Market Reports

— By John R. Read — Orange County’s retail market continues to shine, mirroring its famously  consistent weather. Despite challenges like persistent interest rate fluctuations, capital markets volatility and signs of a slowing economy, the region remains a beacon for retailers and investors alike. This resilience has cemented Orange County as one of the strongest retail markets in Southern California and the nation. As 2023 drew to a close, a notable drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to below 4 percent and signals from the Federal Reserve of potential rate cuts in the upcoming year fueled optimism among real estate investors. However, 2024 has continued to see volatility, with yields reaching mid-4 percent levels and no rate cuts yet implemented. This environment has impacted Orange County’s retail investment sales volume, which saw a 29 percent drop in 2023 from the prior five-year averages and a muted start in 2024. Despite this, investor demand and pricing have remained strong due to Orange County’s high barriers to entry, with average cap rates in the mid-5 percent range and several significant transactions highlighting the market this year. This includes the April sale of an El Pollo Loco in Orange for $3.8 million …

— By Brad Umansky, President & Head Coach, Progressive Real Estate Partners — Occupancy and lease rates have continued to trend higher throughout Southern California’s Inland Empire retail market as a lack of new construction combined with strong retail demand has kept vacancies near record lows. Looking ahead, factors affecting the market are 99 Cent Only’s bankruptcy, the substantial slowdown in sales activity, and the minimum wage increase to $20/hour for fast food workers.   Occupancy & Lease Rates  Occupancy is currently reported at 94.3% by Costar, but removing spaces 10,000 SF or larger, results in occupancy of 97.2% which demonstrates the lack of available shop space. In my 30+ years of working in this market, I have never seen such a lack of options for shop tenants. As a result, when shop spaces become available owners are mostly commanding a higher lease rate than what the previous tenant was paying.  99 Cent Only Bankruptcy Dominates Recent Activity Since April, when 99 Cent Only declared bankruptcy and promptly decided to liquidate all 371 stores in the chain, industry participants have been analyzing these locations. As of June 2nd, it has been determined that Dollar Tree is acquiring 170 of the …

— By Kelly Reenders — The California coastal city of Dana Point sought to redevelop its underutilized Town Center, with the goal being to create a pedestrian-friendly live-work-play neighborhood that encouraged further reinvestment and development.  Now called the Lantern District, the four-block downtown is anchored by Prado West, a three-building mixed-use complex with 109 apartments and nearly 30,000 square feet of ground-floor restaurants, shops and public outdoor space. Though the endeavor is now something the city and residents can be proud of, the project had its share of challenges. These included gaining community support for proposed changes, in addition to overcoming a leasing timeline that included a pandemic shutdown. Embracing the Local Community For Dana Point and Prado West’s developer, Raintree Partners, the solution was to embrace local entrepreneurs. Raintree recognized the value of encouraging other owners to reinvest in their properties early on as the downtown plan took shape.  This caught the attention of Max Fisher, owner of the Shwack Beach Grill, which sits across the street from Prado West. Soon enough, Fisher and his partners agreed to open HomeSlice, an Italian- and pizza-focused restaurant, in Prado West across from their existing grill. As local owners, the partners felt the …

— By Gary Baragona, Vice President of Research, Kidder Mathews — Home to an eclectic mix of local retailers, award-winning restaurants and the world’s most prestigious brands, Los Angeles has long been one of the most dynamic retail markets in the country. However, sector dynamics significantly shifted during the pandemic as retailers began to rely heavily on their online sales to stay in business and remain profitable. While consumer preferences further evolved in 2022 and 2023, there has been a noticeable slowdown in consumer spending, largely due to ongoing economic challenges, reduced buying power, decreased savings and increased credit card debt.  On the surface, overall market fundamentals within the commercial real estate retail sector appear to be relatively stable. Some key indicators illustrate market resiliency, but other trends demonstrate the recent struggles felt by the retail sector and the challenges that may lie ahead. For example, total leasing activity across the Los Angeles region was down 15 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, and down 25 percent compared to pre-COVID averages.  The total vacancy rate across Los Angeles increased to 5.3 percent during the first quarter of 2024 and has consistently hovered between 5 percent and 5.3 percent …