— By J.C. Casillas of NAI Capital — Orange County’s multifamily sector entered 2026 in a period of moderation. Following a recent peak in deliveries, fourth-quarter 2025 saw developers pull back sharply, allowing vacancy to stabilize at a tight 3.8 percent even as rent growth plateaued. The shift reflects strategic caution as elevated interest rates and pricing expectations continue to shape underwriting. Demand and Supply Navigating the ‘Supply Cliff’ Vacant units inched up 0.1 percent quarter over quarter to 11,926 but remained down 1.6 percent year over year, signaling gradual relief from earlier supply pressure. Developers delivered just 430 new units in the fourth quarter, a 26 percent drop from the third quarter. This brought year-to-date deliveries to 1,979 units, down 43 percent from 2024. With only 4,775 units still under construction — a 14 percent annual decline — the market is approaching a potential supply cliff that could tighten inventory by 2027. Vacancy held at 3.8 percent, suggesting steady renter demand. Average asking rents slipped $9 from the third quarter to $2,702 per unit. The good news is it still posted a 1.7 percent year-over-year gain. Since the 2024 development peak, higher borrowing costs and construction expenses have tempered the …
— By Wes Hunnicutt and Matt Moore of Stream Realty Partners — Following a record-low vacancy of 1.4 percent in fourth-quarter 2022, Orange County’s industrial market has experienced a sustained period of rising vacancy and negative net absorption, driven by broader economic caution, elevated interest rates and softening demand for space. However, it also showed signs of slight improvement at the end of 2025. Vacancy stood at 6.1 percent at the end of last year, down slightly quarter over quarter from 6.2 percent, but higher than 5.5 percent 12 months ago. For context, vacancy immediately prior to the pandemic was 3.3 percent. Availability, which includes all spaces listed on the market for lease, came in at 7.5 percent at the end of last year. A defining feature of recent quarters has been low tenant demand for space, with seven consecutive quarters of negative absorption. This reflects cautious tenant behavior as businesses delay expansion decisions amid economic headwinds and higher borrowing costs. Fourth-quarter 2025 ended this streak with the market experiencing positive net absorption of 285,000 square feet. Larger distribution and logistics facilities experienced increased pressure and longer lease-up timelines, whereas smaller spaces of less than 100,000 square feet have performed …
— By Tim Donald of JLL Capital Markets — When investment capital flows into Orange County’s office market today, it’s revealing a fundamental shift that sophisticated investors can’t afford to ignore: the distinction between quality and commodity office space has never been more pronounced, and that gap is only widening. The challenge for many investors has been identifying opportunities that offer both stability and upside in an environment where traditional core assets provide minimal growth while pure value-add plays carry significant execution risk. What we’re seeing emerge in Orange County is a compelling middle ground, deals that feel core-plus but deliver value-add returns, and there’s substantial liquidity chasing these opportunities. The Tier System Reshapes Investment Strategy JLL’s national office team has developed a tiering system that divides office properties into distinct quality categories based on amenities, location and tenant appeal. In Orange County, this frame-work has revealed a market operating on fundamentally different planes. Tier I assets, representing a small fraction of the county’s inventory, are demonstrating exceptional resilience while Tier II properties continue to attract significant tenant and investor interest. This isn’t just academic categorization. The performance differential shows that investors are willing to pay premiums for assets with clear …
— By John Read of CBRE Retail Investment Properties-West — Orange County is often defined by its 42 miles of Pacific coastline, its globally recognized theme parks like Disneyland and Knott’s Berry Farm, and retail landmarks like South Coast Plaza and Fashion Island. Those assets contribute to the region’s visibility and appeal. But they are not what ultimately sustain its retail performance. The county’s strength is rooted in its scale and demographics. Encompassing nearly 800 square miles, Orange County is home to more than 3.1 million residents and one of the most diverse populations in the U.S., including the second-highest share of foreign-born residents in Southern California. The county’s strong retail fundamentals are supported by significant affluence and education. Average household income exceeds $157,000, and 46 percent of residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. Orange County is also home to major employers, including Disney, UC Irvine, Providence, Kaiser Permanente and Hoag, maintaining a low unemployment rate of 3.9 percent. These factors collectively make Orange County’s retail property fundamentals undeniable. The Orange County retail market ended the fourth quarter with a countywide availability rate of 3.9 percent, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter. Several submarkets were even tighter. …
— By Richard Schwartz of SRS Real Estate Partners — The Inland Empire industrial market has undergone significant recalibration over the past 24 months, moving from the “too hot” environment of 2022 and 2023 marked by record construction and rent escalation to a period of normalization. Construction-driven vacancy has pushed the market into a digestion phase, marked by softening rents, adjusting sale prices and a reset in landlord-tenant expectations. These dynamics will unlock new opportunities as we enter 2026. Limited New Development Creates Breathing Room CoStar data compiled by SRS shows that new construction peaked in 2023 with about 29.5 million square feet delivered. This was followed by 17.8 million square feet in 2024 and an expected 16 million square feet in 2025. Deliveries are projected to fall to roughly 10 million square feet in 2026, making it the lightest post-pandemic year of new supply. This delivery includes several notable projects, such as Amazon’s 2.5-million-square-foot “middle-mile” facility in Hesperia, a 650,000-square- foot storage facility in Desert Hot Springs and a 1.2-million-square-foot facility in Apple Valley that’s leased to Lecangs. This means that more than half of the Inland Empire’s 2026 construction pipeline is already pre-leased, reducing speculative exposure while accelerating the rise …
— By J.C. Casillas of NAI Capital — The Inland Empire office market continues to show signs of recovery, with broad-based tenant demand pushing occupancy higher and absorbing vacant direct space. While landlords are holding asking rents steady to capitalize on the improving environment, direct vacant space decreased 3.2 percent quarter over quarter and 16.4 percent year over year. Vacant sublease space fell a solid 4.5 percent quarter over quarter, though it nearly doubled year over year to 135,149 square feet at year-end. Renewed tenant activity continues to chip away at vacant space, reinforcing the recovery. In fourth-quarter 2025, net absorption — driven primarily by direct space — totaled about 557,000 square feet for the year, marking a meaningful milestone in the market’s rebound. The vacancy rate edged down 10 basis points quarter over quarter, supported by 106,095 square feet of space coming off the market. It now stands at 4.7 percent, 80 basis points lower than a year ago. Stabilization has been supported by shifting workplace strategies and evolving remote work patterns. Since the economy reopened following the pandemic, occupied office space has increased by nearly 2.1 million square feet, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Sublease vacancy has fallen 22.5 percent …
— By Cray Carlson of CBRE — The Inland Empire multifamily market remains one of the premier markets to invest in across Southern California, benefiting from ample land availability and less restrictive regulations than many neighboring markets. Still, like many markets, there was a disconnect between buyers and sellers in 2024 and 2025 due to interest rates. It remains psychologically difficult for investors to sell a property with an existing 3.5 percent interest rate and complete a 1031 exchange into an asset carrying a 6 percent rate. That spread creates a meaningful mental hurdle, and has prevented many owners from disposing of their properties. That hesitation, however, has not erased opportunity. There are still great opportunities in the market, even with a 6 percent interest rate. The economic fundamentals remain strong, and cap rates have increased even amid higher interest rates. Cap rates have climbed since last year, and there are still great returns to be had. While many investors continue to struggle with the reality of higher borrowing costs, escalated interest rates are not going anywhere in the near term. In 2024, the Inland Empire recorded 74 multifamily transactions of eight units or more. As of the beginning of …
— By Bill Asher of Hanley Investment Group Real Estate Advisors — The Inland Empire continues to demonstrate its resilience as one of Southern California’s most dynamic retail investment markets. In the third quarter of 2025, transaction activity accelerated, pricing held firm and cap rates compressed, underscoring investor confidence in the region’s long-term fundamentals. Even with vacancy rising and rent growth moderating, investment trends point to a market adjusting as capital continues to favor necessity-based, internet-resistant formats. According to CoStar, 73 retail properties traded in third-quarter 2025 compared to 48 in the same quarter of 2024. Average cap rates declined from 7.2 percent to 6 percent year over year, signaling stronger pricing and heightened demand. Single-tenant net lease properties led the surge, with 46 transactions in third-quarter 2025 versus 28 a year earlier. Average cap rates tightened to 5.9 percent, down from 6.8 percent in third-quarter 2024. Multi-tenant retail also showed healthy demand, with 22 properties sold in third-quarter 2025 versus 20 in third-quarter 2024, and average cap rates compressed from 7.4 percent to 6.2 percent. This momentum reflects a convergence of factors that shaped the second half of 2025. Pent-up demand and impatient capital deployed equity as many sellers …
— By Sebastian Bernt of Avison Young — The San Diego office market is beginning to stabilize in 2025. However, recovery remains uneven amid elevated vacancy, rising sublease availability and evolving workplace strategies. While quarterly leasing activity has improved modestly— up roughly 7 percent year over year through the second quarter — overall fundamentals remain challenged. San Diego’s total office availability rate stands at 18.2 percent as of the second quarter. This is flat from the previous quarter but still up more than 500 basis points from pre-pandemic norms. Sublease availability exceeds 2.2 million square feet, a lingering effect of corporate downsizing and the continued shift toward hybrid work models. Sublease inventory is most concentrated in suburban nodes such as UTC and Sorrento Mesa, as well as Downtown San Diego. Demand remains strongest for Class A assets in suburban submarkets like UTC, Del Mar Heights and Sorrento Valley where tenants prioritize modern, amenity-rich properties. Even within these markets, average deal sizes have declined by 20 percent to 30 percent compared to 2019 levels, with users often consolidating space and seeking shorter lease terms. Downtown San Diego continues to face pronounced headwinds, with vacancy topping 25 percent in several Class B …
— By Bryce Aberg and Brant Aberg of Cushman & Wakefield — Optimism is returning to the San Diego industrial market after a few quarters of recalibration. Buyer appetite has resurfaced in core submarkets like Otay Mesa, Miramar and Carlsbad, which has created a ripple effect across the Greater San Diego industrial market. With an inventory of 162 million square feet as of the second quarter, San Diego is beginning to see the benefit of limited supply. Natural barriers like Mexico, the Pacific Ocean, Camp Pendleton and the nearby mountains are driving the San Diego industrial market toward full build-out. There is currently only 2.4 million square feet of inventory under construction, with not much more proposed. Following the all-time highs in rent growth and positive absorption seen in 2021 and 2022, San Diego’s enduring fundamentals and built-in advantages have kept it in place as one of the most stable and competitive in Southern California. With a diversified tenant base, high barriers to entry and a strategic position on the U.S.-Mexico border, fundamentals have held while others in the Southern California region have struggled in comparison. Bid-ask spreads are also starting to narrow as buyer and seller sentiments begin to …
Newer Posts