Features

COVID-19 Was ‘Black Swan’ Event for Student Housing, But Outlook Is Promising, Says NMHC/InterFace Panelist

by Katie Sloan October 20, 2020

Over the course of the past six months, the student housing industry has grappled with a variety of challenges. For colleges and universities, the largest hurdle heading into the fall semester was deciding the safest route to take for reopening campus. This included decisions on everything from whether or not in-person learning would be allowed, to whether students would be welcomed back into residence halls at normal volumes. These questions was deliberated over throughout the summer, sending a ripple effect through the industry as transactional volume slowed while investors waited to see how universities would proceed. As we move toward the close of October, universities have selected their path forward, and while these choices haven’t been set in stone due to the changing nature of the coronavirus, the industry is now able to get a better view of the pandemic’s impact on the fall semester and the outlook moving forward. Leaders in market analytics and multifamily research sat down for an early afternoon panel yesterday at the NMHC/InterFace Student Housing Conference to provide a comprehensive update on the economy at large with a focus on the student housing sector. Economic Update “COVID-19 ended almost an 11-year expansion period for the …

October 20, 2020

District of Columbia Features Southeast

ULI Panelists Address Social Inequity, Urban Exodus in Emerging Trends Session

by John Nelson October 15, 2020

The U.S. commercial real estate industry is currently balancing a host of market disruptors, and the good news is that those forces are no longer shrouded in mystery like they were at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Speaking at the annual ULI Fall Meeting, real estate professionals outlined social inequity in the industry, teleworking, and the population and investment exodus from gateway markets as the main issues that the industry will face in 2021. The Urban Land Institute (ULI) hosted the discussion at its annual meeting Oct. 14 to a broad spectrum of the commercial real estate industry. Originally scheduled to take place in San Francisco, ULI made the decision to host the event virtually, symbolizing the change that the Washington, D.C.-based organization tackled in greater detail during the panel and in the 111-page Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2021 report. The annual conference concluded Oct. 15. The theme for Emerging Trends 2021, a joint production between ULI and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), is “Dealing with Certain Uncertainties,” with the caveat that an advancement in treatment or vaccine for COVID-19 would be the top economic influencer for the new year. Factors to watch in 2021 Social unrest in the wake of …

October 15, 2020

Content Partner Heartland Feature Archive Illinois Lument Midwest Multifamily RED Capital Group

Investors Seek Safe Harbor in Chicago’s Apartment Market

by Sarah Daniels October 14, 2020

Multifamily investors prefer to concentrate capital in the primary markets. Although prices are steep and cap rates low, the gateway cities offer private equity and institutional buyers the young, affluent tenants, economic diversification, deep trough of performance data and property market liquidity that can’t be found in smaller cities. Gateway cities offer these assets…until they don’t. The pandemic recession has turned the usual way of looking at things upside down. At least for the moment, tenants are fleeing the high costs and perceived dangers of dense urban living for the relative safety and larger floor plans found in suburbs and, in some cases, secondary and tertiary markets. The impact on property performance is significant. In the modern urban mid- and high-rise buildings favored by large portfolio investors, occupancy and rents are down materially, trimming forward-looking net operating income 15 percent or more in many Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco buildings. Determining fair asset value is nearly impossible under the circumstances. Buyers still may be willing to bid at prices generating deeply sub-4 percent initial yields but only against conservatively underwritten NOI levels that discount an extended period of performance weakness. Few owners are willing to realize the resulting …

October 14, 2020

Conference Coverage Features North Carolina Office South Carolina Southeast

Economy is Bouncing Back Ahead of Schedule, Says Wells Fargo Economist at InterFace Event

by John Nelson October 12, 2020

Just a few months after getting hammered by a pandemic-induced recession, the U.S. economy is rebounding faster than anticipated, according to Mark Vitner, managing director and senior economist with Well Fargo Securities. During his keynote address to kick off the 11th annual InterFace Carolinas conference on Oct. 1, Vitner said the consensus estimate suggests U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at annualized rate of 30 percent in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will officially unveil its first estimate for third-quarter GDP on Thursday, Oct. 29. If realized, the gain would nearly offset the 31.4 percent decline in GDP in the second quarter. “This recession is the worst we’ve ever seen in terms of job loss and declines in GDP, but it was the shortest we’ve ever seen,” said Vitner. “All the decline we saw was in the second half of March and the first half of April. Since April 15 we’ve been recovering.” Employers added 661,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in September, which was nearly 200,000 jobs below the expectations of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Still, the economy has recovered 11.4 million of the 22 million jobs lost since the beginning of …

October 12, 2020

Conference Coverage Features North Carolina South Carolina Southeast Southeast Feature Archive

Lending Environment Still Rocky Due to Pandemic, Say Panelists at InterFace Carolinas

by Alex Tostado October 8, 2020

The lending environment for commercial real estate has started to bounce back in recent months, but there is still hesitation to close deals across most property sectors. There are some attractive opportunities for lenders in today’s climate, such as multifamily and grocery-anchored retail. That was the sentiment expressed during the virtual InterFace Carolinas panel, titled “Capital Markets Update: When and What will Unfreeze the Lending and Financing Environment?” France Media Inc.’s InterFace Conference Group and Southeast Real Estate Business hosted the event Thursday, Oct. 1. Before the coronavirus pandemic caused a nationwide shutdown, the lending environment was the most competitive it had been in recent memory, according to Aaron Derby, managing director at Benefit Street Partners. “The world went from a competitive market to a shutdown overnight,” said Derby. “Capital markets are very temperamental.” Joining Derby on the panel was Hugh Allen, senior vice president and commercial real estate regional director for TD Bank; Steve Clikas, vice president of investments at Protective Life Insurance Co.; Preslava Kovatchevska, director multifamily production and sales at Freddie Mac; and panel moderator Matthew Rocco, president and national production manager for Grandbridge. CMBS market rebounding Derby says that while his firm continued lending in April …

October 8, 2020

California Content Partner Features Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Western Western Feature Archive

Rents Weaken, Investors Stay Active in San Diego Multifamily Market

by Sarah Daniels October 5, 2020

By Daniel J. Hogan The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt more severely in Southern California than in most areas of the country. The Southland’s high concentration of employment in the tourism and entertainment sectors made it especially vulnerable to the effects of social distancing protocols and the reluctance of many to board commercial aircraft. Not only were job losses particularly acute in the initial months of the pandemic — the subsequent recovery has been lethargic. The rate of unemployment for July in each of the four large Southern California metropolitan markets remained materially above the national average, and in the case of Los Angeles County (18.2 percent) was the highest of any metropolitan area west of the Hudson River save for Yuma and El Centro. As it always has, Southern California will recover and is likely to do so in even more spectacular fashion than before. In the interim, how can multifamily investors position themselves to prosper? San Diego is the ideal market to scrutinize possible changes in renter behavior during the pandemic and consider their potential investment implications. Indeed, a deep dive into this market may provide clues to some of the great mysteries of …

October 5, 2020

Features Multifamily Seniors Housing

Survey: Independent Living Residents, Staff Feel Safe During Pandemic

by Jeff Shaw October 1, 2020

SOUTHFIELD, MICH., and CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A national survey of independent living community residents, staff and prospective residents showed that those in the community overwhelmingly felt safe so far during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, respondents said they were confident that communities had taken appropriate precautions to keep them safe. Plante Moran Living Forward, the Southfield-based senior living development consulting division of Plante Moran Cresa and an affiliated entity of Plante Moran, partnered with Retirement Dynamics, a Charlotte-based senior living consulting firm, to complete the research. In June and July of this year the companies surveyed more than 23,000 residents and staff at senior living communities across the country, along with prospective future residents. While prospects worried about social isolation, shopping and other daily tasks when living in their own homes, survey results showed only a slight decrease in their likelihood to move into an independent living community as a result of the pandemic. The survey also revealed: 92 percent of staff felt the community where they worked responded well to the COVID-19 pandemic. 93 percent of residents felt their community took all precautions to keep them safe. 85 percent of staff agreed residents “are safer in their community than in …

October 1, 2020

Lee Associates quote Jacobson Healthcare460

Content Partner Features Healthcare Lee & Associates Midwest

Lee & Associates: Healthcare is a Slow but Steady Sector

by Sarah Daniels September 29, 2020

Healthcare has very different drivers when it comes to growth and demand. While highs and lows in the economy influence healthcare in many of the same ways other industries experience, it’s also governed by trends that are unique to how people seek — and pay for — their medical treatments. Chris Jacobson and Susan Wilson, both vice presidents and healthcare advisors for Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services, took some time recently to talk to REBusinessOnline about today’s healthcare real estate trends. Taking a broad look across the sector, some healthcare systems have lost revenue due to suspending elective procedures during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. “It’s going to take them a while to recoup that revenue,” Wilson says. “Additionally, now that they have reopened, they are spacing people out in waiting rooms, so they’re seeing fewer patients. There are currently opportunities for subleases with some major health systems. This could be an opportunity for some of the larger, more successful health systems to take over some of that space.” Jacobson has observed that there are three types of investments occurring right now. The first of those are large healthcare systems presently focused on COVID-19-related care. The …

September 29, 2020

Acquisitions Features Georgia Leasing Activity Southeast Southeast Feature Archive

Sale-Leasebacks are a Popular Choice for Cash-Strapped Companies During the Pandemic, Says Stonemont’s Berryhill

by John Nelson September 25, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced commercial real estate owners to explore every possible avenue to raise funds, and one of the more popular transactional methods to secure capital in recent months has proven to be sale-leasebacks. Jeff Berryhill, principal of Stonemont Financial Group, says that companies that have traditionally owned their real estate are turning to sale-leasebacks because it mimics many aspects of ownership, such as long-term control of the asset. “During recessionary times or periods of extreme capital markets volatility, a sale-leaseback can appear more attractive to companies that historically owned real estate,” says Berryhill. “However, leasing real estate has always been appealing to both large and small companies, and strong and weak credit profiles.” According to research from Real Capital Analytics (RCA), sale-leaseback deals accounted for 5 percent of all investment sales in the U.S. industrial, office and retail transactions in the second quarter. For the previous three quarters, sale-leasebacks accounted for 2 percent of investment sales in those sectors for deals $2.5 million and greater. Recent sale-leaseback deals include Jervey Eye Group selling and leasing back a portfolio of medical office facilities in Upstate South Carolina; Crash Champions selling a portfolio of auto body shops in metro …

September 25, 2020

California Content Partner Lument Multifamily RED Capital Group Western Western Feature Archive Western Market Reports

In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector

by Sarah Daniels September 24, 2020

Orange County offers residents all the key elements of the American dream. Its virtues are numerous and faults few. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics ranks the quality of life in the OC 10th highest among the 378 U.S. metros it reports on, just a half-step behind leaders Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. Orange County is a terrific place to live, but is it a good place to invest? Gauging by observed capitalization rate trends, one may conclude that county apartment properties are highly prized gems. Class A trophy properties trade to going-in yields in the 4.00 percent to 4.10 percent area, and Class B and C garden complexes are typically priced to yields in the mid-4s, all only 25 basis points or so behind Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area comparisons. But judging from transaction velocity, one might draw a different conclusion. Only six Orange County multifamily properties of 50 units or more have changed hands since mid-year 2019, and not a single sale has closed since February. Even by the cautious norms of the moment, this stands out as a market in search of price discovery. Slow transaction velocity can be ascribed, in part, to the prevailing buy and …

September 24, 2020

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