ATLANTA — After a quarter characterized by rising costs of living and mounting inflation, “recession” is the word on everybody’s lips. But Roger Tutterow, professor of economics at Kennesaw State University in Georgia, states that “it is not a foregone conclusion that we’re in a recession today or that we’ll get there in the next several months.” The official definition of a recession is not two consecutive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product (GDP). “Most of the time it works out that way,” Tutterow said, “but the technical definition of a recession is a period of diminishing activity in production, trade, employment and income.” Tutterow noted that looking at these four components of economic activity and comparing them to today indicates a softening economy and an elevated risk of recession, but he does not believe that the economy is necessarily contracting. He puts the risk of a recession in the next 12 months as roughly one chance in three. Tutterow’s assessment of the current state of the economy and his near-term outlook came during a keynote address Tutterow delivered at the ninth annual InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast, a networking and information conference hosted by France Media’s InterFace Conference …
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ATLANTA — Delays in the arrival of building materials — everything from windows and roof trusses to microchips for electrical panels — is one of the biggest hurdles slowing down new seniors housing developments, according to Kristin Kutac Ward, CEO of Solvere Living. Ward’s comments came during the ninth annual InterFace Seniors Housing conference. The event, which took place Aug. 17 at the Westin Buckhead in Atlanta, was hosted by France Media’s InterFace Conference Group and Seniors Housing Business and drew 324 attendees. Joining Ward on the development panel was Tod Petty, vice chairman with Lloyd Jones Senior Living; Matthew Griffin, senior vice president, eastern states, with Griffin Living; and Jim Vogel, president of Solvida Development Group. Rick Shamberg, managing director of Scarp Ridge Capital, served as the moderator. Despite the challenges in today’s building environment, there is pent-up demand and plenty of excitement regarding new seniors housing projects, said Ward. As baby boomers age, there will be a need for seniors housing care for about 50 million more people in the U.S., according to Shamberg. There’s ample opportunity for developers to fill that void in housing. According to Petty, the need for seniors housing units will be most pronounced …
Seniors Housing Operators See Rapid Rise in Online Leads and Universal Workers, Say InterFace Panelists
by John Nelson
By John Nelson ATLANTA — Property managers rely on various tools and methods to boost occupancy at their seniors housing facilities. One common avenue is for operators to have reliable online lead generators that connect their sales teams to potential residents and their families. Digital platforms in the seniors housing space like A Place for Mom and Grow Your Occupancy are churning out such leads for sales teams, and operators are saying that it’s a double-edged sword because they are coming in at a rapid clip. “We love the leads but we have one salesperson per community typically,” said Don Bishop, CEO of Tallahassee, Fla.-based SRI Management. “The response time is important. Some leads take a long time to prospect and work through the system. Having too many leads is a good challenge, but it is a challenge.” Bishop’s comments came during the operations panel at the ninth annual InterFace Seniors Housing Southeast, a networking and information conference hosted by France Media’s InterFace Conference Group and Seniors Housing Business. The event was held Wednesday, Aug. 17 at the Westin Buckhead hotel in Atlanta. Pilar Carvajal, founder and CEO of Innovation Senior Living, said that her firm has been discussing creative …
Borrowers, Lenders Reach an ‘Inflection Point’ in the Wake of Rising Inflation and Interest Rates
by John Nelson
By John Nelson The period between mid-June and mid-July has become a pivotal moment in the capital markets world as commercial real estate borrowers and lenders navigate inflation levels and interest rates not seen in decades. Scott Cook, commercial real estate market manager with TD Bank’s Charlotte office, says that borrowers and lenders are reshaping the market on the fly, and it’s too early to tell if the elevated capital costs are going to drastically suppress borrower demand. “We’re at an inflection point: the natural, healthy tension between borrowers and lenders where borrowers want more but lenders want to give less,” says Cook. “I don’t know that we’ve seen the full effect yet. Generally speaking, borrowers are still looking for business as usual. They’re aware of the rate hikes but still believe in the product, and certainly there’s overwhelming demand. We’re redefining it as we speak, it’s too early to call.” Cook says that the first true “wake up” call was when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) relayed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the standard inflation measurements that tracks price changes for goods and services, had increased 8.6 percent in May, which is the highest …
One Year Later: Surfside Collapse Inspires Newly Passed Florida Legislation Addressing Structural Integrity
by John Nelson
By Jim Prichard of Ball Janik LLP The 13-story, L-shaped Champlain Towers decorated the Surfside coastline. In the early morning of June 24, 2021, the pool deck suffered a partial collapse, triggering more destruction in the structure’s central section and eastern wing. In less than 30 seconds, approximately half of the 136 units in the building were destroyed, leaving 98 residents dead and establishing a horrific legacy as one of the deadliest structural engineering failures in U.S. history. In the wake of the tragedy, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava ordered an immediate audit of all high-rise buildings that were more than 40 years old and five stories tall constructed by the developer. The attention to South Florida development prompted a review of hundreds of older buildings. There was also an onslaught of editorial investigations, including features by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald. Florida International University conducted its satellite analysis of the site as well. All investigations, first-hand experiences, and post-collapse engineering findings reported that there had been concerns about the structural integrity of the building and that the collapse was based on faulty construction and deterioration. As a law firm, our biggest …
Developers Turn to CPACE Financing to Achieve Better Returns Amid Rising Costs Environment
by John Nelson
By Jason Schwartzberg, President of MD Energy Advisors The real estate development industry has been negatively impacted by a continued series of hardships over the past 24 months, including rapidly escalating construction costs, breakdowns in the supply chain, inflation, labor shortages, rent freezes and, most recently, rising interest rates. Many projects are still managing to receive financing and get underway, but the current environment presents significant challenges for owners and investors to place a project under contract, achieve entitlement, obtain construction financing and then build, deliver and stabilize the development. For a project to move from concept to completion, it must first meet the internal rate of return (IRR) or hurdle rate, also known as the “minimum acceptable rate of return” (MARR). Developers and investors maintain various thresholds for the definition of an acceptable IRR, but the return of the project must ultimately be commensurate with the risk undertaken to complete it. Variables associated with construction and market risks also factor into the equation. There are several methods to increase a project’s return in order to reach a desired hurdle rate, some of which are outside of the developer’s direct control. Major inputs that significantly impact returns include the cost …
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Speed to Market is ‘Almost the Only Priority’ for Multifamily Developers Looking to Avoid Cost Risks, Say InterFace Panelists
by John Nelson
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Multifamily developers are pushing their chips in and aggressively looking for new development deals, especially for sites in and around high-growth markets in the Southeast. Michael Tubridy, senior managing director of Crescent Communities, said his firm isn’t leaving anything to chance and is looking to move quickly on development opportunities. “We’re trying to get as many units on the ground today as possible, because tomorrow will be more expensive,” said Tubridy. “I like the chances of today’s cost environment a lot better than I like the unknown of where we’ll be a year from now or two years from now. Putting a premium on speed to market is something that we are much more focused on; it’s almost the only priority right now.” Tubridy’s comments came during the development panel at InterFace Carolinas Multifamily 2022. The half-day event was held on April 14 at the Hilton Uptown Charlotte hotel and attracted more than 260 attendees from all facets of the multifamily industry in North Carolina and South Carolina. Michael Saclarides, director of Cushman & Wakefield’s Multifamily Advisory Group, moderated the discussion. Crescent Communities is far from the only multifamily developer pursuing ground-up construction opportunities in earnest. In …
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Multifamily Operators Battle Fraud, Labor Shortages on the Front Lines, Say InterFace Panelists
by John Nelson
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Property managers are navigating a minefield of issues in today’s apartment market. Analyzing renter applications for fraud, collecting overdue rent and turning over units from freeloading tenants are all in a day’s work for savvy apartment operators. Amanda Kitts, senior vice president of property management at Northwood Ravin, a multifamily owner and operator based in North Carolina, said that part of the role of an operations professional today entails poring over documents like check stubs, IDs and employment records to make sure the prospective resident is creditworthy. She said that fraud is more prevalent in some markets than others, so it’s imperative that property managers are adequately trained. “Charlotte still is a very big market for fraud, but Durham not so much. Chapel Hill is squeaky clean; nobody does anything wrong in Chapel Hill,” joked Kitts. “We have these applications and check stubs, and maybe one could be off, and you have to investigate and Google. We’re almost mini-FBI investigators.” Kitts’ comments came during the leasing and operations panel at France Media’s InterFace Carolinas Multifamily, which took place April 14 at the Hilton Uptown Charlotte. The networking and information conference drew more than 260 attendees from all facets …
Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Powers Real Estate Activity Along I-85 Industrial Corridor, Say InterFace Panelists
by John Nelson
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The Southeast has long been home to automotive giants such as Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and Mercedes-Benz, as well as their large network of suppliers. In 2021, BMW led the nation in automotive exports by value, the eighth consecutive year the German automaker held that distinction. BMW produced and exported $10.1 billion worth of cars and SUVs from its mega campus in Spartanburg, S.C., last year, and the company recently announced two new facilities — one on its campus and the other across Interstate 85 — that will total $300 million in investment. Similarly, Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Alabama, the regional headquarters and only U.S. plant for the South Korean auto giant, announced last week that it planned to invest $300 million to expand and improve its Montgomery plant. The initiative will create 200 jobs and accommodate the manufacturing of the hybrid Santa Fe vehicle line and launch of the first Electrified Genesis GV70 SUV. Hyundai Motor Group said it aims to sell 1.87 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) annually by 2030 in order to secure a 7 percent global market share of BEVs sold. The automaker announced on April 12 that it plans to invest $7.4 billion in …
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I-85 Corridor Markets See Explosion of Industrial Development, But InterFace Panelists Wonder if Housing Will Follow
by John Nelson
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — During the closing panel at France Media’s InterFace I-85 Industrial Corridor conference, brokers from the major markets along the 666-mile interstate gave updates about developments and opportunities in their territories. Brockton Hall, vice president of Colliers’ Upstate South Carolina office, said that the Greenville-Spartanburg industrial market in South Carolina had 16 million square feet of industrial space under construction, which represents an inventory growth of approximately 7.4 percent. Graham Stoneburner, senior vice president of Cushman & Wakefield, said that the Richmond, Va., market currently had 11 million square feet underway, which represents an inventory growth of 11 percent. Similarly Robbie Perkins, shareholder and market president at NAI Piedmont Triad, said North Carolina’s Triad region had 8.7 million square feet in the development pipeline, a nearly 11 percent growth rate compared to the market’s 80 million-square-foot inventory. During nearly every panel throughout the conference, which was held on Wednesday, April 13 at the Hilton Uptown Charlotte, brokers, investors and developers described the industrial growth along the I-85 Industrial Corridor as “unprecedented.” “There’s a real lack of supply at the moment, but we have a lot coming,” said John Montgomery, managing director of Colliers’ Upstate South Carolina office, during …