WASHINGTON, D.C. — Commercial real estate professionals indicate conditions in the industry have returned to approximately where they were before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to The National Association of Industrial and Office Parks (NAIOP) Fall 2021 Commercial Real Estate Sentiment Index. The index for September 2021 came in at 56 out of 100, up slightly from 54 in April 2021 and identical to March 2019, a year before the pandemic began. At the pandemic’s worst point — March through September 2020 — the index sank to 45. The NAIOP Sentiment Index was created to predict general conditions in the commercial real estate industry over the following 12 months by asking industry professionals to predict conditions for their own projects and markets. The Fall 2021 report surveyed a total of 357 respondents from 263 distinct companies from Sept. 7 to 14. The index asks respondents questions about jobs, space markets, construction costs, capital markets and other conditions for real estate development. A sentiment index below 50 means many believe there will be unfavorable commercial real estate conditions over the next 12 months; 50 means little to no change in commercial real estate conditions are expected; and greater than …
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In September, President Joe Biden issued a federal edict for large employers (100 employees or more) to require vaccines against COVID-19, or requiring weekly COVID-19 testing. The latest reporting out of Washington, D.C., is that the mandate carried out by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) will be enforced with hefty fines for noncompliance. Several blue-chip companies such as Anthem, Delta Air Lines, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, Twitter, Tyson Foods, ViacomCBS, The Walt Disney Co. and Walmart have already announced plans to get their workforce fully or close to fully vaccinated. Clinton McKellar, executive director of Cushman & Wakefield’s Atlanta office, says that in addition to protecting their employees’ health, a large-scale vaccine mandate could potentially facilitate a return to pre-pandemic norms for corporate America, thus more employees in the office. “Giving vaccinated employees the opportunity to safely return to the office allows for impromptu meetings and collaboration that is difficult to replicate in a remote environment,” says McKellar. “In Atlanta, what is proven out is that people, if given the choice, would rather work from home than come to the office and wear a mask.” Clients are telling brokers that their workers who are regularly in their office are …
Construction projects are taking longer to complete and costing more to build than they did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply of available materials dried up considerably during the pandemic due to shutdowns and social distancing requirements, which reduced capacity at manufacturing plants. Those supplies continue to be constrained, and lead times for receiving materials are massively elongated. For example, when placing orders for roofing insulation, builders can now expect a 180-day lead time versus just two weeks pre-pandemic, says Todd Sachse, CEO and founder of Detroit-based Sachse Construction. Open web steel joists now have a lead time of 35 to 45 weeks when previously they were available in four to six weeks. Even getting standard paint has been an issue, according to Sachse. The cost of lumber has come down to $399 per thousand board feet after spiking to an all-time high of $1,515 in May, according to Fortune. But there are still price hikes on shipping costs or items like glue, says Sachse. “These price hikes have cancelled projects, put some on hold and have placed a strain on subcontractors and trade partners who did not procure materials quickly and are not able to recoup the differences.” …
Newport Beach, Calif.-based CapRock Partners was busy before the pandemic, but shows no signs of slowing down even as brick-and-mortar retail reopens. The industrial investor, developer and asset manager’s newest venture is also its biggest: a 183-acre infill project in Phoenix where it plans to build an eight-building industrial complex that totals more than 3.4 million square feet. “Several years prior to the pandemic, we recognized the ecommerce trends along with the demand for larger logistics facilities and subsequently made investments in buildings and land positions in order to capture a segment of that demand,” says Bob O’Neill, CapRock’s senior vice president of acquisitions. “In the 16 months since the onset of the pandemic, our growth has accelerated.” Phoenix’s Industrial Market Rises CapRock has added about 4.8 million square feet of Phoenix-area industrial product to its portfolio since the pandemic’s onset. Its total pipeline in the Valley is now close to 6 million square feet, with its Phoenix-area acquisition closing in 2017. Aside from CapRock, Cushman & Wakefield also appears to be bullish on Phoenix’s industrial market. The firm projects Phoenix’s preliminary industrial absorption to be about 12 million square feet for the first half of 2021. This compares to …
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The majority of full-service and limited-service restaurant operators say that business conditions are worse now than they were three months ago, according to a new survey conducted by the National Restaurant Association. The study found that 44 percent of operators think it will take more than a year before business conditions return to normal, and 19 percent believe they never will. The National Restaurant Association conducted the study from Sept. 7-15 and surveyed 4,000 restaurant operators nationwide. Although the industry has added back many of the jobs lost during the pandemic, 78 percent of operators say their restaurant does not have enough employees to support current customer demand. Rising costs are impacting restaurants too. According to the survey, 91 percent of operators are paying more for their food; 84 percent have higher labor costs; and 63 percent are paying higher occupancy costs. At the same time, profitability is down — 85 percent of operators reported smaller margins than prior to the pandemic. While August is typically one of the busiest months for restaurants, 63 percent of operators reported that their sales volume for August 2021 was lower than it was in August 2019. Additionally, 78 percent of …
NEW YORK CITY — As more players enter the market, rising demand for net-leased commercial properties in the United States is leading to higher prices and lower capitalization rates, making it a good time to be a seller of such assets. According to a new report by national brokerage firm The Boulder Group, average cap rates for net-leased retail, office and industrial properties fell by 22, 15 and 19 basis points, respectively, between the second and third quarters of this year. The number of net-leased retail and office properties on the market both grew between the second and third quarters of this year, but the report noted that the sector is still defined by “significant investor demand combined with a limited supply of quality assets.” Like any other asset class, certain subcategories of net-leased product are performing better than others. Due to the compounding forces of e-commerce and a global pandemic, industrial remains a pack leader while office is shrouded with uncertainty. By the same logic, in the net-lease retail space, properties leased to essential service retailers and quick-service restaurants with outdoor seating are among the preferred investment vehicles. But on a broader level, institutional investors are growing their presence …
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Small-Balance Multifamily: Sizable and Resilient
While new-builds and top-of-the-line, large-scale developments typically attract the most buzz in the multifamily world, the vast majority of apartment properties in the United States have fewer than 100 units. These smaller properties play a vital role in delivering affordable and workforce rental housing inventory to the U.S. population. While the commercial real estate industry may refer to this sector of the multifamily market as “small,” make no mistake, “small” multifamily is not insignificant or inferior — it’s sizable and resilient. As other commercial real estate sectors paused during COVID-19, smaller multifamily properties and small-balance lending thrived. What does the future hold for this market? The Small Multifamily Market Defined The small multifamily market is highly fragmented with no clear definition of what constitutes “small” among capital sources. Generally, market statistics define the “small” multifamily sector by at least one of two measures: Unit count between five and 99 units; and/or Principal loan balance at origination between $1 million and $10 million[1] Strong Demand and Operating Fundamentals While the pandemic negatively impacted many areas of commercial real estate, with offices, retail shops and hotels largely shuttered across the U.S., the multifamily market remained resilient. Despite the past year’s challenges, multifamily …
By Jonathan Quinn, associate, RODE Architects The industrial typology is no longer reserved for business parks in remote locations. As economic issues, changes in technology and increased demand for skilled labor highlight the need for more localized production and distribution, industrial buildings are moving back to cities and residential areas. This presents a major opportunity for cities to reclaim and revitalize their aging industrial districts and increase employment opportunities within their markets. Proximity to population centers provides access to large customer bases, but it also requires that industrial architecture be approached in a different way. The scale reduction of the manufacturing systems and the movement to more clean and sustainable processes has solved part of this problem. As a profession, architects need to recognize that there are opportunities for good design to help integrate industrial projects as well. The program and needs of industrial projects are always unique, and in urban settings, it is critical that they respond well to the site and its adjacencies. One of RODE’s projects, 250 Marginal Street in Chelsea, Massachusetts, is a 146,000-square-foot freight forwarding facility that uses its materiality as one of its main design features. As the building is a large …
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Manufactured Housing Communities Garner Investor Interest
Interest in affordable paths to homeownership and the growing popularity of lower density living are raising the profile of the manufactured housing option among American households and investors. At the same time, the government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are making concerted efforts to better serve this historically underfinanced market at both the individual homeowner and community levels. The combination of robust cash flow growth (particularly in Sunbelt and Western markets), cap rate compression, and liquidity provided by the GSEs makes a compelling case for manufactured housing community (MHC) acquisitions and refinances. As increased competition has left market participants looking for an edge amidst compressing cap rates, the importance of working with an experienced MHC lender with access to short- and long-term loan programs has become more apparent. The following provides an in-depth analysis of the recent performance of rental MHCs, sales volume and pricing trends, and loan and underwriting trends in the MHC space. The Performance of the Site Rental Market The COVID-19 pandemic affected American housing preferences in profound ways. Increasingly, households are seeking lower density options with larger floor plans, home offices, and dedicated space for entertaining or distanced learning. This phenomenon …
By Taylor Williams Facing extended construction timelines and elevated costs of materials due to COVID-19’s disruption of global, national and local supply chains, multifamily developers are being forced to pivot, improvise and forge new relationships with suppliers in order to manage overall risk levels within their projects. Even before the pandemic, real estate developers and users across all asset classes understood how crucial competent supply chain management was to their budgets. But the global health crisis has reinforced that fact, especially for developers whose product type remains in high demand, such as housing providers in the rapidly growing state of Texas. In terms of basic economics, when COVID-19 hit and ground global commerce to a halt, suppliers across a range of industries decreased their inventories in response to sluggish demand for sundry goods and services. With vaccines now widely available, travel picking back up and businesses reopening at full capacity, pent-up demand is being unleashed on these industries, including real estate development, forcing suppliers to rebuild their inventories. Yet this process is not a simple matter of flipping a switch back on. Furthermore, being aware of a problem is very different from actually solving it. And a global pandemic that …