Daniel Taub is a well-known name in the retail real estate world. He spent most of his career with DLC Management, one of the nation’s largest open-air center owners, heading up leasing and eventually becoming president and chief operating officer of the company. In October, Taub joined Marcus & Millichap as senior vice president and national director of the firm’s retail division. In his new role, Taub will be helping the firm’s retail brokers with deals, as well as advising clients. He recently spoke to Shopping Center Business editor Randall Shearin about his new role, and about the challenges ahead for the retail sector. Shopping Center Business: Why is now the right time for you to take on the challenge of this role at Marcus & Millichap? Daniel Taub: Timing. As has been the case during other cyclical moments that have impacted the commercial real estate sector, while the pandemic is horrific and unfortunate for everyone, firms that are focused and well positioned to be proactive, go on the offensive and identify opportunities across the platform where it can build on its successes, including in the retail space. The headlines in retail were challenging before the pandemic; there was obviously …
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In early 2020, the rapidly unfolding pandemic threatened to derail Texas’ property tax assessment and appeal process. With stay-at-home orders being issued at the same time that appraisal districts were sending out initial values for 2020, uncertainty cast doubt on how the process would proceed, or even whether it would proceed at all. Taxing entities were concerned with revenue impacts, and taxpayers were concerned about their ability to pay. Texas launches the property tax cycle every Jan. 1 with a revaluation of property. In most jurisdictions, taxpayers expect to receive notices of appraised value sometime in April, with the deadline for protesting the appraised value typically falling in May. Under normal circumstances, these dates begin the property tax protest cycle for the year. On March 31, 2020, however, the “typical year” quickly became anything but. Appraisal districts faced the nearly impossible task of navigating an unprecedented scenario with limited time and resources. Their success in maintaining a functioning appeals process is a testament to the professionalism of the state’s chief appraisers and personnel and to the fundamental strength of Texas’ property tax system. We queried chief appraisers and commercial supervisors from several appraisal districts about their experiences from the past …
For years, interbank offered rates, including USD LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate), have been the most-referenced benchmark interest rates in the world. However, global indexing is moving to risk-free rates, including the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the United States, with pivotal milestones taking place between now and the end of 2021. Here’s what this transition means for the multifamily sector, dates to watch for, and steps to take now. View higher resolution version of timeline above here. What is SOFR? SOFR is based on overnight repurchase agreements, with cash borrowers posting U.S. treasuries as collateral with an agreement to buy them back at a specified date. The daily SOFR can be subject to spikes, so agency lenders will use a 30-day compounded average to smooth out volatility based on recommendations from the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC). SOFR has no credit component, so the market will likely accommodate by charging some additional spread for new SOFR-based products. While enough futures and swaps activity has transpired since 2018 to develop the shorter part of a term curve, the longer part of the curve will be addressed by fourth quarter of 2020, particularly as the CME and LCH clearing houses convert …
More Multifamily Housing Needed to Combat Affordability Crisis, Bernanke Tells Marcus & Millichap CEO
by John Nelson
The affordability of housing in the United States is currently under extreme duress as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic recession. Since March, approximately 53 percent of all households earning $25,000 to $49,999 reported lost income, according to a recent report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University entitled “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2020.” One net effect of less discretionary income is that monthly rent is becoming a heavier burden for a large number of Americans, especially in gateway markets such as San Francisco and New York City where apartment rents have been unattainable for a large swath of the working class for years. For the lowest earning renters, affordability of rent is even more acute as a result of the pandemic. According to the Harvard report, one in five renters earning less than $25,000 annually was behind on rent payments. Dr. Ben Bernanke, a veteran economist and former chair of the Federal Reserve, said that the solution to the U.S. affordable housing situation may be overly simple: add more supply. “You learn on the first day of economics that if you increase the supply of something, the price is going to …
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, retail and restaurant space has been severely impacted by government-mandated shutdowns. While some stay-at-home orders have been lifted, the sector has struggled to return to its pre-pandemic norms. As a result, lenders have shied away from retail, whether it be construction, refinancing or acquisition loans, according to an expert panel assembled by France Media, Inc. Retail has “lost a lot of favor” with lenders, said Pierce Mayson, managing principal of SRS Real Estate Partners, during a webinar panel titled “Southeast Retail Investment Outlook: Will Retail Investment Activity Bounce Back in 2021?” Southeast Real Estate Business and Shopping Center Business jointly hosted the webinar on Monday, Nov. 16. “There is still some money out there for retail, but it’s few and far between,” said Mayson. Joining Mayson on the panel were Fred Victor, vice president of capital markets and investment sales at Transwestern; Greg Matus, senior vice president of investment sales at Franklin Street; Jeff Enck, associate director of capital investments at Stan Johnson Co.; and moderator Craig Thompson, partner at accounting firm Carr Riggs & Ingram. One telltale sign that banks are bearish on the retail real estate sector is the fact that …
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Cleveland, Milwaukee & St. Louis Multifamily Forecasts Indicate Case for Caution
In earlier research, we found that investors may find advantageous risk and reward tradeoffs during the pandemic in often overlooked Midwest secondary markets. For the most part, average rent and occupancy metrics in these markets continued to rise throughout the summer, recession notwithstanding. Together, their inviting cap rates, rising NOI and low historic income volatility form a fairly compelling investment predicate. We also found that positive performance attributes were not limited to the region’s most robust economies. Even metropolitan markets that have experienced slow demographic growth — like Cincinnati and Detroit — posted surprisingly good revenue growth. Can the same logic be extended to metropolitan areas experiencing actual demographic decline? A review of recent trends in three “high-yield” markets with negative population growth – Cleveland, Milwaukee and St. Louis – shed some light on the question. View higher resolution version of chart above here. With respect to occupancy, the answer is yes. In fact, property level data published by Yardi suggest that market conditions in each of these metro areas has been constructive since February. Between February and October, average occupancy among stabilized same-store property samples increased by 14 basis points in Cleveland and 10 bps in St. Louis, in …
By Marc Betesh, founder and CEO of Visual Lease While the commercial real estate industry has experienced many uncertainties during the pandemic, the industrial and logistics market continues to thrive. With the rapid acceleration of e-commerce in the wake of COVID-19, major online retailers are picking up large warehousing and manufacturing spaces to keep up with the surge in demand, which is ultimately responsible for industrial real estate experiencing vacancies at historic lows in 2020. The trend of moving operations online is likely to continue at a faster pace after the pandemic subsides. Major retail companies have taken notice and are starting to capitalize on available real estate, converting square footage in malls to last-mile delivery centers and buying up spaces in logistics parks. To accommodate the increase in tenant demand, the industrial real estate market has already started to adapt. However, with all of the additional leases that have occurred in the short-term, is there still opportunity for this sector to grow? Who Are Industrial’s Biggest Winners? According to the U.S. Commerce Department, during the first half of 2020, e-commerce sales rose by 44 percent relative to that period in 2019. This rate of growth marked the highest year-over-year …
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Affordable Housing Sector is a Seller’s Market as New Buyers Enter the Fray, Says Exclusive Webinar Panel
by John Nelson
Like many industries, the U.S. affordable housing sector has undergone a sea change stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. Processes and protocols have changed for affordable housing professionals, some perhaps permanently. Closings are conducted virtually and some of the front-end work such as appraisals and subsidy applications look completely different than a year ago. The “new normal” that industry professionals are navigating has had a few stops and starts since March, but the sector is now in a place of relative comfort, and that’s led to investment sales picking up, according to Kevin Morris, senior director of Colliers International’s Affordable Housing Services team. “By trial and error, we’ve had to figure out systems and programs to do business,” said Morris, who is based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “We’ve gone through these couple of stages, and now we’re at a point where we can implement and have implemented systems and programs that will take us through this particular pandemic. We’re transacting now, and so in that regard it is kind of back to normal.” Morris was one of six panelists that comprised the broker and lender panel at Affordable Housing Southeast, a webinar hosted by Southeast Real Estate Business magazine. Kyle Shoemaker, …
The editors of REBusinessOnline.com are conducting a brief online survey to gauge market conditions in 2021, and we welcome your participation. The survey should only take a few minutes to complete. Questions range from property sectors that you are most bullish on heading into 2021 to trends in deal volume to your outlook for interest rates. The results of our 10th annual survey will be collated and published in the January issues of our regional magazines. Conducting these surveys is part of our mission at France Media to provide readers with indispensable information, and we couldn’t do it without your help. To participate in our broker/agent survey, click here. To participate in our developer/owner/manager survey, click here. To participate in our lender/financial intermediary survey, click here. (Note: Please remember to click on “done” to properly submit the survey.)
Investors favor multifamily markets with brisk population growth and meaningful barriers to entry. But can a case be made in turbulent times for slow-growth Midwest cities characterized by weak entry barriers? View higher resolution version of chart above here. Midwest metro areas with relatively healthy demographic growth — Columbus, Indianapolis and Kansas City come to mind — have posted constructive performance trends during the pandemic recession so far, particularly with respect to rent. Among the 10 largest Midwest markets, Columbus recorded the fastest rent growth over the past three years (18.2 percent, according to Yardi Matrix) and nearly the fastest since the beginning of the pandemic (2.9 percent between February and October). Indeed, Columbus, Indianapolis (2.7 percent) and Kansas City (2.3 percent) respectively recorded the third, fourth and sixth fastest rent trends in the region since February, and each readily topped the -1.1 percent U.S. primary and secondary market average. The fastest rent growth in the region, however, was recorded by two metro areas not blessed with brisk population growth — Cincinnati and Detroit. Between February and October all property rents increased 3.0 percent in Cincinnati and 3.4 percent in Detroit, figures exceeded in only a handful of markets nationally. …