One of the newest trends in Phoenix office leasing is the spur in technology and creative space requirements, especially for tenants moving in from Northern and Southern California. These companies are searching for a more favorable market — one with lower labor costs and rental rates, more affordable housing, an educated workforce from which to draw, less traffic and an overall higher quality of life — and the Phoenix area fares well comparatively. I expect this trend to continue, especially in the downtown markets of Phoenix, Tempe and Scottsdale. Strong leasing activity throughout the Phoenix market this year resulted in robust absorption, with Class B product leading the way. There are numerous large tenants currently in the market seeking to lock up space, which will keep demand elevated throughout the remainder of the year. Healthcare and financial services industries are committing to the market, especially with larger-scale operations centers. Parking needs for these users are 6:1000 and greater. Tempe remains a hot spot for development, with two new high-profile speculative projects underway — the Grand at Papago Park Center (213,055 square feet) and 2100 Rio Salado (102,819 square feet). Two new buildings were completed this quarter at Tempe’s Marina Heights …
As we approach the fourth quarter of 2016, the Phoenix retail market is experiencing its lowest vacancy rates since 2008. Vacancy has dropped to just under 9 percent, a slight improvement from the start of 2015, while rental rates have climbed 0.8 percent to $14.53 per square foot. Positive economic indicators such as population growth, a favorable job market, and new-home construction are all contributing toward a healthy retail market in Phoenix. Consumer confidence continues to rise and demand for retail space has become stronger than previous years. Vacant spaces in core locations are being absorbed by national, regional and local retailers as well. Anchor space activity continues to be geared around value-oriented retailers, fitness users, family entertainment concepts and alternative uses. Quick-serve restaurants are the most active tenants in the market. These concepts include Panera Bread, Starbucks, Café Rio, Pieology, MOD Pizza and Jimmy John’s. In addition, new health-conscious restaurants are starting to look at Phoenix for store openings in 2017, such as Ahi Poki, Eat Fit Go, Grabba Green and Nekter. Supermarkets are driving new development in core trade areas of Phoenix, as well as in high-growth markets. Fry’s Food & Drug has started construction on seven new …
The Phoenix industrial market is thriving, despite more than 5.6 million square feet of new construction set to deliver this year. There is enough demand in this market to keep the average vacancy rate at a near eight-year low of 9.7 percent, while absorption is on pace to exceed 6 million square feet for the third year in a row. Tenants have more choices than ever thanks to all this new inventory. Many are making a flight to quality, upgrading to next-generation space featuring wide column spacing and clear heights of up to 36 feet. This is particularly valuable in the West Valley, where large, efficiency-focused, third-party logistics firms and e-commerce companies must maximize how they manage vast amounts of product. Some of these needs are so specific that corporations have opted to custom build, as is the case with the recently completed 400,000-square-foot REI distribution center and the 384,377-square-foot IRIS USA facility, both situated in Surprise. These projects rank as the Valley’s two largest owner-builder completions of the year and have propelled the Northwest submarket — the third smallest industrial submarket in metro Phoenix — into the “hot” category. Meanwhile, owners and builders have gotten more creative in centralized …
The Greater Phoenix multifamily market continues to thrive in a high-demand environment, driven by strong tenant volume and investor interest. As the local economy expands, employers are adding workers at a steady pace while demand for housing is on the rise. Apartments remain the preferred choice for many, pushing multifamily vacancy rates low even as new units are added to inventory. We fully anticipate these conditions to continue in the year ahead. Multifamily vacancy in the Greater Phoenix market ended the second quarter of 2016 at 5.9 percent, 20 basis points lower than one year earlier. Vacancy typically ticks higher in the second quarter, as some part-time residents escape the summer heat wave. This trend occurred again this year. Despite the recent seasonal rise, vacancy has been below 6 percent for the past four quarters, and the rate will undoubtedly tick lower in the second half of this year. The low-vacancy conditions are fueling robust rent growth. Asking rents have spiked by more than 8 percent in the past year, while the pace of gains is accelerating. Asking rents rose more than 5 percent in the first half of 2016, with additional increases anticipated in the months ahead. More than …
Owners, investors and developers are bullish about the Phoenix industrial market – and for good reason. We occupy one of the most strategic supply chain locations in the West – a sweet spot between West Coast ports, manufacturing in Mexico, and alongside truck and rail routes leading product into the heart of the nation. Add to this Governor Ducey’s mandate to grow Arizona’s trade volume with Mexico by 20 percent per year – not to mention Mexico itself being on the verge of becoming the world’s largest manufacturer – and you have a Phoenix market entering a new era of long-term growth. This has expanded our already robust industrial construction industry, where design-build is hot and will likely stay that way, thanks to the 8 million square feet to 10 million square feet of industrial requirements seriously considering Arizona for their location solutions. For energy-centric companies with high employee head counts in particular, Arizona offers as much as a 30 percent to 40 percent savings proposition over higher-cost Tier 1 markets. The West Valley has welcomed 10 million square feet of larger build-to-suit corporate projects looking for specialized footprints and visibility along I-10 in the past three years. These include …
After muddling through the post-recession with office vacancy rates stuck around 20 percent for the overall Phoenix office market, the office sector has begun to show elements of stabilization in the Valley of the Sun. The unemployment rate in Phoenix plummeted to 5 percent in April this year, down from more than 11 percent near the end of 2009. The overall office vacancy ended the first quarter of this year at 17.2 percent. Second quarter figures were not available at press time, but my colleagues and I think it will dip below 17 percent at mid-year. If it does, the vacancy rate will have dropped nearly 300 basis points over the previous 24 months. The submarkets with the lowest vacancy rates are the usual suspects in our marketplace: Scottsdale (11.2 percent), 44th Street Corridor (aka Camelback Corridor at 11.6 percent) and Tempe, which houses the main campus of Arizona State University (12.7 percent). The slow and steady recovery makes for a healthier market than boom and bust swings. Some of the region’s larger office occupiers have expanded in recent years, which account for a substantial amount of office space absorption. A short list of growing companies with significant footprints here …
Before raising the curtain on 2015, it is important to understand how the stage has been set. The Phoenix industrial sector continues to build for changes in the market. Local and national developers delivered 6.3 million square feet of speculative industrial warehousing in the market last year, primarily due to big box projects. While most of these projects were in the Southwest Phoenix submarket, we have seen construction in the Sky Harbor and Southeast Valley submarkets as well. The national economy continues to improve slowly, and while activity levels during the numerous projects have been steady, closed deals for large blocks of space continue to be elusive. Although net absorption was positive by the end of last year, lease transaction volumes were mostly in the 50,000 to 200,000 square feet range. This prompted developers to modify their efforts by offering to divide their big boxes to accommodate partial building tenants, where prior expectations were geared toward single-tenant, full-building occupancy. There were still several big box projects under construction by the end of last year. This includes projects by Wentworth Properties, Trammel Crow/Clarion Partners, Conor Commercial, Hillwood and several other projects in shovel-ready position. Those ready to break ground include Prologis, …
The Phoenix retail market ended 2014 on a promising note, with vacancy rates dipping below 10 percent for the first time since the Great Recession ended. It also experienced net absorption of more than 2 million square feet of retail space. Expectations for 2015 are positive, and continued improvement is anticipated, albeit slower than we might have hoped. While many segments of the market have improved, lackluster job growth and housing sales have slowed the recovery. However, both areas show signs of improvement for the coming year. Forecasts estimate Phoenix will add about 70,000 jobs in 2015, bringing the total number close to the pre-recession total. The demand for single-family housing should improve with the continuance of low interest rates, job growth and investor interest. The market is finally showing signs it is on the upward path to recovery. Leasing activity for Class A space remains strong, while rental rates are on the rise. We have seen marked improvement in some areas like Scottsdale where rates for Class A space in centers like The Marketplace at Lincoln & Scottsdale and Hilton Village are approaching or surpassing $40 per square foot, and where vacancy rates are below 6 percent. In contrast, …
The Phoenix office market ended the third quarter in a very strong position. Increasing momentum in the sector should continue into 2015. Healthier economic conditions, including a growing GDP and higher employment, are translating into increased market activity and confidence. The biggest take-away from Phoenix’s rebounding office sector is new office development, with several high-profile construction projects underway in the East Valley. Tower cranes dot the horizon along Tempe Town Lake in downtown Tempe. The largest project, State Farm’s Marina Heights, is under construction on its first phase, which includes two mid-rises totaling more than 1 million square feet. Additional phases will bring the project to more than 2 million square feet, making it the largest office project in Arizona. Hayden Ferry Lakeside III is under construction with a 10-story, 250,000-square-foot building on the lake. This is the third and final phase of this office project. Arizona State University has also jumped into the mix by announcing a huge 330-acre development on the south side of Tempe Town Lake. It is expected to incorporate athletic, commercial and residential projects at full build-out that will be utilized as a funding source for ASU Athletics. USA Place, a $400-million-plus development in downtown, …
The Phoenix industrial market is definitely following national trends in terms of recovery. Since 2010, U.S. industrial markets have seen rising demand trends with supply additions that have not kept pace. Demand for newer, Class A industrial space, as well as for use-specific space, is outpacing supply and encouraging more build-to-suit and speculative development activity across markets. Developers have shown discipline so far, however, as the amount of new supply added to the market since 2010 is well below the levels seen during previous expansionary periods. These trends are manifesting themselves in a variety of ways in Metro Phoenix. First, it’s clear that demand is definitely up. The industrial market has seen significant activity over the past several quarters. Leases for spaces between 20,000 and 200,000 square feet have totaled more than 10.5 million square feet since January 2013. Deals of this size have totaled more than 1.4 million square feet of absorption this year alone. This is important to note because the overall health of the Metro Phoenix industrial market has historically been supported by midsized users. This size range shows no signs of slowing as we round out 2014 and head into 2015. In fact, we know of …