By Pat Harlan, Managing Director, JLL Labor, geography, population growth and a steady stream of cost-effective, “speed to market” solutions make Phoenix one of the most dynamic industrial markets in the country. Based on existing fundamentals, 2022 is on track to be another record year. As of third-quarter 2021, Phoenix had landed just under 16 million square feet of net leasing year-to-date. Absorption had improved by more than 28.5 percent in the same 12-month period, to total 8.5 million square feet. Nearly 94 percent of that activity was generated from ecommerce and food and beverage users. Vacancy had also dipped to pre-pandemic levels, falling by 100 basis points year-over-year to just 6.8 percent as of the end of the third quarter of 2021. Construction continues to ramp up, trying to meet a seemingly unending stream of demand. As of the end of the third quarter, there was 16.6 million square feet of metro Phoenix industrial space under development. The West Valley accounts for about 11.3 million square feet of this activity. The Southeast Valley represents an additional 3.4 million square feet. Two of the largest buildings underway in the market right now are the Cubes Glendale, totaling 1.2 million square feet, and Building …
Market Reports
By Phil Breidenbach, Senior Executive Vice President, Colliers Companies are coming back to the office in Phoenix. Businesses are envisioning the return of their workforce as many look for new space or reconfigure their existing facilities. Building owners feel the momentum. We have reason to be optimistic — the future of the office and how we use the workplace is exciting! Getting there, however, will be turbulent. Your patience may be tested. Colliers’ fourth-quarter office report shows vacancies stabilizing market wide, positive absorption occurring in key submarkets and rents increasing marginally. Positive fourth-quarter absorption was led by leasing in new Class A+ buildings like 100 S. Mill. This Hines/Cousins project is 80 percent leased by institutional, “household name” tenants at record rents several months prior to completion. Vacancy rates may, however, continue to fluctuate as certain downsizing continues. Some institutional users are adopting work from home for much of their workforce, convinced this strategy will help with employee retention and cost reduction without impacting productivity — assumptions yet to be proven. This strategy has corporate America subleasing space, allowing leases to expire and vacating spaces, which is stagnating recovery. ‘Short Term’ — The Renewal Mantra for 2022 We speak with office occupiers regularly about back-to-work strategies. …
By Matt Pesch, Vice Chairman, CBRE The multifamily market in Phoenix experienced a record-setting year in 2021. Market vacancy dropped below 3 percent for the first time, the region led all U.S. metros in year-over-year rent growth for every quarter and total multifamily investment sales volume topped $12 billion. This was nearly double the volume from 2019 and a 125 percent jump from 2020. These metrics are driven by Phoenix’s primary economic drivers of nation-leading population and job growth. As of October, Phoenix was one of only four U.S. metros to recover 100 percent of the jobs the region lost during the pandemic. This was driven by the stable recovery of long-established industries and growing sectors that are diversifying the region’s employment base. Case in point: Phoenix is home to one of the fastest-growing biotech sectors in the U.S. with the life sciences workforce expanding by 8.5 percent from 2019 to 2020, according to CBRE’s latest research. Likewise, large corporate office users continue to relocate or expand in Phoenix at an unprecedented rate, further driving the region’s robust employment recovery. The area’s strong employment recovery and population growth are the fuel driving Phoenix’s multifamily sector. The gains in the apartment …
By Laurel Lewis, Senior Vice President, NAI Horizon The office market is in uncharted territory, like going “Down the Great Unknown.” When John Wesley Powell navigated through the Grand Canyon, he did not know what lay ahead. Perhaps if he did, he might have chosen to leave it uncharted. Yet here we are in the midst of the proverbial river, wondering what lies ahead. The advent of a pandemic is changing minds about how and where we work. The work-from-home model may have started a decade ago, but the pandemic and new technology have exacerbated the trend. How will this affect the office market and, more specifically, the office market in Phoenix? The long-term effects remain to be seen, but we know Phoenix continues to attract new residents and new businesses. The Central Business District, for instance, is experiencing renewed interest. This is enhanced by the City of Phoenix’s efforts to offer a pedestrian-friendly environment, more entertainment and access to the light rail. The investment is paying off. Companies in bioscience, education, technology and financial services are taking an interest in the area’s vibrancy. To top it off, the second quarter came to a close with the Phoenix Suns making …
By Matt Harper, Senior Vice President of Retail, NAI Horizon Arizona relies heavily on a robust tourism industry. When COVID-19 hit, it was a massive blow to the hospitality and retail sectors. Coming out of the pandemic, however, the Metro Phoenix retail sector has shown great resiliency, especially mom and pops. Phoenix ended the fourth quarter of 2020 with a positive net absorption of 124,330 square feet of retail space. With negative net absorption in the second and third quarters of 2020 – the devastating months of the pandemic – Phoenix ended the year at negative 373,715 square feet. This was compared to an overall positive net absorption of more than 1.1 million square feet in 2019. Phoenix vacancy rose slightly in the second quarter of 2021 from the previous quarter, coming in at 7.7 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively. Net absorption for the second quarter was a negative 63,558 square feet, down from a strong first-quarter 2021 of 466,714 square feet. The average triple-net rental rate rose slightly to $15.81 per square foot. COVID-19 travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders attributed to the paltry second- and third-quarter 2020 numbers. Then those orders were lifted by Gov. Ducey, and the sun came …
By Drew Ricciardi, Research Manager, ABI Multifamily Research Manager Following a chaotic year that left investors on the sidelines, the Phoenix market proved resilient. In fact, it ended up witnessing one of the most significant rebounds nationally. The Phoenix multifamily market exploded with a record start for 2021 and is now considered one of the top multifamily markets in the country. Phoenix continues to see robust population increases due to job growth, quality of life, industry diversity and affordability. According to a Redfin study, the Phoenix metro market had the highest population net inflow in 2020 of all U.S. metros. Phoenix benefited from the work-from-home phenomenon due to COVID-19, which resulted in high-paid workers fleeing high-priced, high-density markets for more affordable markets offering more spacious living options. Not only are people migrating to Phoenix, but the area is becoming a prime spot for company headquarters and advanced facilities. The metro area’s educated workforce, strong talent pool, business-friendly tax environment, and affordability are all key factors. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. plans to invest around $35 billion in new Phoenix facilities. This is the most substantial direct foreign investment in Arizona to date. The investment will have significant ripple effects on the …
By Rob Martensen, Executive Vice President, Colliers As a racing driver, it is important that my vehicles fire on all cylinders to run their best. In the Phoenix metro area, the engine cylinders of the industrial market are the different industries, as well as the geographic locations around the Valley where these industries conduct business. First, let’s look at advanced manufacturing. Intel, which already has a large presence in the Southeast Valley, just announced a $20 billion expansion of its Price Road facility. This will create hundreds of construction jobs and demand for these contractors to find space, not to mention all the equipment suppliers, etc., that will require space for the long-term. With the huge demand for semiconductors and the supply of land and labor, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has chosen Phoenix to build its next fabrication plant. TSMC will spend $12 billion to build the new factory, which is already under construction in North Phoenix. This will create a huge demand for industrial space in the Deer Valley submarket to support TSMC. Other manufacturing companies like Apel Extrusions, MLILY and Ball Container have either recently completed projects or are under construction on new manufacturing facilities. Food and beverage …
By Alexandra Loye, Senior Vice President, Healthcare & Life Sciences Services, Colliers Despite global and domestic market challenges from the pandemic, Phoenix continues to shine amongst its competitive Western cities. With Maricopa County being the fastest-growing county in the U.S., Phoenix offers employers a diverse, educated workforce, business-friendly environment and affordable housing options. Arizona’s economy is booming and experiencing record revenue growth, as well as personal income growth. From 2019 to 2020, Arizona led the nation (tied with Montana) in the category of highest personal income growth with a 7.1 percent increase. The state is also projected to add 325,000 jobs in the next 12 months. Phoenix’s life sciences industry has gained significant momentum during the past 12 months, with no slowdown in sight. The Phoenix Biomedical Campus (PBC) in downtown Phoenix is ground zero for life sciences development and tenant activity. The 30-acre campus is currently occupied by Arizona State University, the University of Arizona, Northern Arizona University, Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen), OncoMyx Therapeutics, Calviri, Vidium Animal Health, and Exact Sciences, which recently acquired Paradigm Diagnostics and Ashion Analytics. The PBC is the ideal environment when it comes to collaboration and innovation for life sciences tenants. The 227,000-square-foot, …
By Peter Batschelet, Principal, Lee & Associates In a year of unknowns, hypotheticals and uncertainties, the Phoenix metropolitan area and Maricopa County were the complete opposite. In fact, 2020 was a record-setting year in this region’s industrial market for several reasons. For starters, there was nearly 14 million square feet of new construction delivered. This is twice as high as any year in the past decade and roughly equivalent to the deliveries from the past two years. In addition, Phoenix set record absorption numbers to the tune of, ironically, 14 million square feet. Meanwhile, vacancy rates have decreased to roughly 7.7 percent and rents continue to see moderate growth. There does not appear to be an end in sight to the impressive growth. There is an additional 15 million square feet currently under construction. This space is both speculative development and build-to-suit opportunities from household names like Merit Partners, Prologis, Trammell Crow Majestic Realty and others. Ecommerce sales represent roughly 15 percent of the national retail industry, which means there is plenty of capacity for additional investment and capital into the Greater Phoenix area based on our population and anticipated growth. There remains plenty of upside for the bulk …
By Brian Tranetzki, Principal, Taylor Street Advisors Multifamily is staying strong despite COVID-19. That’s because this product type was coming off an extremely hot market at the end of 2019 and early 2020 before the pandemic hit. The Phoenix metro area remains one of the few markets nationally with positive rent growth due to the steady population increase. Now, just months away from 2021, the market is faced with many unknown factors, such as unemployment, election outcomes, continued COVID uncertainty and the risk of eliminating 1031 exchanges. In turn, buyer sentiment also remains intense with a flurry of activity on those very exchanges. Development is still robust in the valley, with significant increases in downtown Phoenix, downtown Tempe and Chandler/Gilbert. There are currently more than 15,000 units under construction in the region. The building sizes are getting larger, while individual units are getting smaller. Developers are focused on building Class A properties with an emphasis on higher-end amenities, pool areas and concierge services. The class type determines whether it’s a landlord or tenant market. Tenants have several options in the Class A rental space, particularly as new units are delivered, which makes this a tenant-friendly environment. Class A vacancy is …