Would-be commercial real estate investors and sellers for the last several months have been waiting for a sign that the Federal Reserve has tamed inflation, therefore giving the central bank reason to officially end its tightening program. October’s better-than-expected consumer price index increase of 3.2 percent — versus the 3.3 percent consensus — may have delivered that signal. The futures markets immediately reduced the probability of a Fed interest rate hike in December to zero, with many capital markets analysts suggesting that it would begin to cut rates midway through 2024. But just an end to rate hikes could fuel investment sales activity, says Jeff Rinkov, CEO of Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services. “Once investors see some positive sentiment from the Fed, I think they’ll start to get interested in deploying what we believe is an enormous amount of capital that has been waiting on the sidelines,” he explains. “I also think that’s when investors will be met by more accommodating sellers. At the moment, price discovery continues to be very challenging and is driving a sluggish transaction environment.” Crashing Sales Indeed, investment sales volume through three quarters of 2023 totaled $276.3 billion, a year-over-year decline of 55 …
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