 1993, and 60-plus-day delinquency rates below 0.06 percent for loans held by life companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.” The MBA analysis looks at commercial/multifamily delinquency rates for five of the largest investor-groups: commercial banks and thrifts, commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), life insurance companies, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Together these groups hold more than 80 percent of outstanding commercial/multifamily mortgage debt. Delinquency rates for each group at the end of the second quarter based on the unpaid principal balance of loans were: Banks and thrifts (90 or more days delinquent or in non-accrual): 0.9 percent, a decrease of 13 basis points from the first quarter of 2015 Life company portfolios (60 …
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Despite recent volatility in the international stock markets, commercial real estate performance remains high, according to a recent report by Marcus & Millichap. The recent devaluation of China’s currency, coupled with the collapse of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, struck U.S. equity markets, driving down the S&P 500 by nearly 10 percent in one week and pushing the S&P’s Volatility Index to its highest level since 2011. Commercial real estate, however, the report says, continues to outperform due to increased investment, a tightening unemployment rate and generational trends. According to Marcus & Millichap’s special report, the U.S. economy has added nearly 1.5 million jobs through June of this year, and falling gas prices and rising wage pressure will continue to increase discretionary income. Additionally, rising consumption and emergence of Internet retail will boost industrial demand for storage and supply-chain management in major hubs and local markets. Vacancy rate nationwide for industrial properties has reached its tightest level since 2000, according to the report, contracting to 6.9 percent on steady quarterly absorption in excess of 50 million square feet. Office vacancy, too, edged lower to 15.3 percent in the second quarter, as the sector benefited from still-limited construction. The retail vacancy …
Cap Rates Compress for Single-Tenant, Net Lease Dollar Stores, Says The Boulder Group
by Katie Sloan
Capitalization rates within the single-tenant, net lease dollar store sector — which includes Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar — compressed 50 basis points nationally from the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015, according to the “Net Lease Dollar Store Report” produced by The Boulder Group. Median asking cap rates at Dollar General stores nationally compressed 25 basis points, falling from 6.75 percent to 6.5 percent, during the 12-month period; Dollar Tree saw median asking cap rates decrease 10 basis points, from 7 percent to 6.9 percent; and median asking cap rates at Family Dollar stores fell 100 basis points, from 7.5 percent to 6.5 percent. The significant decrease in cap rates for Family Dollar can be attributed to its recent lease structure change, according to The Boulder Group. Previously, leases for newly constructed Family Dollar stores were structured as a double net lease for a period of 10 years and did not contain rental escalations in the primary term. The new standard lease for newly constructed Family Dollar properties is a triple net lease for a period of 15 years and contains rental escalations every three years, or in the eleventh lease year of the primary …
ATLANTA — Gwinnett County in metro Atlanta is flush with opportunity for commercial real estate investors and developers. The county boasts the most diversified demographic makeup in the entire Southeast and is one of the 20 most populous counties in the United States, with 890,000 residents. The county has grown by 250,000 in the past 10 years. Within the county is Gwinnett Place, a district situated off Pleasant Hill and I-85 that supports 2.5 million square feet of Class A office space, 15.7 million square feet of industrial space and 7.7 million square feet of retail space. Anchored by the once-bustling Gwinnett Place Mall, the district’s retail market has a 93 percent occupancy rate. The mall was recently taken out of receivership and the new owner — Moonbeam Capital — is positioning the mall for a major turnaround. The office market’s occupancy rate currently hovers at 81 percent, but the county is home to two companies in the Fortune 500 — AGCO Corp. and Asbury Automotive — as well as regional mainstays like Waffle House. NCR Corp. is still headquartered in Duluth, but the tech firm, also in the Fortune 500, announced its plans in January to move its headquarters …
Healthcare Real Estate Transaction Volume Reaches New Heights, Says Investment Banking Firm
by Katie Sloan
Investor demand and sales transaction volume for healthcare real estate have reached historic heights, according to an analysis of deal velocity in the first half of 2015 conducted by Brown Gibbons Lang & Co., a Cleveland-based investment banking and advisory firm. The details are contained in the firm’s “Healthcare & Life Sciences Insider” report.
The U.S. consumer has “underspent” in the current economic expansion, according to a new research report released by Cushman & Wakefield. However, consumer confidence continues to trend upward, pointing to faster growth in household spending and solid demand for retail, industrial, and hospitality real estate. In the 72 months since June 2009, when the economic expansion officially began, inflation-adjusted consumer spending has increased 14 percent, or 2.2 percent per year. In the four previous economic expansions (beginning in 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2001), consumer spending increased an average of 3.5 percent per year over the same 72-month period. The consumer is a critical aspect of U.S. economic growth, accounting for approximately 68 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). According to Cushman & Wakefield, if growth in consumer spending in the current cycle matched the average of the preceding four expansions, U.S. GDP growth during the expansion would have averaged a respectable 3 percent per year instead of the weaker 2.1 percent per-year growth the economy has actually recorded. Among the report’s findings: Consumer spending has accelerated over the past 18 months after three years of tepid growth. An important driver has been an improvement in confidence. The overall level …
ATLANTA — In his “Forecast of Georgia and Atlanta” on Thursday, Aug. 27, Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s J. Mack Robinson College of Business, displayed confidence in Georgia’s overall economy going forward. Rajeev reported the sharp deceleration seen in Georgia’s employment growth from 3.9 percent in the second half of 2014 to 1.7 percent in the first half of 2015 will reverse in the second half of the year. “As global economic health stabilizes, consumers demonstrate a greater propensity to spend and corporate spending resumes, the Peach State’s job growth will accelerate to 2.6 percent for the 2015 calendar year,” says Dhawan. Small business hiring, national demand for carpet and auto parts manufactured in Dalton and Gainesville, and economic activity at the Port of Savannah will add to the growth. The Georgia Ports Authority announced it moved a record number of shipping containers in the most recent fiscal year. The Port of Savannah experienced a 17 percent increase in 20-foot equivalent container units, and the authority as a whole experienced a 7.8 percent increase in total tonnage. Construction is expected to begin this year on an inland port in Murray County that will …
A new research report written by Matthew Vance, an economist with CBRE, indicates the trend toward developing luxury apartment buildings is not new, but has become more widespread in recent years. “It is drawing greater attention as a rising trend in most major markets,” writes Vance. “The continued delivery of high-end rental housing — along with a lack of new moderately priced apartments — is likely contributing to strong overall rent growth that is leaving the budgets of many middle-class renters tighter than ever.” Vance sifted through data and met with experts in the multifamily sector to uncover the following trends: The luxury development trend began in Texas in the mid-2000s and has since spread to most major markets around the country. An analysis of several markets, such as Austin, Los Angeles, Tampa, Raleigh, Boston and Washington D.C. — shows that rent premiums for new apartment buildings vary in their behavior across markets and over time. In many other markets, new construction premiums have increased as the trend toward luxury has accelerated. The trends create opportunities for investors to target timely equity allocations based on factors such as property characteristics and hold periods. According to Vance, developers discovered an opportunity in the …
NEW YORK — Some $91.4 billion in CMBS loans have been prepaid, paid on time, paid late or disposed with a loss over the past year, according to a new national market snapshot prepared by research firm Trepp. Trepp’s research encompasses U.S. conduit, large loan and single asset/borrower CMBS deals. Nearly 55 percent of these loans fell into the prepay category as borrowers looked to lock in low interest rates and take advantage of property values, Trepp says. Another 25 percent paid their loans on time and 8 percent paid after maturity, often just a few months after the note came due. Nearly 12 percent, or $11.3 billion, Trepp says, in CMBS loans took losses at an average loss rate of 41 percent. Trepp’s study found that retail loans exhibited the highest loss severity, at 53 percent, and the second highest volume of loans disposed with losses. Office loans were first in volume, with $4.4 billion taking losses at an average severity of 38 percent. Compared to Trepp’s study from a year ago, the proportion of total CMBS dispositions taking losses has fallen 10 percentage points, down from 22 percent in the year ending in March 2014. Prepays and on-time …
IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, CALIF. — Four of the top five office markets for investments are located on the West Coast, according to a new report by Auction.com. The top markets for buying offices, from first to fifth, are located in San Jose, Calif.; San Francisco; Seattle; Orange County, Calif.; and New York. The top office acquisition markets as determined by Auction.com are based on projected net operating income growth, vacancy improvement, rent growth and valuations. Much of the strength of West Coast office growth is abetted by the recent tech surge, the report says, which is also a key factor for growth in New York and Boston. In San Jose, payrolls stand at an all-time high due to 15.3 percent year-over-year growth. REIS data shows that more than 450,000 square feet were added in the first quarter of 2015, but robust demand has absorbed it. According to Auction.com’s 2015-2018 U.S. Office Projections, San Jose will see a 22 percent increase in rents in the next three years, as well as a decreased vacancy of 440 basis points (bps). Rent growth from July 2014 to July 2015 in San Jose was 7.2 percent, and as supply evens out, Auction.com expects …