Lument

By Daniel J. Hogan The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been felt more severely in Southern California than in most areas of the country. The Southland’s high concentration of employment in the tourism and entertainment sectors made it especially vulnerable to the effects of social distancing protocols and the reluctance of many to board commercial aircraft. Not only were job losses particularly acute in the initial months of the pandemic — the subsequent recovery has been lethargic. The rate of unemployment for July in each of the four large Southern California metropolitan markets remained materially above the national average, and in the case of Los Angeles County (18.2 percent) was the highest of any metropolitan area west of the Hudson River save for Yuma and El Centro. As it always has, Southern California will recover and is likely to do so in even more spectacular fashion than before. In the interim, how can multifamily investors position themselves to prosper? San Diego is the ideal market to scrutinize possible changes in renter behavior during the pandemic and consider their potential investment implications. Indeed, a deep dive into this market may provide clues to some of the great mysteries of …

Reducing the Los Angeles economy to the entertainment industry would be a serious mistake. In fact, the L.A. labor market is highly diversified with world-class healthcare, professional services, biotech and technology clusters providing co-sector leadership — no one-trick pony is this. Nonetheless, the entertainment industry is the single element that separates this metro economy from all others, and its tentacles are long. In its absence, the metro’s financial and professional services, tourism and digital media sectors might seem almost ordinary. Hollywood content production has been curtailed dramatically by social distancing demands. Active filming in the second quarter plummeted 98 percent from the year before, according to nonprofit industry group FilmLA. This has a devastating effect on thousands of employees on industry payrolls and many times more freelancers, sole proprietors and contract employees that make up the bulk of the film and TV industry’s creative workers. Consequently, the L.A. labor market absorbed among the hardest blows dealt by COVID-19. Although second quarter L.A. County payroll employment declined only 12.4 percent year on year, in line with outcomes observed in the Bay Area and San Diego, total employment — a government statistic that includes the self-employed and gig economy workers — plunged …

Some stories are just too good not to be true. This may explain in part the outpouring of reports regarding population outflows from the San Francisco Bay Area. Multiple mid-August articles in national newspapers took up the ongoing Silicon Valley exodus. These articles make a convincing case that the COVID-19 pandemic and increased opportunities to work remotely — particularly in the high-tech industry — are prompting many Bay Area residents to consider relocating to more affordable areas, even if remote work causes their incomes to decline. The evidence supporting the theory is by no means entirely anecdotal. The number of owners listing homes for sale has increased significantly, the pace of home price appreciation has decelerated materially (less than 5 percent in May) and apartment rents and occupancy have eroded since winter. It is hard to deny that Peak Northern California is fading in the rearview mirror. This should be no surprise. The Bay Area is not only the most expensive real estate market in the country, it also is one of the most congested. Its many virtues come with a steep price tag, not only in terms of cost of living but also in aspects lumped in the quality …

In economics, the sensitivity of aggregate demand for a product or service to changes in price is defined as its “elasticity.” The elasticity of demand for nonessential goods or goods with a number of ready substitutes is high. Even a small increase in price will produce a large decrease in demand. Conversely, a relatively large price change in the cost of an essential or prized luxury good for which few substitutes exist may have little effect on demand for it. San Francisco real estate is a highly inelastic good. The Bay Area’s potent combination of natural beauty, sublime climate and unique culture make it one of the most coveted destinations in the world. By the same token, its compact size, high population density, seismic risks and antipathy to development constrain supply. For all practical purposes, housing prices are limited by the income that residents can expect to earn rather than the normal interplay of producers and consumers. The innovation and wealth creation generated by the high tech industry added a complex new variable to the equation. More wealth was created during the last 10 years in the 40 miles that lie between the Golden Gate and San Jose than in …