San Diego continues to exhibit very strong fundamentals with a healthy and diversified economy, as well as a continued shortage of housing supply. The unemployment rate of 3.3 percent is below both the California and national unemployment rate. Tourism, biotech, healthcare, education, military/defense, drone manufacturing, business services, software and other high-tech industries have made San Diego a magnet for venture capital and other business investment, creating the jobs of the future. Amazon, Apple and several other high-profile technology companies have also announced expansions in San Diego. The region attracted $744 million in venture capital this past year alone. Local housing policies, which have been unfriendly to new development, have made it very expensive to build, thereby perpetuating the shortage of housing. This dynamic has continued to bode well for multifamily investment in the region. CBRE’s Apartment Market Report for the end of the second quarter illustrates the following year-on-year changes from 2018: • The vacancy rate moved 9 basis points to 3.6 percent • Rental rates increased by 2.9 percent • New construction deliveries dropped by 14 percent • Sales volume included 95 transactions with a total dollar volume of $476 million (compared to 32 sales transactions last year that …
Market Reports
San Francisco has been a boom-and-bust market since the Gold Rush. The current intense scrutiny of the yield curve, combined with the stock market’s recent erratic behavior, has sent warnings of the next looming recession. Just how will this affect the office market? Fortunately for the Bay Area, not much. Today, several key factors insulate San Francisco from a severe downturn, unlike past cycles. Among them are Proposition M and a concentration of venture capital, highly skilled talent and some of the world’s largest companies. Since 1986, Proposition M has limited the amount of office development the city will authorize in any given year. The program aims to guard against typical boom-and-bust cycles. The San Francisco office market only includes 85 million square feet, as opposed to Manhattan or Houston, for example, which comprise 400 million and 240 million square feet, respectively. Manhattan currently has 12.4 million square feet of office space under construction, while San Francisco has 3 million square feet in the pipeline. The entitlement limit under Prop M has been reached, meaning no additional new projects can be approved until October when another 950,000 square feet will be allocated for the next year. At first glance, these …
Northern California’s multifamily market has a strong development pipeline right now, but after 2020, it drops off dramatically. There is an increasingly toxic political climate in California, with measures like AB 1482 and the revival of Prop 10, which will likely throw a wrench in any planned development beyond 2020. Some of the most notable projects currently underway include Brooklyn Basin’s Orion in Oakland. The first 241 units out of a planned 3,700 have been completed. Brooklyn Basin is a $1.5 billion project that is reshaping the Oakland waterfront and transforming the area into a new, vibrant neighborhood. In San Jose, the area around the proposed Google downtown campus is also on everyone’s radar. The majority of current Bay Area development is concentrated in Oakland and Santa Clara County, with the latter currently experiencing a 4.57 percent vacancy rate. Market fundamentals, including proximity to jobs and a more welcoming environment toward multifamily development have attracted developers and renters alike to these two places. Developers Carmel Partner, Hanover and Holland have been particularly active in Oakland, as of late. Current conditions in Northern California have produced a tenant’s market, with an abundance of new units coming online at once. We are …
Northern California’s retail real estate market is undergoing somewhat of a seismic shift. Traditional shopping centers, such as Serramonte Mall in Daly City and Hillsdale Mall in San Mateo, are seeing name-brand retailers like Payless Shoesource, Gymboree and Charlotte Russe closing stores. This has dictated a recalibration in leasing strategy. , These “prime” retail spaces are often successfully backfilled by business and lifestyle tenants like professional service firms, fitness centers, coffee shops, restaurants and entertainment centers — the sort of businesses that can regain foot traffic. This trend toward more lifestyle and entertainment tenants — often called experiential retail — can also be seen in the region’s vibrant market for new mixed-use developments. Multifamily communities in San Francisco, Cupertino, Santa Clara and Oakland will be delivered in the coming months. Many of these projects are urban infill, transit-oriented developments, which naturally offer strong street-level retail locations. In this setting, experiential retail works well for apartment residents and local foot traffic. Nearly 6 million square feet of new office has been proposed in downtown San Jose, which is driving strong retail interest from new restaurants and service retail. Vacancy rates for retail properties throughout the Bay Area have ticked up slightly, …
Class A product is going off the market fast in Northern California’s industrial basin. Older product is sitting on the market longer, while mid-sized spaces are still the East Bay’s bread and butter. Net absorption has been pegged on a negative trend due to new construction and the volume of deals slowing down. Certain products are giving concessions to compete with newer product, while some landlords are trying to push the market limits to see how heavy tenant’s pockets really are. Several significant leases were signed in the East Bay during the second quarter of 2019. The largest deal of the quarter belonged to Service West, a furniture installer that signed a renewal and expansion totaling 252,021 square feet in San Leandro at 2350 Williams Street. Javelin Logistics, a logistics and distribution provider, also inked a new lease for 134,279 square feet at 7091 Central Ave. in Newark. Confluent Medical had the largest research and development deal of the second quarter, totaling 65,385 square feet. The material science tech company renewed at 47513 Westinghouse Drive in Fremont. The most significant investment sale of the second quarter occurred at 44100 and 44200 Osgood Road in Fremont. This is where Western Digital …
The Los Angeles office market ended the first quarter with the average asking rent steady over the prior quarter. However, at $3.20 per square foot, the average asking rent remains the highest level on record, up 4.2 percent over the first quarter of 2018 and 15 percent above the prior peak reached in 2008. While the vacancy rate this quarter increased 30 basis points over the prior quarter, it is down 10 basis points from Q1 2018 at 10.6 percent. This is about where it was pre-recession in 2004. This rise in vacancy was the result of several large move-outs, including about 200,000 square feet in the South Bay and 50,000 square feet in the Central office markets. Leasing volume fell to 5.8 million square feet, down 19.6 percent from the prior quarter and 7.9 percent from Q1 2018. The rate of job growth is having some impact on the office market. Los Angeles County remains near full employment with the unemployment rate at 4.6 percent, one of the lowest rates on record. The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC) notes the county added 59,000 jobs in 2018. The latest LAEDC jobs forecast points to a strong and steady …
One fact is very clear as we assess the retail landscape and take note of the variety of retail activities taking place: food and beverage (F&B) and dining out continue to reshape consumer trends. These trends are heavily influencing retail activities throughout the region, especially in the Downtown Los Angeles submarket. The market continues to show great activity in F&B as landlords look to absorb vacancies with more food uses by creating unique dining experiences and take-out options for today’s consumer. This new demand has been the catalyst for the increase in commissary kitchens and restaurateurs leasing spaces for delivery models that cater to the growing, app-based delivery services. CBRE’s latest report, the Food in Demand Series, highlights the momentum of F&B. This extends to fast-casual dining, prepared dining options offered in grocery stores, and as stand-alone offerings in mixed-use settings, such as residential, creative office and hospitality projects. Per the report, consumer spending in restaurants amongst Millennials, Generation X and Baby Boomers has outpaced spending on grocery items. This is a significant shift for consumers. For this reason, we will likely see landlords maintain a focus on F&B as a means to bring value to their assets and create …
The Los Angeles County industrial market continues to see record low vacancy rates, which are hovering in the 1 percent range with a conservative forecast calling for rents to increase by 7.5 percent in 2019. Ecommerce companies and third-party logistics providers (3PLs) — many of which support ecommerce operations — will continue to be dominant market players, according to NKF’s Los Angeles industrial market report for Q1 2019. In North Los Angeles, we are seeing multiple submarkets, including those in the San Fernando Valley, Ventura County, Conejo Valley, Kern County, and the Santa Clarita areas, becoming more connected than ever before. These areas and projects are now “connecting the dots” between all the submarkets as the opportunities for industrial space in Los Angeles’ core markets become increasingly more competitive and scarce. For example, occupiers that have been in the 130 million-square-foot San Fernando Valley industrial market for decades are now needing more space. However, the opportunities for larger, modern product are just not there. The majority of industrial product is less than 100,000 square feet with 16- to 24-foot clear heights. This can work for users like cosmetics, entertainment and aerospace, but others need more modern features to streamline operations. …
The City of Los Angeles checks all the boxes for an excellent apartment owner environment. This includes a booming economy, expensive housing, meaningful job growth, and an abundance of Millennials and professionals. Los Angeles enjoys an immense and fast-growing high-tech industry, especially within the media, tech, aerospace and advanced transportation industry with the likes of Netflix, Google, SpaceX and Northrop Grumman. Los Angeles County houses the nation’s largest international trade industry, the nation’s largest manufacturing base, and an increasing amount of venture capital investment startups. A growing economy is almost always paired with escalating housing costs, and Los Angeles is no exception. More than ever, residents are driven to rental housing as homeownership is prohibitively expensive and not conducive to job mobility and flexibility. Last year was a banner year for region’s apartment sector. The average market rent in the Los Angeles MSA has seen extremely impressive growth, increasing an average of 5.3 percent annually since the turn of the century, according to Axiometrics. This remarkable trajectory has been spurred by the extremely tight rental market, with annual occupancies averaging between 94 percent and 97 percent. Such indicators allow landlords to be extremely discerning when vetting tenants, which, in turn, …
From its near-perfect weather, parks and beaches to its commerce-friendly environment and well-educated workforce, Orange County has plenty of attractions to offer residents, businesses and multifamily investors. Add to that list well-paying jobs in the expanding professional and business services, and tech and healthcare sectors, and you can see why demand for housing in the county is on the rise. Job growth has pushed the unemployment rate to below 3 percent, a level not seen since the fourth quarter of 1999. The strengthening economy has created a tremendous tailwind for apartment demand in a metro where the cost of a single-family home is out of reach for most households. As a result, Orange County’s multifamily vacancy rate stood at the extremely low level of 3.8 percent at the end of the third quarter. The low level of apartment vacancy has also been positively affected by a change in the rate of new construction. After several years of increased supply, the amount of new housing in the pipeline has begun to decrease, having reached the apex of the current cycle in 2017. This year and next, the county will receive about 4,000 new apartments, down from the more than 4,800 units …