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As markets, consumers and businesses react to the novel coronavirus, lenders and mortgage bankers across the country find themselves reflecting on the volatility that characterized the multifamily debt market in 2019 and wondering just how similar 2020 could be. To be sure, market uncertainty is par for the course during presidential election years, and the market event related to coronavirus is creating additional anxiety. The multifamily debt markets are also working to move away from the LIBOR index as a benchmark for pricing loans to a new index, creating the need for adjustment within the industry when that move takes effect in 2021. But beyond those factors, lenders and mortgage bankers anticipate continued strength in multifamily loan production fueled by strong fundamentals and low interest rates. These topics formed the basis of discussion for much of the Mortgage Bankers Association and CREFC’s Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo, held February 9-12 in San Diego. The event afforded ample opportunities for publications that cover the industry to meet individually with multifamily finance professionals and gauge their outlooks on the health and prospective performance of the market in 2020.  Rebusinessonline.com took advantage of those opportunities to sit down and talk with Rich Martinez, …

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How Will COVID-10 Impact CRE?

REBusinessOnline has compiled a number of commercial real estate industry reports and webinars to help readers find the information they need regarding coronavirus (COVID-19) and commercial real estate. The reports are organized by relevance and timeliness. (This page is no longer updated as of June 1, 2020.) Interested in coronavirus-related news items posted by REBusinessOnline? Click here for the feed. Interested in commercial real estate-related webinars focusing on responses to the pandemic? Click here for the list. Webinars Student Housing Business Up Close with Bill Bayless (05/04/2020) How to Maintain Leasing Velocity in Today’s Environment (04/30/2020) COVID-19 & the Impact on Student Housing: The CEO Perspective (04/17/2020) The Impact of COVID-19 on Student Housing (03/25/2020) Marcus & Millichap Marcus & Millichap Special Update: Multifamily Legislation (05/13/2020) The Shape of Things to Come: How Will the Economy and Retail Real Estate Look After the Global Health Crisis? (05/18/2020) InterFace Conference Group Seniors Housing Marketing and Sales During the Pandemic and Beyond (Upcoming 05/20/2020) California Retail Reboot — How Will California’s Retail and Restaurant Sector Recover Post-Coronavirus? (05/21/2020) Atlanta Retail Reboot (05/08/2020) Texas Retail Reboot (05/07/2020) The Short- and Long-term Impact of COVID-19 on Healthcare and Medical Office Real Estate   (04/14/2020, Fee is …

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The Shops at Canal Place New Orleans

With the stock market dropping to lows unprecedented since the Great Recession on Monday and the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring the outbreak of COVID-19 a pandemic, concerns are now rising regarding coronavirus’ long-term impact on domestic investments. But will the disease have any impact on brick-and-mortar retail? According to a research report from JLL, while retail supply chains have already been affected, the health of retail as whole depends heavily on how long the pandemic lasts. Certain sectors have already been impacted, and those in the industry can model their current economic outlook on the course SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) took in 2003. However, whether that model will hold as the pandemic evolves remains to be seen. The JLL report explains that the type of short-lived and limited outbreak created by SARS mainly affects the “first and second quarters with many retailers feeling impacts of a disrupted supply chain, but with a subsequent rebound in the following quarters.” Sectors already affected include inventory and complex supply lines. Chinese-manufactured goods may not be able to reach retailers in the coming weeks to months, as the retailers’ existing supply diminishes. Fashion stocks, especially for luxury retailers dependent on Chinese consumers …

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victory

The modern craft beer brewery has emerged as a niche community anchor with flexible business models and loyal customer bases across the United States, particularly in the Northeast. Combining elements of retail, industrial and hospitality models, craft breweries have quickly become one of the most dynamic and trendy business types in major cities and small towns, alike. Some of the largest and most popular craft breweries in the United States are based in the Northeast, including the two largest: Pennsylvania-based D.G. Yuengling & Son Inc.; and Boston Beer Co., the parent company of Samuel Adams. Vermont has the most breweries per capita in the United States with more than 66, according to the national Brewers Association’s most recent nationwide census in 2018. The census identified more than 155 breweries in Massachusetts and more than 354 breweries in Pennsylvania — and those numbers have only increased over time. “Massachusetts and Pennsylvania both have a long history in brewing, and there’s a lot of variation from region to region — even city to city,” says Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association. “Breweries appeal to their hyper-local community and also can bring in a lot of tourism and outside dollars. During …

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Rob Rotach Walker Dunlop

Many of today’s headlines about multifamily housing have focused on the market’s two extremes: homelessness and high-end penthouses. Meanwhile, a crisis has been growing in the “missing middle;” there is a shortage of affordable rental housing for middle-class workers like teachers, firefighters and police officers. In recent years, middle-income families have been struggling with flat wages and rising childcare, education and healthcare costs. Not only are families being priced out of homeownership, but they’re finding fewer rental units in their price range. Indeed, rents have been rising, particularly in cities with booming economies. Nationwide, only 37 percent of all available units rent out at or below $1,200 per month, according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) Out of Reach report and the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Yet only in 13 states do workers earn an average of at least $22.96 per hour, the amount required to comfortably afford a $1,200/month apartment. Charlotte is short 34,000 affordable housing units and Salt Lake City lacks 54,000. In total, there is a need for hundreds of thousands more affordable rental units. The problem is a matter of supply as well as demand. Formidable obstacles currently impede the …

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LOS ANGELES — There is a deficit in seniors housing and it has nothing to do with occupancy rates, investment dollars or development opportunities. It’s the labor shortage, according to Charles Turner, a longtime industry veteran and current CEO of Kare, an application that pairs understaffed seniors housing communities with temporary workers. Turner made the comments as keynote speaker at France Media’s InterFace Seniors Housing West conference, held Feb. 20 at the Omni Los Angeles. “We all know what’s coming in the next decade — an onslaught of baby boomers aging into seniors housing — but what many don’t realize is that the number of caregivers is actually declining,” he said to the audience of about 250 attendees. “I wish I could say I have all the solutions to the labor problems. I don’t.” Citing a study by New York-based senior care researcher PHI, Turner mentioned there will be a national shortage of around 150,000 paid caregivers by 2030, which may compound as older caregivers also age out of the workforce and transition from worker to would-be resident. Though these forward-looking numbers are scary, Turner believes the problems plaguing today’s seniors housing caregivers were scarier. “Caregiving today has high employee turnover,” he …

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Washington and North Virginia Rent Occupancy Graph

Washington and Northern Virginia are among the nation’s most expensive places to rent an apartment, which in part explains the billions of dollars being spent on apartment construction there. But Capital Area asset returns in the post-recession era haven’t clearly supported these decisions. From 2013 to 2018, rents in Washington and NoVA increased at respective compound annual rates of 3.2 percent and 2.6 percent, tabulating Reis data, materially slower than the 4.7 percent average growth recorded by the 50 largest U.S. apartment markets. Likewise, occupancy trends were no better than average, muted by heavy supply, suggesting that Washington NOI growth in most cases was measurably slower than in alternative markets. But everything changed last year. Although Washington has been a technology player for decades, the region’s strengths fell primarily in telecom and defense, markets in which proximity to government was a competitive advantage. But the region’s growing prowess in private applications of digital technology reached critical mass in 2019 with Amazon’s decision to site its East Coast headquarters in Northern Virginia, specifically with a view toward tapping its deep reservoir of high-tech talent. The impact on economic growth in the capital is only beginning and seems likely to fundamentally alter …

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LOS ANGELES — The retail industry is evolving, and the tried and true formulas for development are no longer enough to attract shoppers. The convenience of e-commerce is cutting into purchases once almost exclusively entrusted to local strip centers, and consumer tastes are evolving to demand better experiences from the centers they choose to shop at with their discretionary dollars. Joseph Pine, author of “The Experience Economy,” shared these thoughts during a keynote address on the importance of staging retail centers. The speech was delivered at France Media’s sixth annual Entertainment Experience Evolution conference at the JW Marriott L.A. Live in Los Angeles earlier this month. “What people want today are experiences — they are their own distinct economic offering,” said Pine. “When you use goods as props, and services as the stage to engage each individual in an inherently purposeful way, you’re able to create a memory, which is the hallmark of experience.” In today’s economy, retailers and shopping centers are competing for a visitor’s time, attention and money. When assessing one’s property and its success level within the market, Pine noted it’s important to answer three key questions. “You need to consider whether or not your customers are …

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Philadelphia Rent & Occupancy Graph 2020

Interest in Philadelphia among commercial real estate investors has been on the rise for years. But the Eastern Pennsylvania market managed to maintain a relatively low profile in the public consciousness, overshadowed by its larger East Coast primary market rivals, each with its own clear brand identity. But this is largely a thing of the past. Philadelphia has emerged lately as a leader in cutting-edge biotech and life science innovation. The city is a magnet for gene and cell-level therapy entrepreneurs, a status that is rapidly evolving into a distinct brand. Billions in venture capital and real estate investment have followed, elevating the Athens of America to the top rank of U.S. competitors for global investment cash. The multifamily sector is a chief beneficiary of the trend. Fueled by strong demand for luxury space, builders ratcheted apartment development higher over the past 10 years, raising construction starts from about 4,000 units per year at mid-decade to 6,000 annually since 2017. Currently, there are about 8,000 multifamily units under construction, and the pace isn’t likely to slow much this year. The magnitude of the supply surge is anticipated with a degree of trepidation in some quarters. Philadelphia renters have never absorbed …

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CARLSBAD, CALIF. — Commercial real estate investors, brokers and lenders are expecting a surge of activity in the first half of 2020, according to the 2020 RCM LightBox Investor Sentiment Report. Participants of the survey noted the intersection of strong market fundamentals, ample investor capital and the potential for increasing headwinds generated by a slowing economy, the impending presidential election and other factors. The report is sponsored by RCM Lightbox, a commercial real estate online marketplace and database facilitating commercial real estate transactions. Incorporating views from more than 275 investors, brokers, lenders and economists, the report found that nearly 70 percent of participants believe 2020 investment activity will be the same or higher than in 2019. Almost 80 percent believe 2020 sale prices also will be the same or higher as well. “In the first half of the year, capital will rush to put money to work ahead of the election and before the Fed changes its mind on interest rates,” says K.C. Conway, chief economist of the CCIM Institute and director of research and corporate engagement at the Alabama Center of Real Estate (ACRE). “The wind is at your back for the first six months.” Presidential election will create …

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