Market Reports

— By Kyle Seeger, Vice President, JLL — Like office markets across the U.S., Phoenix continues to navigate its post-pandemic “normal.” But with red-hot population growth, a comparatively low cost of doing business, a dynamic office inventory and a stellar quality of life, it also remains a prime contender for new office locations, relocations and expansions. Metro Phoenix’s overall office vacancy rate had ticked up slightly to 25.6 percent at the close of 2023. Average annual rent growth had decelerated moderately to 0.8 percent year over year, but remained positive. The overall direct asking rent had stabilized at just over $29 per square foot. Although negative absorption remained markedly high at more than 3.5 million square feet through 2023, there was less quarterly loss in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Amid all of this, Phoenix’s cost and demographic advantages — along with its ample inventory — pushed leasing momentum forward. In some cases, it even created positive net absorption, such as in prime office corridors and in newer, highly amenitized Class A projects.  The Grove, a 180,000-square-foot, Class AA office building in the Camelback Corridor, is a prime example of this. Within 16 months of its mid-2021 …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail
Livano-Deer-Valley-Apts-Phoenix-AZ

— By John Kobierowski, President/CEO, ABI Multifamily — Phoenix has experienced a surge in population due to its favorable climate, affordable cost of living and thriving job market. Since 2012, Phoenix has seen an average of 1.6 percent in population growth per year versus an annual U.S. average of 0.6 percent.  The city’s allure is particularly strong among young professionals drawn to its continued job growth and retirees seeking sunny skies.  This rising demand has translated into increased rental rates and occupancy levels over time, making the Phoenix market highly appealing to investors seeking stable and profitable ventures  To meet the rising demand for multifamily housing, developers have ramped up construction activities in Phoenix. There are 40,459 new construction projects planned for 50-plus-unit construction. The market has also witnessed an escalation in the number of new projects — 28,841, according to Yardi). These include luxury apartments, mixed-use developments and affordable housing options. These projects not only cater to professionals, but target Millennials and members of Generation Z, who are increasingly gravitating toward rental properties. However, ABI Multifamily outlook sees a substantial drop-off in completions starting at the end of 2024 through 2025 as a result of increased pricing in materials, …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail

— By Anthony Lydon, Executive Managing Director, JLL — At $403 billion in annual gross domestic product, Arizona is now the nation’s 18th largest GDP economy, recently passing Minnesota and Indiana. With its expected growth over the next 24 months, the state is on track to become the nation’s 16th largest GDP economy, surpassing Tennessee and Maryland.  Like a shortlist of other fortunate U.S. markets, Arizona can credit a portion of this growth to its thriving logistics sector. The potential that industrial real estate offers for nearshoring — that commanding force with the power to rapidly diversify and expand a local economy. In Arizona alone, every $1 spent in the logistics industry has a $2 to $2.50 “multiplier effect” in the categories of earnings, revenue and jobs. The ability to capture that growth has been transformed in recent years by the CHIPS Act. This has provided, among other things, a 25 percent tax credit for investing in facilities that manufacture semiconductors or related manufacturing equipment. The Inflation Reduction Act has also provided more than $270 million in tax credits for clean energy projects involving solar, wind, hydrogen, carbon sequestration and EV charging. These programs played a role in attracting TSMC, …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail
Canal-Crossing-Phoenix-AZ

— By Rob Martensen, Vice Chair, Colliers International — What’s hot in Phoenix’s industrial market? This is a question we get asked a lot from developers and property owners looking to enter our region.  The topic of conversation is mostly centered around the amount of space under construction in the Phoenix MSA and what parts of town are seeing the most activity.  In the past, we had submarkets that would be more or less attractive, and we would steer clients in that direction. Today, however, the entire Phoenix metropolitan area is in play for tenants and owners. Greater Phoenix has been fortunate to land several “whales,” large corporations that bring multiple suppliers with them.  Naturally, the one most talked about is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) in North Phoenix.  TSMC took down nearly 1,600 acres of land to build a $12 billion chip making factory.  The company has since announced it will immediately commence construction on Phase II of the project. Intel is another chip manufacturer that has had a presence in nearby Chandler, but is now under construction on a $20 billion expansion. Both of these undertakings will continue to feed companies that move to Phoenix and support not …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail

DIV Industrial has seen the demand, and is delivering for Fortune 100 tenants that need to be accommodated in the Phoenix market. The Irvine, Calif.-based investor and developer just closed on 47 acres in Goodyear that will soon serve as the home of Sarival Business Park, a 847,988-square-foot, Class A industrial complex. At completion, the modern, LEED-certified business park will include five free-standing buildings ranging from 135,000 square feet to 235,000 square feet. This transaction marks DIV’s first foray into the Phoenix market. Nicholas Ilagan, the firm’s co-founder and managing partner, notes there were many attributes that attracted him to this region.  “The Phoenix MSA continues to be one of the fastest-growing metros in the country,” he says. “The region is propelled by its established infrastructure, business-friendly approach, educated workforce, and accessibility to Southern California’s port markets and the Western U.S. population. Phoenix is attracting large corporations and Fortune 500 companies that are relocating or setting up new, efficient operations, such as data centers, distribution facilities and manufacturing operations.” This includes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which Ilagan notes has had a “huge boost to the local economy and stimulated employment growth.” Goodyear has also drawn in larger regional and national …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail
Laveen-Commons-Phoenix-AZ

— By Dave Cheatham, President, Velocity Retail Group and X Team Retail Advisors — Phoenix’s retail market has rebounded post-pandemic and is now considered a winning bet, along with industrial and multifamily. The market has benefitted from surging consumer demand, population expansion and a robust technology industry, largely fueled by accelerated growth in the chip manufacturing sector. Strong and positive economic performance has established a foundation on which retailers have built success across the Valley of the Sun. There are challenges, to be sure, which range from interest rate hikes and rising inflation to chaos in the capital markets and reduced investment transaction volume, in addition to increased construction costs. New construction has been limited, as evidenced by the fact that no Target, Lowe’s or Home Depot stores have been built in the Valley since the recession. That appears to be changing as plans for big box stores that had been idle for a decade are shifting to expansion mode once more. Second-generation space is in high demand due to the higher costs of building new, standalone stores. Market indicators are trending upward for the retail sector. Vacancies are at a record low, demand remains high and rents are continuing …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail
320-W-Bell-Rd-Phoenix-AZ

— By Brian Polachek, Senior Vice President, SRS Real Estate Partners — The holiday season is upon us, and as 2023 draws to a close the real estate community turns its focus towards the future, particularly to what 2024 holds. Let’s look at recent developments and future expectations of the Phoenix retail market, a sector that has shown remarkable growth and resilience. Phoenix’s retail landscape has experienced a significant growth period, primarily due to a combination of factors including substantial population increases, strong consumer spending, minimal store closures and limited new retail space has been built. This surge in growth is largely attributed to Phoenix’s rising appeal as a place to live as well as a business-friendly environment. The influx of new residents and businesses has created a robust consumer base, driving up spending and providing a diverse market for retailers. Remarkably, the Valley has seen positive absorption for nine consecutive quarters, totaling 4.2 million square feet in the past year alone. As a result, Phoenix has become one of the leading U.S. markets in retail demand, bringing vacancy rates down to a record low of 4.5 percent, according to CoStar. This ongoing demand signifies not only the market’s current …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail
Verrado-Marketplace-Buckeye-AZ

Ryan Desmond, partner, Western Retail Advisors in Phoenix Metro Phoenix’s population grew faster than any other major U.S. city between 2010 and 2020. By 2021, the Valley’s 1.48 percent population growth continued to far exceed the country’s .01 percent growth — the slowest annual growth rate in our nation’s history. For a community that has historically been criticized as being over-retailed on a per-capita basis, this has injected tremendous strength into the local retail market. Today, Phoenix ranks as a hotspot among U.S. cities for retail absorption. According to CoStar, Phoenix had absorbed 4.1 million square feet of retail space year over year — the strongest absorption since the start of the Great Recession — by the start of the second quarter in 2023. This reduced the market’s overall vacancy rate to 5 percent. This is impressive, but it doesn’t reflect the increased gap between demand for Class A product and all other retail classes. Much like the flight to quality happening in the office sector, tenants looking for retail space in metro Phoenix want excellence: high-traffic locations in a growth submarket with compelling demographics. As a result, we have seen more metro Phoenix Class A retail properties reach full …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail

— By Rob Martensen, Senior Executive Vice President, Colliers International — There are a lot of questions being asked about the Phoenix industrial market as we turn the calendar to 2023. Having been an industrial broker in this market for 25 years, I have seen many ups and downs, which are historically driven by the residential construction market. Phoenix used to be a one-industry town…and that industry was growth. Sure, we’ve had large companies like Motorola, Avnet and Intel, but the industrial market has been mostly driven by people moving to Arizona and buying houses and household goods.   Phoenix has transformed in the past five years into a thriving city that now supports many industries. The largest is advanced manufacturing. This includes semiconductors, battery manufacturing, electric vehicle manufacturing and all supporting businesses. Intel is in the process of a $20 billion expansion to their existing facility, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is under construction on a $12 billion chip making factory. TSMC recently announced it’s going to immediately start on Phase II of this factory, which will be another $28 billion spent in Phoenix. It is estimated that 160 new companies have moved to Phoenix to support these two new …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail

— By Andrew Cheney, Principal, Lee & Associates — The metro Phoenix office market continues a slow recovery as it battles the nation’s highest rates of both sublease growth and inflation. Starting off the fourth quarter at only 532,000 square feet (year-to-date), net absorption in Greater Phoenix remained well off the 20-year average mark of 1.6 million square feet. Direct office vacancy stands at a seemingly high figure of 17.6 percent. However, this is in line with the 20-year average of 18 percent.  Currently, there are six key trends impacting Phoenix’s office market. Small tenants are back in the office.  I imagine most brokers will report that the highest concentration of active, touring prospects are in the market for less than 10,000 square feet.  These company sizes want to be in the office in metro Phoenix, and not just a few days a week. High-quality spec suites rule.  Landlords recognize that smaller tenants are driving leasing activity — and that these small tenants will not wait for a build-out. Instead of holding one or two spec suites in inventory at any one time, landlords are building out large batches of five to seven spec suites at a time. And they’re spending money to build …

FacebookTwitterLinkedinEmail
Newer Posts