By Bob Basen, Executive Vice President, Coldwell Banker Commercial Real Estate Solutions The High Desert’s multifamily market remained surprisingly strong during the pandemic. Historic low vacancies in the High Desert apartment market, combined with low cap rates in Los Angeles and Orange counties, have made this market a favorite for “down the hill” investors. With the exception of three substantial multifamily projects in Hesperia, there has been no real apartment development in the High Desert since the mid-2000s. The recently completed The Villas, a 96-unit, age-restricted project developed by Eagle Hesperia 55 LP, has had phenomenal success with a waiting list prior to completion. With the success of this project, there will be a second phase containing another 96 units. Frontier Homes’ Las Casitas Apartment Homes and the 200-unit West Main Villas, developed by Bruno Mancinelli, were also very successful with two-bedroom apartments renting for more than $1,600 per month. This is a number that was unheard of prior to these projects. With those kinds of rents, we can and should expect to see increased apartment development in the High Desert. Hesperia has decreased its development impact fees, which may have spurred the above-mentioned developments within that city. There are currently …
Market Reports
By Joseph W. Brady, President, Bradco Cos. The High Desert portion of San Bernardino County, also known as the Mojave River Valley, is anticipating exceptional industrial development growth in the upcoming years as the balance of the Inland Empire builds out and has no significant land to further develop. The Mojave River Valley region contains more than 22 million square feet of industrial space. The City of Hesperia has recently experienced a mass grading project — probably the largest grading project in the High Desert’s history. Covington Capital is mass grading 232 acres where it intends to build a 3.5-million-square-foot industrial complex. The first building (1,055,360 square feet) will be developed for Modway. It will increase the major furniture distributor’s ability to serve regional and national distribution requirements from its current 310,555-square-foot facility in Fontana. The 60-acre site is being developed by Exeter Property Group. Big Lots opened its new distribution center in north/east Apple Valley in late 2019. This 1.3-million-square-foot facility sits just south of Walmart’s distribution center. Brightline West has also acquired property in north Apple Valley near Dale Evans Parkway for a high-speed rail station that will move passengers from Southern California to Las Vegas in 90 minutes at speeds …
By Drew Sanden, Senior Managing Director, Newmark The Inland Empire office market boasted very strong fundamentals heading into 2020. The vacancy rate across the 28.3 million-square-foot base was 9.5 percent, lease rates were reaching peak levels and developers were again exploring larger spec developments. Like many markets across the U.S., COVID-19 has greatly impacted the Inland Empire’s office market. Office usage, demand, absorption and leasing transactions are down year-over-year. Large back-office transaction volume has been the most impacted as companies struggle to manage the social distancing guidelines. With that said, the suburban nature of the Inland Empire has helped insulate the office market. The combination of affordable housing (relative to Southern California’s coastal communities) and remote work opportunities have strengthened the overall workforce. This pandemic has acted as an accelerator for the hub-and-spoke trend where companies have larger regional offices in CBDs like Los Angeles and Irvine, while maintaining smaller satellite offices in suburban markets. We’ve seen an influx of small satellite offices in Corona, Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga and Riverside. Demand for medical office building (MOB) leasing and sales has remained strong. This trend was highlighted with the pre-sale of two medical office buildings at the Rincon in Chino Hills, …
By Cray Carlson, CBRE With 2020 coming to an end, we look back at a year of much uncertainty, confusion and unprecedented restrictions. Yet amidst all that, the Inland Empire multifamily market has been going steady, continuing to thrive in spite of some substantial drops in sales volumes. Total multifamily sales of eight units and larger in the Inland Empire were $2.5 billion in 2018 and $2.1 billion in 2019. That compares with only $1.09 billion in 2020, as of October. We expect total sales volumes in the area could ultimately show a reduction of up to 40 percent for the full year. So, how is the Inland Empire maintaining its title as one of the strongest apartment markets in the nation? Collections A recent housing and employment study examined the ability for renters to make their rent payments. The Inland Empire led the category of households caught up on those payments. Respondents also indicated a high confidence level in their ability to meet their future lease obligations. Among the 15 metros surveyed, the Inland Empire ranked second. Vacancy Rates Rent vacancies have decrease in the Inland Empire to as low as 3.7 percent as rent growth has risen 6.2 …
While the Inland Empire economy was hit hard in 2020, we remain optimistic on the retail sector’s recovery over the coming 12 to 24 months. This market is a benefactor of COVID-19 in that more people than ever before are able to work remotely. This has triggered a migration from urban cores to more spacious and affordable housing in the newer residential communities of Riverside and San Bernardino counties. As the population is anticipated to expand here, retail will directly benefit as residents are more likely to have additional discretionary income to allocate to retail and restaurant venues. In particular, there are many high-growth submarkets to watch within the region. Some of our top areas include Eastvale, Jurupa Valley and Rialto, which have all experienced expansion despite the restrictions and challenges that COVID has created. They are seeing a significant amount of residential growth as they offer strong school districts, expansive parks, affordable housing, proximity to large employment bases and newer retail amenities. A young family demographic is moving to towns like these, and retail users have taken notice. This has resulted in large retail projects like Renaissance Marketplace in Rialto and the Station in Eastvale taking shape. Turning to …
By Richard Lee and J.C. Casillas, NAI Capital Commercial In the fourth quarter of 2020, the Inland Empire industrial market continued to battle the effects of an economy that has so far spent three-fourths of the year under a COVID-19 shutdown. After dipping for several quarters, the average asking rent held steady at $0.72 triple net, down 6.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019. The vacancy rate nudged up 10 basis points from the previous quarter’s record low, down 90 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2019 to 3.9 percent. Pointing to the market’s resilience this time around, vacancy remains 8.4 percentage points lower than the prior peak, which hit in the third quarter of 2009 during the Great Recession. There has been exponential growth in demand for ecommerce due to COVID-19 and related industries, such as packaging and third party logistics. This has resulted in a fast recovery for the Inland Empire industrial market. Soaring demand for warehouse and distribution space has created opportunities for developers. The vacancy rate has increased, due to the 1.9 million square feet of completed construction added to the market in the fourth quarter of 2020. Since the first quarter of this …
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In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector
Orange County offers residents all the key elements of the American dream. Its virtues are numerous and faults few. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics ranks the quality of life in the OC 10th highest among the 378 U.S. metros it reports on, just a half-step behind leaders Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. Orange County is a terrific place to live, but is it a good place to invest? Gauging by observed capitalization rate trends, one may conclude that county apartment properties are highly prized gems. Class A trophy properties trade to going-in yields in the 4.00 percent to 4.10 percent area, and Class B and C garden complexes are typically priced to yields in the mid-4s, all only 25 basis points or so behind Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area comparisons. But judging from transaction velocity, one might draw a different conclusion. Only six Orange County multifamily properties of 50 units or more have changed hands since mid-year 2019, and not a single sale has closed since February. Even by the cautious norms of the moment, this stands out as a market in search of price discovery. Slow transaction velocity can be ascribed, in part, to the prevailing buy and …
By Matthew M. May, President, May Realty Advisors A bird’s-eye look at the Los Angeles metro prior to the coronavirus outbreak reveals that the area was already beginning to soften as it worked its way through more than 1.26 million square feet of new retail space that was delivered to neighborhood and community shopping centers over the past five years. According to REIS, about 35 percent of that, or 443,000 square feet, came online in 2018. Vacancy rates increased every year for the past five years, while averaging about 7.3 percent for the metro area in 2019. Despite the increasing vacancy, we also had quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year growth in asking rents, primarily led by increases in the higher-end neighborhoods. At the street level, quarterly asking rents for neighborhood and community centers averaged about $33.03 for 2019, while increasing about $0.5 per square foot from 2018 to 2019. However, pre-leasing has been weakening over the past few quarters. Discussions in development circles were indicating fewer mixed-use projects in the planning stages with more builders favoring dedicated multifamily builds. Nevertheless, new retail inventory was in the pipeline for this year, with optimism surrounding the evolving retail landscape. All of this was, of …
By Chandler A. Larsen, Principal, Avison Young This year started off where 2019 finished for the Los Angeles office property sector – and that’s red hot! During the first two and a half months of the year, office space absorption was on pace to beat 2019. Rents were steadily increasing past $39.84 per square foot on an annual gross basis, record-high (psf) sales prices were recorded across product types and rising construction costs were complemented by a construction pipeline of more than 8 million square feet of office space. Suddenly, by mid-March, COVID-19 had taken hold in the U.S. and abruptly halted all the momentum the Los Angeles office sector had built up. However, the emergency interest rate cuts proposed by central banks across the globe have flooded markets with liquidity, helping to avoid contagion throughout the financial sector. This, in conjunction with the $170 billion in commercial investor relief included in the current stimulus package, points to the potential for a short downturn. Nevertheless, the jury is still out on just how long and how deep this slowdown will be as previously unimaginable unemployment numbers continue to be reported and economic forecasts are trending in the wrong direction. In …
By Kurt Strasmann, Executive Managing Director, CBRE Industrial properties have been in high demand in recent years both nationally and, particularly, in Southern California and the Greater Los Angeles area. Our region is a strategic hub for goods coming from all over the world, especially Asia, and boasts the necessary infrastructure to store and deliver product regionally and throughout the nation. Greater LA is also a major consumer hub. About 50 percent of product coming through the LA and Long Beach ports remains in the region. Our first-quarter numbers emphasize LA’s strong industrial fundamentals prior to COVID-19 taking effect. These numbers have put the market in a strong position to weather the recession, which we expect to be short. The 1.7 percent overall vacancy rate in the first quarter represented the limited supply and high demand for industrial space within the region. The diverse tenant base has created further market resiliency with occupiers in logistics, food and beverage, entertainment, manufacturing and a broad array of other industries. Going forward during these extraordinary times, we do anticipate an increase in vacancies and decreasing tenant leasing activity through at least the fourth quarter. Until we return to a more normalized state, we need …