The U.S. office sector, already on an upward trend for several years, saw even more gains in absorption during the fourth quarter of 2014, according to a report from DTZ, a global commercial real estate service provider. The country saw a net absorption of 22.4 million square feet of office space, a 48 percent increase from the same time a year prior. Meanwhile vacancy fell 30 basis points to 14.5 percent since last quarter. New construction skyrocketed, with 103.8 million square feet under construction — a 74 percent increase over the same time last year. New York City leads the way, with a net absorption of 9.3 million square feet for 2014, more than 3.5 million of that in the fourth quarter alone. It was the metropolis’ third consecutive year of multi-million-square-foot growth. Houston and San Jose saw the next biggest numbers for 2014, with 6.6 million square feet and 4.4 million square feet, respectively. The report suggests that the positive trends will continue into 2015 as a strong economy and low gas prices stoke the fire. Although the report notes that there are some weak economies globally that could have a slowing effect on the U.S., the country has …
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What five office markets nationally are the next hidden gems? The answer is Nashville; East Bay, Calif.; Raleigh-Durham; Denver; and Salt Lake City, according to a newly released report from global brokerage services giant JLL titled “Office Perspective: The NERDS.” Those five markets stand out as having rents and vacancy levels below the national average, absorption rates above the national average, and employment and demographic movement growing or forecast to grow at 1.5 to two times the national rate. Affordable homes, affordable office space, and a high quality of life are drawing more people, more specifically Millennials, to these markets. Since 2010, these markets have grown by 5.1 percent. That’s nearly double the national average. In addition, a recent survey conducted by the Demand Institute, a non-profit organization, reported that 48 percent of Millennials prefer the suburbs for their next home. The survey was based on 1,000 respondents. Another major draw to moving to these markets is the relatively low cost of living compared to some of the big cities. For example, the cost of living in these five markets is on average 36 percent less than San Francisco, 41 percent less than Brooklyn and 16 percent less than Austin, …
CHICAGO — The industrial sector is heating up and it has grocers, e-commerce companies and retailers to thank, according to a new JLL report. The global brokerage services giant anticipates a year of rising rents and growing demand for big-box distribution centers from retailers and grocers. Sixty tenants are currently seeking big-box warehouses of 1 million square feet or more nationwide, says JLL, with demand outweighing immediate, available sites by nearly three to one. “Every retailer is asking, ‘How close can I put my distribution center to the customer?’” says Craig Meyer, president of JLL’s Industrial Brokerage group. “Proximity is the key to profitability in this era of same- and next-day delivery. To out-deliver the competition, we are seeing rapid growth from retailers on the East Coast, in major cities across the country, and even in secondary logistics corridors.” Rising Rents Competition for space near East Coast seaports — New York/New Jersey, Savannah and Charleston — is strong and will continue to drive rent increases in 2015. JLL predicts this trend will continue as supply chain executives seek to avoid delivery interruptions from congested West Coast seaports and truck driver shortages. For example, warehouses at the Port of Savannah saw …
Owners of big box retail buildings can take lessons from Michigan on the proper way to value these large, free-standing stores for property tax purposes. The state’s well-developed tax law offers a clear model that is applicable in any state that bases its property tax valuation assessments on the fee simple, value-in-exchange standard. Many states, including Michigan, base real estate taxation on the market value of a property’s fee simple interest using value-in-exchange principles. In other words, a property’s taxable value is its market value, and market value is commonly considered the property’s probable selling price in a cash-equivalent, arms-length transaction involving willing, knowledgeable parties, neither of whom is under duress. In recent years, the Michigan Tax Tribunal has decided with remarkable consistency a dozen cases involving big box stores. In 2014, the Michigan Court of Appeals affirmed two of these Tax Tribunal decisions, recognizing that the Tribunal’s key rulings in this area rested on established law. Probably the most important concept affirmed in these Michigan decisions is that assessors must value big box properties based on their value-in-exchange and not their value- in-use. Assessors and appraisers hired by local Michigan governments repeatedly – and improperly – reached value conclusions …
Lenders Will Be ‘More Aggressive’ in 2015, Commercial Real Estate Finance Council Survey Shows
by John Nelson
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Leading commercial real estate lenders see a strong year ahead with ample credit and capital available to meet borrower demand, according to a newly released survey of Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) members. Survey participants expect loan volume in 2015 to top 2014 levels as loan maturities rise and property fundamentals improve. The CRE Finance Council 2015 Market Outlook Survey was released on Monday, Jan. 5, in advance of CREFC’s Annual January Conference, which is Jan. 7-9. More than 1,600 industry participants are slated to attend the event at the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach. Survey respondents expect the U.S. commercial real estate finance market in 2015 to be quite healthy, buoyed by strong investor demand, rising loan maturities, relatively low levels of new construction and improving property fundamentals. While 74 percent of survey respondents expect benchmark interest rates to rise in 2015, in contrast to last year market participants are not as worried about interest rate increases as they are confident in the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage any increases in a thoughtful manner. Overall commercial real estate market liquidity is expected to stay the same or expand in 2015. Some 47 percent of respondents …
Architecture Billings Index’s Seven Consecutive Positive Months Suggests More Construction Around the Corner
by John Nelson
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Making it seven consecutive months of positive momentum, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) posted a score of 50.9, down from 53.7 in October. The score reflects an increase in design activity, with any score above 50 indicating an increase in billings. A barometer of future non-residential construction activity, the ABI reflects the roughly nine- to 12-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The index is produced by The American Institute of Architects (AIA) Economics & Market Research Group. The score is tabulated based on a monthly survey sent to a panel of AIA member-owned architecture firms. “Demand for design services has slowed somewhat from the torrid pace of the summer, but all project sectors are seeing at least modest growth,” says Kermit Baker, AIA’s chief economist. “Architecture firms are expecting solid mid-single digit gains in revenue for 2014, but heading into 2015, they are concerned with finding quality contractors for projects, coping with volatile construction materials costs and with finding qualified architecture staff for their firms.” The South region posted the highest three-month average ABI score (57.9) nationally, followed by the West (52.7), Midwest (49.8) and Northeast (46.7). Among property types, multifamily posted the highest …
LOS ANGELES — A recent CBRE report found that online sales during the course of the Thanksgiving weekend grew 17 percent over 2013, with an average order size of $124. Similarly, on Cyber Monday, sales grew 8.5 percent year-over-year. (Cyber Monday fell on Dec. 1 this year.) “Cyber Monday is no longer a one-day event,” says Spencer Levy, head of research for CBRE Americas. “Consumers are now spreading their holiday shopping over ‘Cyber Week’, taking advantage of online sales that began before Black Friday. Continued strength in online shopping is a trend which bodes well for the U.S. industrial real estate market, as e-commerce companies and omnichannel retailers will need more space to warehouse and process online shipments.” During the five-day “Cyber Week” period, online sales were up 12.6 percent nationwide, indicating that consumers are spreading their shopping activity over the course of the holiday season rather than just focusing on a single day. Traditional brick-and-mortar retailers seemed to reap the benefits of adopting omnichannel strategies, the report points out. On Cyber Monday, department stores recorded 17.9 percent year-over-year growth in online sales nationwide, while the biggest retailer in the U.S., Walmart, reported its best Cyber Monday ever. In response …
REBusinessOnline.com is conducting a brief online survey of brokers, lenders and the owner/developer/manager community to gauge market expectations for 2015, and we welcome your participation. This survey should only take a few minutes to complete. The results will appear as a news feature story in the January issues of our print magazines and we will excerpt findings for an article in this space in as well. Questions cover a variety of topics, ranging from the outlook for investment sales and leasing activity in 2015 to development and lending opportunities to interest rates. Note: We prefer to attribute comments we quote from open-ended responses, however you may respond anonymously if you prefer. SOUTHEAST REAL ESTATE BUSINESS For professionals located in Arkansas; Alabama; Florida; Georgia; Kentucky; Louisiana; Maryland; Mississippi; North Carolina; South Carolina; Tennessee; Virginia; Washington, D.C.; and West Virginia. Southeast brokers survey: click here Southeast developer/owner/manager survey: click here Southeast lender survey: click here NORTHEAST REAL ESTATE BUSINESS For professionals located in Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. Northeast brokers survey: click here Northeast developer/owner/manager survey: click here Northeast lender survey: click here TEXAS REAL ESTATE BUSINESS For professionals located in Texas …
Nearly half of multifamily housing commercial real estate professionals plan to expand their portfolios in 2015, according to a recent survey conducted by Capital One Multifamily Finance. Forty-three percent of respondents plan to be net buyers in 2015, while just 14 percent plan to be net sellers. The survey examined industry sentiment among West Coast-based professionals and was a follow-up to a similar East Coast survey in January. Asked which type of financing will be most important to their business in 2015, 52 percent of the 200 respondents who visited Capital One’s booth at an industry trade show pointed to acquisition financing. Financing for construction (21 percent) and refinance (20 percent) were also identified as important needs for businesses next year. Only 7 percent of respondents said that financing for lines of credit is a priority. According to the survey, seventy-four percent of respondents expect to approach banks and agency lenders for financing in the coming year. Fewer respondents will engage other capital sources (18 percent) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (8 percent). “Our survey reinforces that it’s truly a great time to be in the multifamily space,” says Grace Huebscher, president of Bethesda, Md.-based Capital One Multifamily Finance. “The industry’s …
Taxpayers and tax professionals researching market conditions to determine fair market value should consider any impending government actions. Even a rumor of a government project that would require acquisition of a property through eminent domain, or would impose restrictions on future use, can reduce the property’s market value and taxable value. Property values begin to suffer even before community leaders approve final plans or begin work on such a project. That’s because the belief that the project will occur places a cloud on the property owner’s ability to sell and on the price attainable in a sale. A potential buyer would be reluctant to acquire a property that will be involved in future condemnation litigation, with its inherent costs and delays, nor would a buyer welcome the uncertainty that those plans place on the property’s future use. The government taking may not involve acquisition of the property as a whole. Rather, it may remove some rights of use through restrictive zoning, creation of conservation corridors or the diversion or rerouting of traffic, for example. The property value declines because the wheels are turning to take away some of the rights of ownership, perhaps as much as 100 percent of those …