When the current economic expansion passed the 10-year mark on July 1, it became the longest growth cycle in U.S. history. Still, mixed messages continue to plague the economic outlook. Arguments for optimism include the rising trajectory of GDP growth, which hit a three-year high of 2.9 percent for all of 2018 and was followed by a 3.1 percent reading in the first quarter of 2019. Unemployment is at a 50-year low, and interest rates remain near historical lows. On June 19, the 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell below 2 percent for the first time since 2016 before closing that same day at 2.03 percent. That figure was down about 85 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Such inexpensive capital tends to fuel investment in residential and commercial real estate, driving up property values. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it wants to maintain low rates due to mixed signals in the global economy. Bearish signals include the possibility of an extended tariff war with China that could lead to a hike in consumer prices, disappointing job growth of 75,000 in May, stock market volatility and a flat yield curve creeping toward inversion. The two-year Treasury yield stood at …
