Features

New York Multifamily Rent and Occupancy Forecast 2020

New York state authorities last year passed legislation designed to maintain rental affordability and housing stability in the Empire State. Mandated changes for units not currently subject to stabilization were mostly technical in nature — relating to rent increase notification periods, evictions and security deposits — but the impact on the New York City’s nearly 1 million regulated units was significant. Previously, an owner’s ability to raise stabilized unit rents was limited by a city board, except upon vacancy or after major property or unit improvements were made. These exceptions were curtailed by the legislation, largely negating the appeal of buying, renovating and repositioning older properties. The regulations sent a chill through the recently hot New York City multifamily property market. Sales volume dropped by half last year to about $3.3 billion, with the largest declines coming after the law took effect at mid-year. Indeed, volume in the typically busy fourth quarter plunged to less than $200 million, the lowest single-quarter sales total since recessionary 2010. Although obscured by thin volume, cap rates appeared to rise. After hovering near 4 percent throughout 2018, institutional B/B+ quality asset purchase yields gapped higher, drifting up to about 4.25 percent at mid-year and …

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LOS ANGELES — In today’s retail environment, adding local food and beverage concepts, entertainment venues and landscaped parks seems like a surefire way to revitalize a dated shopping center. A trickier task is determining how exactly these nontraditional concepts boost the bottom line. A panel of retail owners and service providers weighed in on this topic at France Media’s sixth annual Entertainment Experience Evolution conference at the JW Marriott L.A. Live in Los Angeles last week. “This panel started because I’m a bit of a skeptic as it relates to entertainment concepts,” says moderator Joyce Storm, president of Storm Advisors. “Investors don’t like when you discuss entertainment experiences; developers and owners have trouble making sense of where they should put their dollars and cents, time, energy and resources. It’s important to understand what to expect in terms of results from entertainment concepts and placemaking in order to determine the money that should be funneled into them.” For Steven Levin, founder and CEO of Centennial Real Estate, the challenge and opportunity in reimagining dated, traditional malls to fit the needs of today’s shopper is in the underwriting. “Transforming a traditional mall into a mixed-use destination provides an opportunity and a challenge …

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Boston Multifamily Rent and Occupancy Forecast 2020

The country’s largest commercial real estate services firm recently selected Boston as its choice for strongest U.S. gateway multifamily market performer for 2020, and with good reason. The Eastern Massachusetts economy gained momentum in 2019, propelled by its world class “Eds and Meds” cluster and resurgent high tech, R&D and financial management communities. Income growth and job creation ran ahead of national averages and apartment markets remained tight and rent growth robust regardless of elevated supply. Investor demand for metro apartment properties surged, especially after mid-year, while cap rates remained accessible by primary market standards, especially in the suburban Class B segment. Metro job creation trends fell into a bit of a funk in the fall and winter of 2018-2019 but rebounded vigorously in the second half. Payrolls increased at a brisk 31,200-job, 1.7 percent year-on-year pace after mid-year, representing the fastest growth recorded in three years. Sector leadership was provided by Boston’s top knowledge industry sectors, headed by higher education (8.5 percent), research and development (9.8 percent), software and computer network design (4.9 percent) and financial management (2.6 percent). Only softness in the consumer-driven side of the labor market – construction, retail trade, personal services and government – held …

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When it comes to property taxes, what you don’t know can hurt you. Whether it is failing to meet a valuation protest deadline, ignorance of available exemptions or perhaps missing an error in the assessment records, an oversight can cost a taxpayer dearly. Understanding common mistakes — and consulting with local property tax professionals — can help owners avoid the pain of unnecessarily high property tax bills. Think ahead on property taxes Many owners ignore property taxes until a valuation notice or tax bill arrives, but paying attention to tax considerations at other times can greatly benefit a taxpayer. For example, it’s good practice to ask the following questions before purchasing real estate, starting a project or receiving a tax bill. Does the property qualify for exemptions or incentives? Every state offers some form of property tax exemptions to specific taxpayers and property types. Examples include those for residential homesteads, charitable activities by some nonprofits and exemptions for pollution control equipment. Similarly, governments use partial or full property tax abatements in their incentive programs for enticing businesses to expand or relocate to their communities. While many of these programs are industry-specific, it is important to consider all of the taxpayer’s …

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LOS ANGELES — Seniors housing development costs are expected to rise modestly in 2020, with labor and land the primary drivers of higher expenditure, according to research from Los Angeles-based CBRE. Total cost for a seniors housing development rose by 6.4 percent in 2019 to an average of $317 per square foot. Average returns (stabilized net operating income as a percentage of overall development costs) rose to 9.5 percent, up approximately 60 basis points in 2019. This is attributable to an uptick in perceived risk due to lower occupancy rates on a national basis. “While seniors housing development activity is expected to remain strong in 2020, returns on cost expectations have increased, which is evidence of elevated perceived risk,” says James Graber, managing director of valuation and advisory services for CBRE. “Developers are applying a more rigorous project selection process to position each planned community for success; this disciplined approach has resulted in a tempered number of construction starts projected for this year. “Overall, the ‘flight to quality’ is a primary driver in the seniors housing development process, incorporating a well-organized collaboration between developer, operator and capital markets,” concludes Graber. Hard costs (e.g. labor, site work, foundation, building shell construction, …

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Mike Coyne Walker & Dunlop

Think Boston multifamily is overbuilt or overheated? Think again. Due to superb fundamentals and a slowing development pipeline, Boston is now regarded as the number one metro area for multifamily investment. From 2019–2030, Boston will need to add 51,007 units to accommodate population growth, an average of 4,637 units per year. Recent development (2014­­­–2017) averaged 3,334 units per year. Population and job growth are expected to remain strong, fueling continued demand for multifamily housing and countering arguments that the Boston market is overbuilt. Many developers nationally are interested in the market. The construction pipeline for multifamily properties features organizations with headquarters as far away as Portland, Phoenix, and Dallas. The Houston-based Hanover Company, for example, has four properties totaling over a thousand units in the Boston development pipeline. Boston is a seller’s market as well, with deals typically attracting multiple bids, and it is easy to see why. For investors, Boston is a market with an average cap rate of roughly 4.5 percent. This is the same cap rate as Raleigh or Central Florida — two markets generally considered to be more volatile than Boston in the case of a recession. A Reliable Hub Becomes a Vibrant City “Historically, people …

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SAN DIEGO — The U.S. economy is likely to take a hit this year from the effects of geopolitical uncertainty and a global recession in the manufacturing sector, according to Michael Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). His forecast calls for U.S. GDP growth of 1.2 percent in 2020, down from 2.2 percent in 2019, and for job growth to dip from a monthly average of 175,000 last year to 150,000 this year. The unemployment rate, which currently stands at 3.6 percent and is near a 50-year low, is expected to reach 3.9 percent by year’s end. The wave of tumultuous events on the world stage have come fast and furious, the veteran economist observed. “Just recently you had the situation with the assassination of [Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani] and ballistic missiles being fired across the Middle East. Now we have got the coronavirus. We just concluded an impeachment trial. We have a presidential election. The trade wars of 2018 and 2019 are perhaps simmering down a little bit, but still a concern and still impacting a lot of decisions by private actors out there.” Such conflicts pose a threat to what has been a “remarkable” run …

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Mark Fogel, ACRES Capital

Mark Fogel, president and CEO of ACRES Capital, believes alternative lenders can maintain their flexibility and creativity where perhaps more traditional lenders cannot. He believes this will be important as the country continues its unprecedented upcycle, with a potential downturn threatening in the next 18 months or so. Finance Insight (FI): As an alternative lender focused on the middle market, can you tell me a little bit more about alternative lenders and your specific areas of expertise in comparison with traditional funding sources? Fogel: Traditional lenders offer an important role in most communities as a source of funding. However, they are restricted by regulations that impede their ability to take on riskier transactions and go higher on the capital stack. In this regard, alternative lenders can step in and provide capital and opportunity for those projects that are going through a redevelopment or are repurposed from their original business plan. FI: Do you lend against all property types and pursue projects in all geographical regions of the U.S.? Fogel: ACRES seeks out opportunities on an asset-by-asset basis. We do not necessarily follow market trends, but rather identify alternative situations where, from a debt perspective, our basis is low and the …

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HUD Section 232 Summary Statistics - Fiscal Year 2019

Despite enduring a federal government shutdown for 35 days that temporarily put a crimp in loan processing, the HUD/FHA Section 232 mortgage insurance program used to finance seniors housing properties rallied to post a solid performance in fiscal year 2019. The volume of loans closed during the 12-month period that started Oct. 1, 2018 and ended Sept. 30, 2019 totaled $3.7 billion. That’s up from $3.6 billion the prior fiscal year. The HUD/FHA Section 232 program — more commonly referred to as the HUD Lean program — helps finance nursing homes and assisted living facilities, as well as board and care facilities. The Lean process developed by HUD in 2008 is a methodology based on the Toyota model to increase efficiency by reducing waste. In short, the goal is to eliminate historical inefficiencies in the processing and approval of HUD loan applications. Dissecting the data Although the government shutdown that occurred in late December 2018 and January 2019 resulted in the program’s loan count dropping from 317 to 288 on a year-over-year basis, the average loan amount increased 14 percent during the same period to reach a record high of nearly $13 million.  “This was driven not only by some …

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Brad Savage Apprise Walker Dunlop

Technology and data are here to make things easier, faster and more accurate than ever before. However, some industries have lagged behind. This inspired Walker & Dunlop and its data science partner, GeoPhy, to fulfill a need in the market related to multifamily valuation. “We built Apprise because we saw a significant opportunity to improve a critical part of the underwriting and valuation process that has largely gone unchanged for decades,” says Brad Savage, Chief Product Officer for Apprise by Walker & Dunlop. “It is the natural and needed progression of any industry to harness the power of technology to make its practitioners more efficient and more informed. This is something we’re seeing in nearly all industries, except commercial real estate valuation…until now.” Apprise by Walker & Dunlop integrates data feeds and business processes that cover 80 percent of the steps in the traditional appraisal process. This can often result in appraisals in five days or less, compared to up to three weeks for traditional reports. The process is powered by GeoPhy’s Automated Valuation Model (AVM), which automates data feeds and can pre-populate relevant fields, preventing errors or duplicate entries that can happen with manual submissions. Selection bias is also reduced with the …

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