Market Reports

In Search of Relative Value in Orange County’s Apartment Sector

by Sarah Daniels September 24, 2020

Orange County offers residents all the key elements of the American dream. Its virtues are numerous and faults few. Indeed, Moody’s Analytics ranks the quality of life in the OC 10th highest among the 378 U.S. metros it reports on, just a half-step behind leaders Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz. Orange County is a terrific place to live, but is it a good place to invest? Gauging by observed capitalization rate trends, one may conclude that county apartment properties are highly prized gems. Class A trophy properties trade to going-in yields in the 4.00 percent to 4.10 percent area, and Class B and C garden complexes are typically priced to yields in the mid-4s, all only 25 basis points or so behind Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area comparisons. But judging from transaction velocity, one might draw a different conclusion. Only six Orange County multifamily properties of 50 units or more have changed hands since mid-year 2019, and not a single sale has closed since February. Even by the cautious norms of the moment, this stands out as a market in search of price discovery. Slow transaction velocity can be ascribed, in part, to the prevailing buy and …

September 24, 2020

California Market Reports Retail Western Western Market Reports

A Hollywood Ending for LA Retail?

by Jeff Shaw August 3, 2020

By Matthew M. May, President, May Realty Advisors A bird’s-eye look at the Los Angeles metro prior to the coronavirus outbreak reveals that the area was already beginning to soften as it worked its way through more than 1.26 million square feet of new retail space that was delivered to neighborhood and community shopping centers over the past five years. According to REIS, about 35 percent of that, or 443,000 square feet, came online in 2018. Vacancy rates increased every year for the past five years, while averaging about 7.3 percent for the metro area in 2019. Despite the increasing vacancy, we also had quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year growth in asking rents, primarily led by increases in the higher-end neighborhoods. At the street level, quarterly asking rents for neighborhood and community centers averaged about $33.03 for 2019, while increasing about $0.5 per square foot from 2018 to 2019. However, pre-leasing has been weakening over the past few quarters. Discussions in development circles were indicating fewer mixed-use projects in the planning stages with more builders favoring dedicated multifamily builds. Nevertheless, new retail inventory was in the pipeline for this year, with optimism surrounding the evolving retail landscape. All of this was, of …

August 3, 2020

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

L.A.’s Office Market Pauses after Robust Start to 2020

by Jeff Shaw July 22, 2020

By Chandler A. Larsen, Principal, Avison Young This year started off where 2019 finished for the Los Angeles office property sector – and that’s red hot! During the first two and a half months of the year, office space absorption was on pace to beat 2019. Rents were steadily increasing past $39.84 per square foot on an annual gross basis, record-high (psf) sales prices were recorded across product types and rising construction costs were complemented by a construction pipeline of more than 8 million square feet of office space. Suddenly, by mid-March, COVID-19 had taken hold in the U.S. and abruptly halted all the momentum the Los Angeles office sector had built up. However, the emergency interest rate cuts proposed by central banks across the globe have flooded markets with liquidity, helping to avoid contagion throughout the financial sector. This, in conjunction with the $170 billion in commercial investor relief included in the current stimulus package, points to the potential for a short downturn. Nevertheless, the jury is still out on just how long and how deep this slowdown will be as previously unimaginable unemployment numbers continue to be reported and economic forecasts are trending in the wrong direction. In …

July 22, 2020

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Greater LA’s Industrial Real Estate Enters a New World

by Jeff Shaw July 1, 2020

By Kurt Strasmann, Executive Managing Director, CBRE Industrial properties have been in high demand in recent years both nationally and, particularly, in Southern California and the Greater Los Angeles area. Our region is a strategic hub for goods coming from all over the world, especially Asia, and boasts the necessary infrastructure to store and deliver product regionally and throughout the nation. Greater LA is also a major consumer hub. About 50 percent of product coming through the LA and Long Beach ports remains in the region. Our first-quarter numbers emphasize LA’s strong industrial fundamentals prior to COVID-19 taking effect. These numbers have put the market in a strong position to weather the recession, which we expect to be short. The 1.7 percent overall vacancy rate in the first quarter represented the limited supply and high demand for industrial space within the region. The diverse tenant base has created further market resiliency with occupiers in logistics, food and beverage, entertainment, manufacturing and a broad array of other industries. Going forward during these extraordinary times, we do anticipate an increase in vacancies and decreasing tenant leasing activity through at least the fourth quarter. Until we return to a more normalized state, we need …

July 1, 2020

Fourth-Street-Distribution-Center-Rancho-Cucamonga-CA

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Inland Empire Continues to Be an Industrial Market Leader

by Jeff Shaw May 26, 2020

By David Burback, Senior Vice President and Managing Director, Kidder Mathews A 1.4-million-square-foot distribution center in Rancho Cucamonga that was formerly owned by Big Lots, recently sold for $48 per square foot on the land value. The new owner plans to replace the existing building with a new state-of-the-art distribution center. By every metric, the Inland Empire continues to be the national leader in the industrial real estate sector. The area enjoys the advantage of being just 40 minutes from the two largest and most active ports in the country. Driven by the strategic expansion of supply chains and the rapid emergence of ecommerce, the Inland Empire remains the most robust industrial market in the country. Annual new construction is approaching 25 million square feet, and the absorption of space is in equal proportion. Rents have increased by 65 percent, sales prices have increased by 80 percent and land prices have more than doubled over the past five years, according to our research. There seems to be some moderation from these double-digit, year-over-year increases as we move into 2020. Yet, the market remains active on all fronts – user, developer and investor alike. The most active sector of the industrial …

May 26, 2020

California Market Reports Office Western Western Market Reports

The Changing Face of the Inland Empire Office Market

by Jeff Shaw May 11, 2020

An hour east of downtown Los Angeles, the Inland Empire office market contains about 25 million square feet of office product in San Bernardino and Riverside counties. This market has undergone tremendous growth over 10 years, and a more diverse stable of occupiers has moved in since the area was decimated by the housing crisis of 2007. At times overlooked, the Inland Empire’s office market is more than just the low-cost alternative to Southern California’s LA and Orange counties. With a sector vacancy rate of just 9 percent (lower than neighboring submarkets) the Inland Empire’s economic engine is supporting one of the fastest job growth areas in the country over the past decade, boasting an unemployment rate of only 3.6 percent. The fourth quarter of 2019 witnessed the first speculative general office building development in more than eight years. Average asking rates have also increased to $2.05 per square foot, the highest level since 2009. With sustained positive absorption and continued rising rental rates, this area has shifted to become a landlord market over the past couple years and, with this, concessions will continue to evaporate. Education and health services, government, and professional and business services have all seen recent …

May 11, 2020

California Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

The Creative Trend Continues in Orange County

by Taylor Williams February 1, 2020

Orange County continues to be a diverse marketplace for commercial real estate as we reflect back on 2019. Thanks to a growing and varied workforce made up of highly skilled and educated workers — with tech and life sciences at the forefront of transactions — the county’s economy remains strong. Looking ahead, Orange County’s local market is very resilient, despite the fact that economy leasing volume has slowed as tenants are focusing on space-efficient decisions. This market continues to remain stable thanks to a number of existing buildings that have been or are currently under renovation to meet the demand of companies that are branching out from traditional office space. A few of these repositioned properties include the Launch, the Met, 2722 Michelson Drive and the Press, which is currently under construction in Costa Mesa. Overall vacancy in the county has been 13.8 percent, while overall asking rental rates are $2.95 per square foot (full-service gross) with Class A rates sitting at $3.23 per square foot. Some submarkets are home to the majority of this activity, including the Airport area and South Orange County due to ideal geographic locations for businesses and new office development. Of course, fundamentals vary by …

February 1, 2020

California Market Reports Multifamily Western Western Market Reports

Orange County’s Multifamily Market Continues to Grow

by Taylor Williams January 31, 2020

Orange County’s multifamily housing market remained exceptionally strong throughout 2019. The average asking rent closed the quarter at $2,055 per unit, up 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2018. This was the highest asking rent on record, up 34.5 percent from the prior peak reached in the third quarter of 2008. The Central submarket saw the largest year-over-year rental rate increase, with the asking rent there rising 3.8 percent to $1,920 per unit. This quarter, the Irvine submarket also saw its average asking rent adjust a bit, down 0.7 percent from the prior quarter to $2,446 per unit as existing inventory competed with new construction added to the market. However, the average rent in Irvine is up 3.2 percent from last year. Completed construction has pushed vacancy up. The total vacancy rate in Orange County this quarter registered 4.8 percent, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, steady from the fourth quarter of 2018. Four significant projects totaling 2,567 units were completed this quarter. This includes Promenade at Irvine Spectrum with 1,781 units; SkyLoft, a 388-unit development in Irvine; the Charlie Orange County, a 228-unit complex in Santa Ana; and the Murphy, a 170-unit complex in Irvine. Annual …

January 31, 2020

California Industrial Market Reports Western Western Market Reports

Orange County’s Industrial Market Stays Healthy Going Into 2020

by Taylor Williams January 25, 2020

Demand for Orange County industrial space remained healthy in 2019 as vacancy rates ended another year in record-low territory at 2.9 percent, fueled by a strong second-half net absorption. The movement in the second half of 2019 was largely a result of the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low, which provided assurance for buyers that had been on the fence. The attractive interest rates have led to steady price increases, however, adaptation has been slow. The average time on the market has increased by roughly 30 to 60 days from 2018. Many buyers also struggled with post-close deferred maintenance. With the typical industrial building in Orange County being construction in 1985, buyers are often challenged with renovation costs adding to their bottom lines. Meanwhile, landlords in 2019 became more conservative in rent demands as average gains in asking full-service rents fell to 4.2 percent countywide, compared to 4.9 percent in 2018. Leasing activity remained steady with an average asking rate across Orange County of about $1 per square foot, triple net. A handful of notable new construction projects advanced in 2019. In the fourth quarter, 10 buildings totaling nearly 1.2 million square feet were completed in North Orange County, …

January 25, 2020

California Market Reports Retail Western Western Market Reports

Orange County’s Retail Transaction Volume, Consistency Will Continue in 2020

by Taylor Williams January 24, 2020

Retail transaction volume was strong in January as the shorter 2019 holiday season created a tight window for year-end closings, residual transactions pushed into the New Year and gave 2020 an early jump on what should be another great year. Total transactions in 2020 should continue to build from the big start. The massive transaction volume from the second half of 2019 — more specifically, a glut of fourth-quarter sellers — has produced a wave of investors needing to complete 1031 exchange purchases in the second and third quarters of 2020. By comparison, 2019 featured a slower than typical start due to a combination of elevated interest rates and residual investor hangover from the equity markets debacle of the fourth quarter of 2018. Our sense is that 2020 will benefit from enormous velocity, driven by private investor demand and seller willingness to meet market expectations in favor of quicker transactions as fears of the late cycle, election turmoil and international unrest grow. Further evidence of seller’s alignment with market expectations, trailing available data has shown the asking price to sale ratio narrowed from nearly 12 percent in first-quarter 2019 to 3 percent in fourth-quarter 2019. This brought the bid/ask more …

January 24, 2020

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