The Orange County office market continues to remain healthy with an unemployment rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2018. This is down from 3.2 percent 12 months prior. The driving industry sectors for Orange County that occupy a large portion of office space include financial services, information technology, logistics and healthcare. We are currently seeing vacancy rates around 11.7 percent, which is about a 10 basis point increase from the second quarter of this year. The main reason for this increase has been momentum in completed construction projects with more than 2.2 million square feet that has been delivered over the past 12 months. At the mid-year point of 2018, more than 808,000 square feet of office space was under construction — the majority of which was speculative. The largest office projects under construction right now include Flight at Tustin Legacy in Tustin and the Quad at Discovery Business Center in Irvine Spectrum. There are four Class A, institutional-quality office projects currently under construction in the county that total nearly 1.3 million square feet — 75 percent of which is pre-leased to tenants. All this bodes well for the continued confidence in the Orange County market. We …
The industrial market in Orange County remains strong as demand continues to far outweigh supply. Vacancy throughout the region remains at historic lows, staying below 3 percent for the 13th consecutive quarter through the third quarter of this year. The largest submarket, North Orange County, is also the tightest submarket with a 1.2 percent overall vacancy. As an infill market, we do not anticipate significant increases in vacancy within the Orange County industrial marketplace for the foreseeable future, despite the new developments recently delivered, planned or under construction. There are several significant industrial development projects in various stages in the county. This is welcome news by users seeking to upgrade and expand into modern facilities while maintaining local operations. The first is a 30-acre redevelopment site in Huntington Beach that was purchased by Sares Regis Group earlier this year. Sares Regis is expected to begin construction shortly, with plans to deliver more than 600,000 square feet of new product in late 2019. Shea Properties recently began construction on Shea Business Center in Santa Ana, which is planned for nearly 530,000 square feet and a completion date in 2019. Western Realco is also nearing completion of Beckman Business Center, a 900,000-square-foot, …
The Inland Empire continues to be one of the most dynamic industrial real estate markets in the country from both a user and investor perspective. Rent growth remains exceptionally strong, boasting a growth rate of more than 50 percent in the past five years, with a 10.1 percent increase in 2017. Although current average asking rents are at record highs, they remain at a 40 percent discount when compared to the neighboring infill markets of Los Angeles and Orange County, indicating ample room for further growth. Vacancy remains unchanged at 3.7 percent, despite 20 million square feet of deliveries last year, a testament to the market’s unrivaled user demand. Leasing momentum continues to outpace supply, particularly for recently constructed distribution space. This is demonstrated by the 46 percent pre-lease rate for deliveries greater than 1 million square feet last year. The Inland Empire’s proximity to world-class transportation infrastructure, combined with a relatively large supply of recently delivered distribution facilities, creates a highly optimistic future outlook when considering the projected exponential growth of e-commerce. The Inland Empire’s e-commerce primacy of location as it relates to underlying market fundamentals are attracting best-in-class domestic and global capital. This is creating a hyper-competitive buyer …
The Inland Empire office market got off to a slow start in 2018, continuing a trend of positive momentum with little excitement. The average asking rent registered $1.81 per square foot, down 3.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 and $0.01 below the first quarter of 2017. Preliminary sales and lease volumes are off 39.1 percent over the prior year. However, the Inland Empire is seeing one of the lowest vacancy rates since 2007, with more than 108,000 square feet of new construction added to the market this quarter. As of the first quarter of 2018, vacancy was 7.9 percent, down 30 basis points over the quarter and 90 basis points below last year at this time. Nine projects totaling 201,671 square feet are under construction, with the largest being Rady Children’s Medical Plaza at 60,000 square feet. Much of the new growth in the office sector is being driven by the healthcare industry. Office medical space comprised more than half of the space under construction, as the education and health services sector employment has grown by 4 percent between January 2017 and January 2018. This has accounted for 8,800 of the 13,500 new jobs in the office-occupying sectors. …
Orange County’s well-diversified and growing economy, coupled with its high quality of life, attract residents nationally and internationally to the region. Prohibitive home pricing also intensifies the high barrier to home ownership, further supporting overall apartment fundamentals in the Orange County market. Developers are targeting urban centers where they can transform the areas with Class A rentals. Anaheim’s Platinum Triangle, the Disney Resort, Convention Center Complex and surrounding area are undergoing an infusion of more than $5 billion that is redefining the area as a highly urbanized residential, entertainment and business hub. A similar transformation is happening at the Irvine Business Complex (IBC). In addition to these clusters, about 19,000 units are scheduled to come online over the next few years, particularly in the Class A product category. Rents in Orange County rose 4.8 percent year-over-year through January, outpacing the 4.6 percent national growth rate. Renter demand remains elevated, fueled by a rapidly expanding economy and population gains. Large companies and startups alike are drawn to the market’s highly educated workforce as nearly 25 percent of residents have at least a bachelor’s degree. This reinforces the foundation for the multifamily sector’s rent growth in both “renter by necessity” (students/young professionals/blue-collar/subsidized …
Orange County’s innovative office economy continues to be supported by healthy underlying demand drivers. Tech, financial and business services companies continue to provide a strong employment base that was not readily present during the last cycle. Major colleges and universities such as Chapman and UC Irvine provide a steady pool of job-seeking professionals. The climate, lifestyle and general quality of life also continues to attract top employment talent from across the country. Office vacancy is trending downward with rental rates increasing beyond pre-recession levels. As the health of the office market solidifies, notable developers like the Irvine Company, Trammell Crow Co. and Lincoln Property have recently commenced or completed construction on formidable office projects. These new office projects are noteworthy in that they were started on a speculative basis. This is a new trend in the market that would have been unheard of less than three years ago. This is a strong indication of the increased confidence by lenders, equity sources and developers in the Orange County office market’s recovery. Irvine Company has become the dominant source of speculative development due to considerable new development. This company was ahead of the spec curve when it built the first sizeable inventory …
Los Angeles County is facing a significant lack of housing product — an issue that can’t be resolved any time soon. With the fight to limit new development, it is a very uphill and challenging battle that is unfortunate for the economy, business and, most of all, residents. An influx of about 160,000 new residents moved to the county from 2010 through 2015, but we have only seen upwards of 25,000 new housing units built during that same time frame. The demand drivers are extremely significant for new housing, but supply constraints like zoning and regulations are preventing an adequate supply. Additionally, with an unemployment rate currently at a historical low of about 4 percent, projections for housing demand over the next decade all point to a severe shortage in this growing region. Despite all the news about companies moving out of state to enjoy less expensive business costs as well as more affordable housing for their employees, this region, along with California as a whole, continues to see a population increase. Even with all this being said, the multifamily sector has and will continue to be the darling of the commercial real estate industry as it’s fueled by a …
With limited inventory and historically high values and rental rates, it’s safe to say the Los Angeles industrial market is enjoying an all-time high. There are several factors contributing to ongoing strength in the market, including a healthy appetite for acquisitions, strong tenant activity and creative solutions to adapt to supply constraints and maximize ROI. Industrial buyers continue to be active in Los Angeles, even with tightening availability and compressing cap rates. The fact is, there is still tremendous value to be found in this gateway city. Interest rates remain low, and those looking to acquire properties know that the sooner they buy, the better. Conversely, sellers are not especially eager to dispose of properties in the current market, based primarily on the challenge in finding acquisition-worthy assets. Specifically, owners seeking 1031 exchanges are finding it increasingly difficult to identify properties to trade into. That said, values are high enough that some owners are selling and choosing to simply pay taxes on capital gains or look to other markets for product to acquire. For example, Daum recently helped a seller dispose of a property in Los Angeles and reinvest those funds into an asset in Cleveland, Ohio, at a 7 …
The Inland Empire multifamily market will retain its solid foundation of positivity this year as the economy again provides a healthy supply of new jobs and freshly formed households seek apartments to rent. The number of new multifamily units scheduled for delivery is a fraction of what it was last year, and this will place downward pressure on vacancy. Tightening vacancy will support another year of above-trend rent growth. Strong job growth in wholesale trade, government and transportation and warehousing positions has drawn many new employees to the Inland Empire in recent years. The number of 20- to 34-year-olds, who typically favor rental housing, has steadily increased. Growth in wholesale trade, government and warehousing will continue to attract Millennials in 2017, and the region’s employers are expected to add 27,500 new jobs overall. The Inland Empire’s employment boom has led to an increase in household formation, which has stimulated new multifamily construction. Developers fruitfully delivered 2,600 new units to the market in 2016. This exuberance, however, may well have been the peak for the current real estate cycle. This year, the projected number of apartment completions is just 500. This much more measured level of development will be quickly absorbed …
There was a big shake-up in the big box world with long-time sporting goods staples Sports Chalet and Sports Authority shuttering stores across the county. Macy’s in Mission Valley is also closing, while Nordstrom is shutting down in downtown. Interestingly, Hobby Lobby and the large pet stores seem to be buffered by the big box epidemic. In Chula Vista, two long-time vacant big boxes were finally chopped up into four spaces to accommodate the mid-sized box users. The good news is that big, “boring” boxes are being replaced by big “experiences.” Experiences, whether in a larger property or within a specific business, continue to be important for retailers and restaurants. Landlords across the county are making large investments to create experiences that will attract consumers. At the top end of the spectrum we have seen Westfield finally pulling the trigger on a massive remodel of the UTC mall, which will include more than 100 new stores and restaurants. Rouse purchased the Carlsbad mall from Westfield and has seemed to follow a similar business plan with its revamp, adding an exciting lineup of restaurants along the outside of the property. Liberty Station in Point Loma is coming into its prime with, …