The Orange County apartment market is currently enjoying strong fundamentals that comes from several sources. These include robust renter demand, strong local economy and historic low interest rates, all of which make for a perfect storm. As more renters enter the market due to strong employment numbers, it gives way to new household formation. While home prices in the region escalate, more would-be homebuyers are being priced out of the market and forced to remain in the rental pool, further driving competition for suitable housing and pushing rents to new levels. Orange County developers are responding to a growing demand for new multifamily housing developments, many of which are Class A projects targeting high-end tenant bases and price points. Many older properties, such as Class C or C+ buildings, are enjoying the blow back from these new developments when tenants seek out lower rents when compared to top-tier projects, resulting in robust rent increases. Investors looking to place capital in today’s multifamily market are taking advantage of strong fundamentals and cheap debt. Transaction volume has increased more than 10 percent in the past 12 months, with notable sales volume in the northern end of Orange County. Confident that upward rent …
The Orange County office sector continues to see falling vacancy rates, positive net absorption and rising asking rates. Orange County has beaten the U.S. national average for office vacancy since the fourth quarter of 2014. Office vacancy fell to 8.9 percent in the third quarter, down from 9.4 percent in the second quarter and 9.9 percent in the first quarter of 2016. We continue to see positive net absorption to the tune of 626,900 square feet, but that number is down from 730,844 square feet in the second quarter, a difference of 15,044 square feet. Asking rates continue to trend upward from $27.61 per square foot to $27.73 per square foot annually. Class A buildings lead the way, with asking rates averaging $32.89 per square foot. Class B and C buildings come in at $26.28 per square foot and $21.57 per square foot, respectively. These are all good signs for the new development coming to market in 2017. One of the more notable projects to soon come to fruition is 400 Spectrum Center Drive in Irvine. This 466,696-square-foot, Class A office tower is expected to be complete in the third quarter of 2017. This will be the sister tower to …
San Francisco and San Mateo counties boast above average employment numbers and wages and have been strong all through the current business cycle. Over the past four quarters ending in June, organizations in these counties, along with Marin County, (henceforth referred to as “the metro,”) have created 30,750 new jobs. This expansion of the metro’s labor force by 2.9 percent far exceeds the national average over the same time period. Businesses are expected to create 40,000 new positions this year and employment growth will reach 3.7 percent. Hence, the metro’s economy has created substantial demand for housing and apartments are leading the way, as the high cost of single-family homes, rigorous regulation, and the infill nature within the metro has constrained deliveries during previous years in the cycle. There are multiple major projects that will boost the rate of completions significantly above previous years in the cycle. Builder activity will surge to a multi-decade high with 6,440 apartments slated for delivery, exceeding the 1,488 units brought to market in 2015. The majority of completions will target the South of Market (SoMA) and South San Mateo County submarkets. Vacancy rate in the metro will register a 110-basis-point increase in 2016, rising …
Financial markets worldwide have seen dramatic volatility in this past 12 months. The Bay Area economy and new hiring have cooled, while the San Francisco housing and condo markets have started to normalize after four feverishly overheated years. We are hearing about a big jump in apartment vacancy rates, with more apartments for rent than we’ve seen in many years just as rental rates begin to decline from recent all-time peaks. As would be expected, preliminary indicators show a transition to a cooler market when it comes to apartment building sales activity. However, as illustrated in the charts below, we haven’t seen any significant changes in the statistics. The second half of 2016 will undoubtedly provide more insight regarding the speed and scale of any market condition changes. San Francisco multifamily assets that contained more than five units experienced a plateau in cap rates year over year between 2015 and 2016. However, this same product experienced an increase in dollars per square foot, price per unit and average sale prices. The politics of new home development in San Francisco are not for the weak of heart. There are vocal disagreements between neighborhood and homeowner associations, developers, affordable housing advocates, tenant’s …
The retail market in Los Angeles is demonstrating exponential growth. Rents are going up, cap rates are going down and occupancy is soaring. Naturally, as lease prices rise, so do sale prices. As such, it is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to find opportunities where substantial rent growth is possible. Tenant competition is also fierce, and landlords are benefitting from extremely high demand throughout the market. Competition Abounds It’s only natural that retailers are competing over space as occupancy rises. One trend that has emerged in Los Angeles is competition among not only direct competitors, but indirect competitors as well. For example, a small grocer might compete with a Ross Dress 4 Less for the same location. Fueling this competition is an increase in large national retailers seeking out smaller urban spaces in downtown areas. Target, for example, is opening a store in LA’s Koreatown on Vermont and 6th streets at the base of a high-rise apartment building. When national soft goods chains open in urban hubs, there will be an evolution of retail surrounding those stores. Smaller discount stores and mom-and-pop retailers will likely suffer, which will lead to vacancies that tend to open the doors for new specialty …
The San Diego retail market had another positive quarter, which built on the strength of the local economy. Strong job growth and low unemployment led to positive net absorption and a spike in sales activities. The unemployment rate decreased across the board. San Diego posted a 4.9 percent rate, a post-recession low for overall unemployment. This is the first time San Diego unemployment has been sub-5 percent since the beginning of 2008. Local San Diego retail employment has been steadily increasing by 2.4 percent over the past five years, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors. Annual growth for the next five years, however, is expected to be relatively flat. Despite the lack of space, there have been a few construction deliveries. Most of the current retail construction in San Diego is from mixed-use development and property renovations. Westfield plans to spend $500 million to expand its center at UTC. It will also spend $300 million in Carlsbad where it plans intends to transform an indoor mall into an open-air center. Regional malls are leading the trend, and smaller centers like Flower Hill Promenade and Del Mar Heights Town Center are keeping up with them. One of the most significant signings this …
The industrial market in Los Angeles County is extremely tight and shows no signs of letting up as the trend for conversion of industrial property to creative office space by tech and media industries is very prevalent. Many industrial property owners either sell their assets and realize major equity gains with the new buyer planning a conversion, or choose to convert it to creative office themselves, garnering two to four times the rental rate for creative space. The vacancy rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015 was parallel to that of the last quarter of 2014. To give some perspective, the downward trend of industrial vacancy has continued since the second quarter of 2013 when vacancy posted at a 5 percent rate. Additionally, the majority of larger industrial development in the region is build-to-suit product, which has virtually no impact on vacancy. The Downtown Los Angeles industrial market continues this trend of industrial property conversion to creative office. The Arts District is ground zero for this. While the rejuvenation and gentrification of Downtown is a welcome sight, the industrial users are now having to relocate, seeking other spaces throughout the LA basin. Many of these users are …
Improvement in apartment fundamentals has remained strong and is expected to continue over the next two quarters. The unemployment rate in Los Angeles County was 7.6 percent in March 2015, which represents a 100 basis point decrease from the same period last year. Supported by steady job growth, more than 108,000 new jobs are forecast for Los Angeles County in 2015, representing a 2.6 percent improvement over last year’s performance. A significant amount of units are currently under development and more are expected to come on line later this year. Issuance for about 7,446 multifamily units is forecast for 2015, and issuance is expected to rise to more than 17,000 units in 2016 and 2017 with the anticipated absorption of about 11,800 units over that same period. That said, developers are likely to relax their efforts to obtain new permits into the latter half of 2015 based on an expected modest uptick in vacancy. Currently standing at 3.2 percent, the overall vacancy rate will likely increase to 3.5 percent by year-end. The average year-over-year rent increased about 2.5 percent depending on the individual submarket. The greatest level of appreciation was represented in the South Glendale/Highland Park submarket where asking rents …
San Diego’s core commercial office markets continue to tighten. Less than 1 million square feet was added last year, while more than 1.2 million square feet was absorbed. In 2014, construction commenced on the first speculative high-rise office project since Hines’ La Jolla Commons I in 2008. The Irvine Company plans to deliver a 306,000-square-foot, Class A development called One La Jolla Center in UTC this year. This project follows on the heels of the adjacent 415,000-square-foot, build-to-suit for LPL. This activity points to a strengthening market as developers, equity partners and lenders believe the benefit outweighs the risk of speculative development. Sorrento Mesa also received 410,000 square feet of new office space at 10001 Pacific Heights Blvd. last year that was pre-committed by owner-user Qualcomm. The overall vacancy rate for the core markets in three San Diego regions (Downtown, Central and North County) was reduced to 11.5 percent by year’s end, indicating a tight market for users. Rent spikes can be anticipated when vacancy rates shrink to single digits. This should occur this year in submarkets like the Uptown area (5.5 percent), Poway (5.4 percent), Rancho Bernardo (6.8 percent), North Beach Cities (5.7 percent), Torrey Pines (8.0 percent), Sorrento …
The San Diego multi-housing market is poised for significant growth in 2015. The third quarter of last year recorded 4.5 percent annual rent growth countywide, the highest rent growth numbers seen in more than a decade, according to CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA). Vacancy, meanthile, remained at 2.7 percent, the lowest level seen since 2007. Countywide average rents are at $1,548, an 8 percent premium over the 2008 peak levels. CBRE EA found that UTC/La Jolla remains the top rental market in the county, with overall rents averaging $1,958. UTC also witnessed the second-highest rent growth in the county last year, at 7.3 percent. UTC/La Jolla solidifies its position as the county’s top rental market due to strong resident demographics, planned infrastructure improvements and the trolley addition, Westfield’s expansion, and the presence of several major employers, as well as the University of San Diego and the biotech cluster of Torrey Pines. Downtown has emerged as San Diego’s hottest development market, with Class A projects now commanding rents of $2,652, or $2.98 per square foot. There were 929 units in four projects added last year, bringing the total inventory in Downtown to 4,840 units in 23 buildings (100-plus+ units, market-rate only). …