Before raising the curtain on 2015, it is important to understand how the stage has been set. The Phoenix industrial sector continues to build for changes in the market. Local and national developers delivered 6.3 million square feet of speculative industrial warehousing in the market last year, primarily due to big box projects. While most of these projects were in the Southwest Phoenix submarket, we have seen construction in the Sky Harbor and Southeast Valley submarkets as well. The national economy continues to improve slowly, and while activity levels during the numerous projects have been steady, closed deals for large blocks of space continue to be elusive. Although net absorption was positive by the end of last year, lease transaction volumes were mostly in the 50,000 to 200,000 square feet range. This prompted developers to modify their efforts by offering to divide their big boxes to accommodate partial building tenants, where prior expectations were geared toward single-tenant, full-building occupancy. There were still several big box projects under construction by the end of last year. This includes projects by Wentworth Properties, Trammel Crow/Clarion Partners, Conor Commercial, Hillwood and several other projects in shovel-ready position. Those ready to break ground include Prologis, …
Market Reports
The Phoenix retail market ended 2014 on a promising note, with vacancy rates dipping below 10 percent for the first time since the Great Recession ended. It also experienced net absorption of more than 2 million square feet of retail space. Expectations for 2015 are positive, and continued improvement is anticipated, albeit slower than we might have hoped. While many segments of the market have improved, lackluster job growth and housing sales have slowed the recovery. However, both areas show signs of improvement for the coming year. Forecasts estimate Phoenix will add about 70,000 jobs in 2015, bringing the total number close to the pre-recession total. The demand for single-family housing should improve with the continuance of low interest rates, job growth and investor interest. The market is finally showing signs it is on the upward path to recovery. Leasing activity for Class A space remains strong, while rental rates are on the rise. We have seen marked improvement in some areas like Scottsdale where rates for Class A space in centers like The Marketplace at Lincoln & Scottsdale and Hilton Village are approaching or surpassing $40 per square foot, and where vacancy rates are below 6 percent. In contrast, …
The Phoenix office market ended the third quarter in a very strong position. Increasing momentum in the sector should continue into 2015. Healthier economic conditions, including a growing GDP and higher employment, are translating into increased market activity and confidence. The biggest take-away from Phoenix’s rebounding office sector is new office development, with several high-profile construction projects underway in the East Valley. Tower cranes dot the horizon along Tempe Town Lake in downtown Tempe. The largest project, State Farm’s Marina Heights, is under construction on its first phase, which includes two mid-rises totaling more than 1 million square feet. Additional phases will bring the project to more than 2 million square feet, making it the largest office project in Arizona. Hayden Ferry Lakeside III is under construction with a 10-story, 250,000-square-foot building on the lake. This is the third and final phase of this office project. Arizona State University has also jumped into the mix by announcing a huge 330-acre development on the south side of Tempe Town Lake. It is expected to incorporate athletic, commercial and residential projects at full build-out that will be utilized as a funding source for ASU Athletics. USA Place, a $400-million-plus development in downtown, …
The Phoenix industrial market is definitely following national trends in terms of recovery. Since 2010, U.S. industrial markets have seen rising demand trends with supply additions that have not kept pace. Demand for newer, Class A industrial space, as well as for use-specific space, is outpacing supply and encouraging more build-to-suit and speculative development activity across markets. Developers have shown discipline so far, however, as the amount of new supply added to the market since 2010 is well below the levels seen during previous expansionary periods. These trends are manifesting themselves in a variety of ways in Metro Phoenix. First, it’s clear that demand is definitely up. The industrial market has seen significant activity over the past several quarters. Leases for spaces between 20,000 and 200,000 square feet have totaled more than 10.5 million square feet since January 2013. Deals of this size have totaled more than 1.4 million square feet of absorption this year alone. This is important to note because the overall health of the Metro Phoenix industrial market has historically been supported by midsized users. This size range shows no signs of slowing as we round out 2014 and head into 2015. In fact, we know of …
While the industrial recovery in the Phoenix area has been slow, market indicators show signs of steady improvement. Average rental rates for the Phoenix metro industrial market have remained consistent, hovering around $0.52 per square foot for the past year. In the Southwest Valley, however, which constitutes almost one-third of the entire valley’s industrial space, average rental rates are much lower at $0.36 per square foot. Lease rates at Sky Harbor Airport are averaging about $0.59 per square foot, and $0.66 per square foot in the Southeast Valley. The highest average rental rates are predictably seen in the Northeast Valley, which reported an average of $0.85 per square foot. More than 2.9 million square feet was leased in the second quarter, representing 593 transactions. Leases remain steady compared to the first quarter of this year, but the rate will likely fall short of 2013 when 16.7 million square feet was leased. Vacancy rates continue to fall after the spike seen last year. The second quarter of 2014 reported a 12.6 percent vacancy, down from the high of 13.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013. While a positive indicator, vacancy rates in the industrial sector swing on such a pendulum …
The Phoenix metro economy continues to outpace the nation in job growth, even though 2014 has taken on a slower pace than last year. Much of the 2013 job growth occurred in education, healthcare and financial services. The latter has been a particularly strong growth industry for Phoenix, with 7.2 percent job growth in 2013, versus overall job growth of 2.8 percent. Overall job growth for Phoenix is forecast to be 3.2 percent this year. Despite the job growth and the cautiously optimistic outlook from most within the retail industry, new retail development is still very limited. Unlike in the past when the anchor was a traditional grocery or discount store, much of the development today is anchored by non-retail traffic generators. This includes office and apartment developments, such as new retail space planned for SkySong at Scottsdale and McDowell roads. There are also several ground-floor retail opportunities at the newest mid-rise apartment developments around Scottsdale Fashion Square, Arizona State University and the area on the northern edge of Downtown Phoenix near Roosevelt and Central. Additional retail is planned adjacent to the newest Village Health Club at Ocotillo/Alma School Road in south Chandler. Retail and hospitality developments have been proposed …
The Phoenix metro office market continues to show signs of growth and recovery despite a high level of economic uncertainty that businesses around the country are experiencing today. Besides this being an election year, there is uncertainty over healthcare costs, the regulatory environment, minimum wage, taxes, government spending, entitlement programs, political gridlock, and on and on. The Phoenix metro area has absorbed 1.1 million square feet of office space year-to-date, bringing overall vacancy down to 18.6 percent, according to Colliers. Most of the larger, contiguous office spaces that are in demand by larger companies have been absorbed. However, uncertainty has caused postponement in investment, hiring, expansion and relocation, especially for small- to medium-sized businesses. Much of the vacant office space is composed of small, noncontiguous spaces that these firms would occupy. Certain submarkets enjoy vacancy rates in the single digits. Chandler’s Price Corridor and downtown Tempe have been consistently attractive to larger office users given their amenities and concentration of technology firms, financial institutions, software developers, insurance, and many other industries and institutions. Rental rates are beginning to inch up in these submarkets as supply is absorbed and new construction begins to take shape. Excessive economic uncertainty has kept the …
The answer to that question is both yes and no. For some institutional investors and developers, perception is all that matters. And their perception of the metro Phoenix office market is “we’ll pass – for now.” Driving this perception is the 23 percent office vacancy rate reported by major brokerage firms in their recent quarterly market reports. But perception and reality are not always the same. Drilling down into the data reveals that certain submarkets have vacancy rates in the low single digits, and the size of available vacant space differs from what users in the market want. What cannot be determined from quarterly market reports is just how much space suffers from functional obsolescence. Numerous buildings sit vacant – even during good economic conditions – due to poor location, not enough parking, inadequate power, deferred maintenance and numerous other deficiencies. Most office brokers believe that at least 5 percent to 7 percent of vacant space is in obsolete buildings. Assuming that is true, why are good, quality buildings still 16 percent to 18 percent vacant? The majority of office vacancy is composed of smaller, non-contiguous, spaces. Due to lingering uncertainty in the overall economy, most small- to medium-size businesses …
The boom times of retail development in Metro Phoenix, which started in the mid-‘90s, have long been considered the “good ol’days.” The market peak of 2007, when 11.2 million square feet of new retail was delivered, was followed by development plummet. Between 2010 and 2012, the region averaged less than 1 million square feet per year. Phoenix’s retail recovery began in 2011, and has experienced a steadily increasing demand for existing space. Though few are singing “Happy Days are Here Again,” times are looking up. Retail and restaurant sales are increasing in Phoenix. This, combined with an availability of quality retail locations at attractive rents, has inspired national and regional retailers and restaurants to increasingly think about Phoenix when they’re looking to expand. Much of the demand for new retail and restaurant space has occurred in mature areas since the start of the recovery. As reports of new home sales increase in the outlying areas, however, some of the troubled retail centers that were built between 2006 and 2008 are experiencing an increase of activity. Retail vacancy rates dropped in the past nine months by almost 1 percent, settling at 10.5 percent for the third quarter of this year. The …
The metro Phoenix office market is finally starting to make a comeback. Metro Phoenix ranked third in the nation in terms of net absorption for the third quarter, posting a positive 1,008,933 square feet. Demand has been steadily increasing for the office sector, especially for buildings that can accommodate large corporate users. Phoenix’s office market is still recovering from a large oversupply. The office vacancy rate more than doubled from the beginning of 2007 to the second quarter of 2011, increasing from 12.2 percent to 24.5 percent. Since then, a gradual increase in demand and a lack of new construction has brought the vacancy rate down to 21.2 percent. Right-sizing by office users through the consolidation of space, and by using more efficient floor plates, has slowed the overall decline in vacancy. To draw a parallel to the 2001 recession, demand for office space in Metro Phoenix was weak in the first three years of recovery, averaging 1.7 million square feet of annual net absorption. The office sector took off in 2005, 2006 and 2007, averaging 2.8 million square feet of annual net absorption. Due to the recent increase in demand, build-to-suit and speculative construction announcements made the news in …