Market Reports

San Francisco Office Sales Expected to Reach $1B

by Jeff Shaw October 7, 2024

— By Colin Yasukochi, executive director, Tech Insights Center, CBRE — An increasing supply of distressed properties for sale has been met with enthusiasm by a growing number of opportunistic buyers in San Francisco. Prices up to 70 percent lower than the seller’s cost basis, combined with improving fundamentals, has given investors confidence to make property purchases ahead of substantial leasing market recovery. About $1 billion of office sales volume could be reached by year-end 2024. There are 27 properties totaling 3.6 million square feet that have sold (totaling $338 million), are under contract (totaling $193 million) or being marketed ($453 million). If this occurs, it would be the highest number of properties sold since 2019 and the highest square footage and dollar volume since 2021. The years 2022 and 2023 combined had a total sales volume of $945 million. Stabilization in the office leasing market has emerged with vacancy and rents little changed and much higher space demand. Second-quarter 2024 vacancy ticked up to 36.8 percent (+0.1 percent), while average asking rents ticked down to $68.43 (-$0.12) compared to the previous quarter. Demand indicators strengthened with leasing activity and tenants in the market rising in the second quarter of …

October 7, 2024

California Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

San Francisco Multifamily Market Stagnates Amid High Rates

by Jeff Shaw September 30, 2024

— By Dustin Dolby, executive vice president, Colliers — During the second quarter of 2024, the San Francisco multifamily market endured high interest rates and delayed cuts. Between June and December of 2023, expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting rates spurred an increase in transactional activity following an apparent lull in the first quarter of 2023 as interest rates remained elevated. This two-peat of complacent transactions can be attributed to the looming decision concerning interest rate trajectories and its projections. Upon reaching the second quarter of 2024, we have yet to see any such cuts applied. This — along with the Federal Reserve’s consistent reluctance to cut — has resulted in a plateau of transactional volume within the San Francisco multifamily market. Development within the San Francisco submarket has faced similar stagnation. However, this can be attributed to a lengthy “shot clock” that new developments face regarding the city approval process. Because of this, projects that focus on a large percentage of affordable units have been streamlined and comprise the bulk of new developments in the market. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by the end of the third or fourth quarter of this year — as anticipated in its …

September 30, 2024

California Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

Shifting Generations Redefine the Bay Area’s Multifamily Market

by Jeff Shaw September 23, 2024

— By Rachel Ivers, senior analyst, multifamily investment sales team, and Bryan Danforth and Matt Thomson, senior vice presidents, Compass Commercial — The multifamily investment sales market in the San Francisco Bay Area is undergoing a noticeable transformation that’s driven by economic pressures and evolving investor strategies. Unlike in previous years — where sellers might list properties to capitalize on market highs or interest rate lows — the current environment is seeing fewer sales motivated by profit. Many sellers today are cashing out due to expiring fixed interest rates or selling for personal reasons rather than purely financial motivations. This includes circumstances such as inheritance, divorce or retirement. With the Baby Boomer generation, currently aged 60 to 78 and reaching retirement age in larger numbers, we’re beginning to see the front end of significant changes in property ownership. This demographic shift is likely to drive a substantial increase in inheritance sales in the near future as life expectancy hovers around 77.5 years. A significant factor driving this shift is the belief among many investors that the market has peaked. Concerns about stricter rent control measures, which continue to appear on ballots, are prompting these investors to seek opportunities elsewhere. Markets …

September 23, 2024

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

NorCal Industrial Markets Show Signs of Optimism Despite Increased Vacancy

by Jeff Shaw September 16, 2024

— By David Nelson, regional president of brokerage for Northern California and Nevada, Kidder Mathews — After record figures across most U.S. industrial markets in 2021 and 2022, key fundamentals cooled in 2023 and have been recalibrating ever since. Total net absorption has been negative in recent quarters, sublease space is on the rise, vacancy and availability rates have been steadily inching up, and average asking lease rates are relatively flat. Furthermore, the recent surge in development activity due to the rise in ecommerce penetration has been slowly drying up with construction starts dropping by more than 60 percent in 2023 and 2024. Core industrial markets in the Bay Area experienced notable increases in both vacancy and availability. Silicon Valley vacancy rose from between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent last year to 3 percent and 4 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, East Bay rose from 3.5 percent and 4 percent in 2023 to 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent in second-quarter 2024. During the first half of the year, an increase in sublease space has been a major contributor to the higher rates. They have increased from the pre-COVID average of 9 percent of total available space to 19 percent at the end …

September 16, 2024

California Market Reports Retail Western Western Market Reports

San Francisco Retail Market Eyes Continued Growth

by Jeff Shaw September 10, 2024

— By Kazuko Morgan, executive vice chair; Alanna Joy Loeffler, managing director, business strategy and development, Americas retail services; and Soany Gunawan, senior research analyst, San Francisco retail research, Cushman & Wakefield — Over the past few years, the headline narrative surrounding San Francisco has focused on store closures, complex governance issues and city challenges. However, with one of the highest U.S. household incomes, a rising population count and the lowest unemployment rate in California, the city remains a beacon of opportunity, innovation and creativity. Within the urban retail market, San Francisco continues to demonstrate resilience and growth with a host of new brands, products and services arriving and thriving. Retail sales in San Francisco have continued to increase, climbing an estimated 5.7 percent year over year to $37.1 billion in the second quarter of 2024. A multitude of exciting brands and new concepts are opening, flourishing or expanding. INGKA has launched its first-ever food hall, Saluhall, a 23,000-square-foot, plant-forward culinary project connected to the IKEA store at 945 Market Street. This addition not only creates jobs but enriches the community with regular events, highlighting local food vendors while offering fun and educational cooking classes. MillerKnoll’s modern furnishings brand Design Within Reach …

September 10, 2024

California Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Southern California’s Imperial Valley Has an Innovative Future

by Jeff Shaw September 3, 2024

— By Matt Davis — Imperial County is deeply intertwined with agriculture, experiencing significant growth in both farmable acreage and the value of its agricultural outputs. The region has had a 20 percent increase in the number of farms, a 40 percent expansion in farmed acreage and a nearly 65 percent rise in the market value of agricultural products sold over the past five years. However, agriculture is not the only growing industry in the Valley. It will also soon be recognized for its lithium extraction and geothermal energy production, as well as its role as a strategic logistics hub. As newer industry sectors continue to grow and evolve in the region, their demand for land will also increase. Fortunately, Imperial County boasts ample available land to meet these needs. Investor interest in Imperial Valley land has surged as agricultural areas — despite continued growth — are increasingly transitioning to higher and better uses in key areas of the Valley. From Farming To Energy Forward-thinking investors and developers have begun to purchase and reposition legacy agricultural land to support emerging lithium mining operations in northern Imperial County and logistics users near the Calexico-East port of entry in the south. They …

September 3, 2024

California Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

Despite Challenges, OC’s Multifamily Sector Sees Light at the End of the Tunnel

by Jeff Shaw August 30, 2024

— By Pat Swanson — Orange County’s multifamily housing market is still facing challenges. These include rising operating expenses, such as escalating insurance costs and new regulatory standards like SB 721. However, I am optimistic that the county will experience a soft landing compared to other parts of the country. Inflationary pressures and stringent rent control measures in areas like Santa Ana have heightened financial burdens for property owners, impacting profitability and investment decisions. Investors are increasingly favoring higher-quality, long-term assets in premier coastal locations like Newport Beach where properties have shown robust rent growth, averaging 5 percent annually over the past five years. Our team of multifamily advisors works closely with clients to navigate this evolving landscape, emphasizing opportunities in high-demand, flight-to-quality assets. Seller-carry financing and loan assumptions have emerged as highly sought-after options, appealing to buyers seeking reduced upfront costs and flexible financing terms, while allowing sellers to maximize property value without heavy down payment requirements. There is pent-up demand in Orange County’s multifamily housing market, particularly for properties in the right areas. Our expertise lies in identifying and leveraging these opportunities for our clients. By understanding the nuances of market demand and regulatory changes, we can help …

August 30, 2024

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

How to Motivate Employees Back to the Office in California’s South Coast

by Jeff Shaw August 27, 2024

— By Nellie Day — Employers all over the nation are looking for ways to bring employees back into the office. In many cases, it’s been a large ask, as employees have adapted to the work-from-home environment and its perceived perks. One of the biggest strategies employers have undertaken is creating an enticing environment where employees want to be. This can include intriguing office spaces, useful amenities, opportunities for socializing and beautiful outdoor spaces. This strategy can go even further when local businesses and municipalities work together. Such is the case with South Coast Metro Alliance, a non-profit corporation of Orange County, Calif.-based property owners and major businesses that have a long-term investment in the area through ownership and/or long-term leases. The economic development organization, which encompasses north Costa Mesa and south Santa Ana, has worked to ensure employers are proud of the spaces they can offer their employees — and that, in turn, employees are excited to return to the office. WREB spoke to Diane Pritchett, executive director of the South Coast Metro Alliance, to discuss the specific strategies employed by businesses and the South Coast Metro Alliance to reactive the local office environment. WREB: How has the introduction …

August 27, 2024

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

Orange County Is Undergoing a Slow Office Recovery

by Jeff Shaw August 23, 2024

— By Marty Pupil — The Orange County office sector continues to battle through the early stages of a market turnaround as tenants adapt to new workplace strategies while balancing employee retention and company production. The market is beginning to thaw, however, as more tenants make decisions on their office space requirements, creating opportunities for tenant activity. Net absorption was negative at the onset of 2024, totaling 338,100 square feet. South County experienced the highest amount of move-outs at 199,002 square feet, followed by the Airport Area with 171,171 square feet. Central County, North County and West County submarkets combined for positive absorption of 32,073 square feet. Right now, positive absorption shows up in pockets of the market and can vary by submarket and quarter. Positive absorption for the overall market will become sustainable when new leasing activity reaches levels that are high enough to compensate for givebacks. Total vacancy in the first quarter rose 20 basis points quarter over quarter to 18.1 percent from 17.9 percent, while increasing year over year from 18 percent. Despite this, current vacancy remains well above the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 13.9 percent. For perspective, vacancy peaked at 19.2 percent during the financial crisis …

August 23, 2024

California Industrial Leasing Activity Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Orange County Industrial Sector Experiences Leasing Slowdown, but Investment Remains Active

by Jeff Shaw August 16, 2024

— By Erick Parulan — The Orange County industrial market, along with Los Angeles and the Inland Empire, is experiencing a general decline in leasing activity as it navigates the post-pandemic landscape. Tenant demand and leasing have significantly slowed as occupiers adopt a more cautious approach to expansion, with some occupiers deciding to downsize and consolidate their industrial footprints. Tenant occupancies continue to contract in the second quarter, with manufacturers, retailers and 3PL (third-party logistics) companies shedding unused space that may have been acquired during the pandemic frenzy, further increasing sublet availabilities. Orange County sublet availabilities surpassed 3.3 million square feet in the second quarter of 2024, raising total availabilities to 9.5 percent for the quarter. While pandemic-driven rental rates hit historic highs, they have since cooled amid softening demand. Many landlords now offer increased free rent concessions to attract new tenants. Average asking lease rates have been on the decline in Orange County over the past two quarters. They decreased by 5.2 percent from the prior quarter, reaching $1.64 per square foot in second-quarter 2024. High market rents previously deterred many occupiers, but with rents on the decline, some tenants have adopted a wait-and-see approach to see where rates …

August 16, 2024

Newer Posts

Older Posts