The Phoenix metro office market continues to show signs of growth and recovery despite a high level of economic uncertainty that businesses around the country are experiencing today. Besides this being an election year, there is uncertainty over healthcare costs, the regulatory environment, minimum wage, taxes, government spending, entitlement programs, political gridlock, and on and on. The Phoenix metro area has absorbed 1.1 million square feet of office space year-to-date, bringing overall vacancy down to 18.6 percent, according to Colliers. Most of the larger, contiguous office spaces that are in demand by larger companies have been absorbed. However, uncertainty has caused postponement in investment, hiring, expansion and relocation, especially for small- to medium-sized businesses. Much of the vacant office space is composed of small, noncontiguous spaces that these firms would occupy. Certain submarkets enjoy vacancy rates in the single digits. Chandler’s Price Corridor and downtown Tempe have been consistently attractive to larger office users given their amenities and concentration of technology firms, financial institutions, software developers, insurance, and many other industries and institutions. Rental rates are beginning to inch up in these submarkets as supply is absorbed and new construction begins to take shape. Excessive economic uncertainty has kept the …
Market Reports
The answer to that question is both yes and no. For some institutional investors and developers, perception is all that matters. And their perception of the metro Phoenix office market is “we’ll pass – for now.” Driving this perception is the 23 percent office vacancy rate reported by major brokerage firms in their recent quarterly market reports. But perception and reality are not always the same. Drilling down into the data reveals that certain submarkets have vacancy rates in the low single digits, and the size of available vacant space differs from what users in the market want. What cannot be determined from quarterly market reports is just how much space suffers from functional obsolescence. Numerous buildings sit vacant – even during good economic conditions – due to poor location, not enough parking, inadequate power, deferred maintenance and numerous other deficiencies. Most office brokers believe that at least 5 percent to 7 percent of vacant space is in obsolete buildings. Assuming that is true, why are good, quality buildings still 16 percent to 18 percent vacant? The majority of office vacancy is composed of smaller, non-contiguous, spaces. Due to lingering uncertainty in the overall economy, most small- to medium-size businesses …
The boom times of retail development in Metro Phoenix, which started in the mid-‘90s, have long been considered the “good ol’days.” The market peak of 2007, when 11.2 million square feet of new retail was delivered, was followed by development plummet. Between 2010 and 2012, the region averaged less than 1 million square feet per year. Phoenix’s retail recovery began in 2011, and has experienced a steadily increasing demand for existing space. Though few are singing “Happy Days are Here Again,” times are looking up. Retail and restaurant sales are increasing in Phoenix. This, combined with an availability of quality retail locations at attractive rents, has inspired national and regional retailers and restaurants to increasingly think about Phoenix when they’re looking to expand. Much of the demand for new retail and restaurant space has occurred in mature areas since the start of the recovery. As reports of new home sales increase in the outlying areas, however, some of the troubled retail centers that were built between 2006 and 2008 are experiencing an increase of activity. Retail vacancy rates dropped in the past nine months by almost 1 percent, settling at 10.5 percent for the third quarter of this year. The …
The metro Phoenix office market is finally starting to make a comeback. Metro Phoenix ranked third in the nation in terms of net absorption for the third quarter, posting a positive 1,008,933 square feet. Demand has been steadily increasing for the office sector, especially for buildings that can accommodate large corporate users. Phoenix’s office market is still recovering from a large oversupply. The office vacancy rate more than doubled from the beginning of 2007 to the second quarter of 2011, increasing from 12.2 percent to 24.5 percent. Since then, a gradual increase in demand and a lack of new construction has brought the vacancy rate down to 21.2 percent. Right-sizing by office users through the consolidation of space, and by using more efficient floor plates, has slowed the overall decline in vacancy. To draw a parallel to the 2001 recession, demand for office space in Metro Phoenix was weak in the first three years of recovery, averaging 1.7 million square feet of annual net absorption. The office sector took off in 2005, 2006 and 2007, averaging 2.8 million square feet of annual net absorption. Due to the recent increase in demand, build-to-suit and speculative construction announcements made the news in …
It is no secret hat recovery in this real estate cycle hinges on job creation. In Phoenix, this means all eyes are on the markets that can deliver not only space and amenities, but also that golden element: employees. The Southeast Valley emerged early as Phoenix’s premier labor play and most dynamic “big picture” winner with amenities like Arizona State University, Light Rail and a strong base of corporate users. As a result, markets like Tempe have surged ahead with year-to-date positive net absorption of 4.1 percent, 15.8 percent vacancy (compared to the metro Phoenix rate of 24.9 percent) and a host of new tenant announcements. In 2013 alone, Go Daddy added 150,000 square feet to its local footprint; Silicon Valley Bank inked an expansion at Hayden Ferry Lakeside; and State Farm rocked the industry with plans for a new $600-million, 2-million-square-foot office development. In March, GM announced it will invest $21 million and hire 1,000 employees for a new Information Technology Innovation Center in Chandler. This will boost Chandler’s already positive performance, which includes an auspicious 12.8 percent office vacancy and rents at $22.31 per square foot. This area has experienced a small but positive year-to-date absorption of 0.6 …
The Phoenix industrial market ended the second quarter of 2013 with vacancy rates at 12.4 percent, while net absorption totaled a positive 471,635 square feet. Asking rents are increasing and demand for larger facilities has been the catalyst in the recovery. Over the past 15 years, vacancy rates have averaged 10.3 percent, providing evidence that the current market is not far off from the average. Phoenix has historically seen significant cyclical swings. This past recession has been no exception to this. However, the positive net absorption the area’s industrial sector has experienced over the past two-plus years signals that the Valley is well on its way to recovery. The Phoenix market has absorbed 20.7 million square feet, and has built more than 7 million square feet of new space. Year-over-year, the total number of transactions has increased 24 percent, bringing excitement to the Valley once again. Big box industrial in Phoenix has absorbed about 15 million square feet of space on a net basis throughout 2011 and 2012. The vast majority of that net absorption has been big box product in the Southwest Valley. Rental rates also increased from the high $0.20 net range to a current low-mid $0.30 range …
The multifamily market in the Phoenix metropolitan area remains, as it was in 2012, the most popular property sector for investment and new construction. Post-recession job creation, coupled with echo-boomers leaving the nest, has created a leveraged demand for multifamily product. Years of near-zero construction, followed by a rapid increase in demand, has created a landlord’s market throughout most of the valley. Vacancy across the Phoenix metro area is now less than 7 percent. It is expected to fall to less than 6 percent by the end of the year. Rental rates are up 3 percent to 5 percent valley-wide, with some submarkets fairing much better than others. Scottsdale, North Tempe and South Phoenix are some of the areas where rents are up significantly and vacancies are down. Concessions are waning in most regions, though a few remain in parts of the West Valley and Central Black Canyon. This surge in demand is spurring new apartment development catering to Generation Y (echo-boomer) tenants. Many in this demographic subset are choosing apartment living. They are doing so for two reasons: either to avoid the hurdles of qualifying for a home mortgage or to enjoy higher-end finishes and amenities that are found …
After several years with virtually no new construction of multifamily homes, the Metro Phoenix market looks to rebound with a pipeline of projects that could result in 5,000 to 7,000 new units built per year in 2013, 2014 and 2015. That returns our market to construction levels last seen in 2007. In order to see this volume of construction, developers will need to be successful in raising the required equity, which has been a challenge. At the end of 2012, the Valley had 17 projects (of 50 units or greater) under construction, totaling a little more than 4,200 units. Building on that, we expect to see 15 to 20 projects per year through 2015. This is just a fraction of the more than 20,000 units filling the development pipeline. The demand for all these units, however, will hinge on Phoenix’s population and job growth. It will also be influenced by the national and global economies. Developers are capitalizing on the recent purchases of properties in prime, upscale locations that were not previously considered for strictly rental housing. Alliance Residential, P.B. Bell and JLB have all either begun construction or have plans in the works for rental developments in premium Phoenix …
Well, 2012 has come to an end, the fiscal cliff has been averted for now and the presidential election is behind us. Despite it all, retail sales in the Arizona market seemed to fair reasonably well last year, albeit with markdowns acting as the trigger point for consumers to make those last-minute holiday purchases. With an active 2012 under our belts, the Phoenix market is hoping to outdo itself this year with leasing activity as retailers gear up for cautious expansions, downsizes and relocations. The housing picture for Maricopa County is terrific in terms of inventory being absorbed. Homebuilders are building out improved lots and creating new subdivisions. It is likely that new housing permits, which were positive in 2011, will result in more than 12,000 new homes in 2013. This number should increase steadily for the balance of the decade. This is not to indicate that new retail development will be built anytime soon, but that these numbers may create more of an opportunity to fill existing retail space that has a current vacancy rate of 11.7 percent. Last year, we experienced a positive absorption of 1.03 million square feet, according to CoStar. Therefore, unless a significant amount of …
The investment climate for the Phoenix office market is poised to provide compelling acquisition opportunities in 2013. Favorable job growth, improving market fundamentals and assets available at discounts to replacement costs are expected to enhance asset appreciation over the next several years. Phoenix has historically generated strong job growth after recessionary periods. Recent data supports this trend, as Metro Phoenix added 50,700 jobs over the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary November 2012 figures. This job growth has lowered the unemployment rate to 6.9 percent as of October 2012, well below the national rate of 7.9 percent. The area is expected to continue adding 50,000 new jobs annually through 2015, driving vacancy rates downward and creating upward pressure on rental rates and property values. Employment growth in professional and business services, and in the financial sector, is of chief importance as a demand generator for office space. Phoenix has also benefited from strong population growth. Metro Phoenix is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.6 percent per year over the next 10 years, a pace that is more than twice that of the national average. Affordable housing, a business-friendly environment and a well-educated …