Office As with many markets around the country, office development in San Diego has ground to a near halt. Many projects are stalled in the pre-development phase or are just completed, but new groundbreakings are scarce. Cash flow is king, and landlords, who were happy to purchase partially vacant buildings a couple of years ago, are now eager to lease up their buildings as quickly as possible and have come to terms with the fact that they need to lower lease rates in order to do so. The average downtime for vacant space is 1 year and then some, so landlords are willing to make concessions, including more months of free rent and increased tenant improvements. Overall, tenants can expect to enjoy a 15 to 20 percent total lease value reduction compared to a year ago, and many tenants who signed at high lease rates several years ago are opting to re-structure their leases early in exchange for reduced rates. Exceeding 25 percent in vacancy, the Carlsbad submarket has been especially hard-hit by the economic downturn, mostly due to overbuilding in that area. The ever-popular Del Mar and UTC submarkets have probably fared among the best, but still hover near …
Market Reports
The traditionally strong retail leasing market on the west side of Los Angeles mirrors the trends experienced throughout the rest of the county. The last part of third quarter 2008 saw a rise in retail vacancies, which is emblematic of the ever-worsening economy as seen in the rise in bankruptcy fillings, many retail closings and shelved expansion plans. Rental rates throughout the west side have been falling by as much as 20 percent while vacancy rates have risen from 3 to 4 percent in second quarter 2008 to 5 to 7 percent. However, unlike many national landlords, there have been few reports of west side landlords aggressively seeking to renew tenants earlier than normal. Even the glamorous Beverly Hills submarket has seen this vacancy increase with properties staying on the market longer and asking rental rates slipping 10 to 15 percent. Yet it should be noted that asking rates on the famed Rodeo Drive have been between $45 and $60 per square foot per month, and even far less traveled Brighton Way has seen landlords getting more than $20 per square foot per month. The Golden Triangle should get a boost from the November 24, 2008, opening of the five-star …
The trend toward more workforce and low-income housing will be a very big part of Los Angeles’ future. Additionally, new and existing housing located near major transportation corridors will be in high demand amongst investors. The City of Los Angeles has proposed a 5-year housing plan with a $5 billion price tag to help provide more housing for those two market segments. Los Angeles apartment fundamentals are expected to have softened mildly coming into 2009, though vacancy will still be one of the lowest rates in the nation. Predictions are that the vacancy rate will have risen slightly to 4.5 percent by year-end 2008, then remain unchanged this year. The era of vacancy in the vicinity of 3 percent is not expected to return. Rent gains are decelerating from the invigorating pace of the past decade. This year, Los Angeles’ average asking rate is predicted to rise only slightly, approximately 0.7 percent, to $1,469 per month. In November, the 40,544-unit Beverly Hills submarket had an average asking rent of $1,909 per month; the Santa Monica submarket was at $2,404 per month; the 43,645-unit Wilshire/Westlake submarket at $1,308 per month; the 50,936-unit Hollywood/Silver Lake submarket at $1,468 per month; the Sherman …
What area is your expertise? Sacramento region What trends do you see presently in office development in your area? Overall construction has slowed compared to the past few years. However, there are still a number of new office projects in the pipeline, which will deliver almost 2.4 million square feet within the next 18 months. Spec development has given way to build-to-suits and pre-leasing, which will benefit vacancy rates in the current market. Who are the active office developers in your area? Jackson Properties, Panattoni Development Co., Evergreen, Harsch, and Opus West are active in our area. Please name one or two significant office developments in your area. What impact will these projects have on the market? Two high-rise, Class A buildings are under construction on Capitol Mall, delivering nearly 800,000 square feet of new office space combined. 621 Capitol Mall, aka U.S. Bank Tower, will deliver 366,000 square feet/25-stories late 2008, on behalf of David Taylor Interests. 500 Capitol Mall, owned by Tsakopoulos Investments, will provide 430,000 square feet of office space to tenants by fall 2009. While this is a significant amount of space in a short time frame, the strength of the Downtown market should be able …
What area is your expertise? Generally speaking, my expertise is in multi-tenant retail centers with a mixed-use component as well as traditional grocery anchored centers. The areas that I cover are Los Angeles and Orange County, Calif. What trends do you see presently in retail development in your area? Since land costs have risen so dramatically, the general trend that we have seen is for more vertical development with a mixed-use component. What type of retail product is doing well in your area? Urban infill projects are doing very well. The tenants are not being aggressive like they were over the last few years so the focus has moved back to the urban infill locations. What retailers are new to your area? Clearly Tesco has made a big splash in our market, which has affected the plans of many of their competitors with regards to expansion. While we hear their expansion has stalled, we still believe that it is too early to tell how their entrance in the market will affect the grocery business. Who are the active retail developers in your area? There are many, but it’s very fragmented. Caruso, and CIM are some of the bigger players but …
What area is your expertise? Sacramento Valley What trends do you see presently in retail development in your area? The retail market is experiencing declining rental rates for the first time in years. Mom and Pop retailers have virtually disappeared and national credit tenants are pulling back on expansion plans, while closing underperforming stores. The strip centers in many areas have been hit the hardest. What type of retail product is doing well in your area? Urban redevelopment projects have been the bright spot in the marketplace, particularly those that have located in underserved markets and filled by quality retail tenants. What retailers are new to your area? Boudin Bakery, The Counter Burger, Chico’s, Cold Water Creek, Orvis, New Balance, Smith & Hawkin, Sur La Table, White House|Black Market, Fresh N Easy, and CVS Pharmacy. Who are the active retail developers in your area? Donohue Schriber, Panattoni Development Co., Capital and Counties Development Group, Granite Bay Ventures, The Evergreen Company, Opus West, Peter Bollinger Investment Group, and Stonehenge Property Group. Please name one or two significant retail developments in your area. What impact will these projects have on the market? Florin Towne Centre — Florin Mall Redevelopment project. NWC of …
What area is your expertise? The west Los Angeles office market. What trends do you see presently in office development in your area? There is a dramatic tightening of the market, with rents in some specific market areas jumping by 50 percent in the last 12 months. Who are the active office developers in your area? Legacy Partners, Blackstone, Lincoln Property, and Tishman Speyer. Where is the majority of development taking place? In and around Playa vista (the Howard Hughes project) Why is this area doing well? This is not only where the greatest amount of vacant developable land is, but it is also near to LAX, as well as being central to the residential communities of both West Los Angeles, Marina del Rey, Beverly Hills, the Palos Verdes Peninsula and the beach communities. What area do you expect to be the next big development market? This market will be strong for the next 10 years because there is a sufficient supply of vacant land. What areas are doing well in terms of office leasing? The whole West Side. Which areas are struggling with office leasing? Downtown Los Angeles Please give a measure of office vacancy rates. The vacancy rate …
What area is your expertise? I currently have listings throughout the greater Sacramento area including Elk Grove, Power Inn, South Sacramento, West Sacramento, Northgate/Natomas and Rancho Cordova. What trends do you see presently in industrial development in your area? The most prevalent trend in industrial development is not to develop on speculation. Since 1999 we have averaged at least 1.9 million square feet of product in the pipeline at any given time. The current decrease in industrial development is certainly benefiting existing landlords during this time of economic softness and is playing a major role in suppressing vacancy levels. This trend was set in motion long before the economic downturn, marking the sixth consecutive quarter in which the pipeline has shrunk. What type of industrial product is doing well in your area? Second and third generation industrial properties are doing well during this downturn in the marketplace. Investors are looking for distressed properties while users are concerned with the bottom line. The price of industrial land coupled with high construction cost has made it very difficult for newer developments to pencil. Who are the active industrial developers in your area? Cable & Kilpatrick, Massie, Harsh Investments, Jackson Properties, Buzz Oates …
What area is your expertise? My specialty is in the sale of multifamily in the North Bay region San Francisco Bay Area (Marin, Sonoma, Napa and Solano Counties). What trends do you see presently in multifamily development in your area? Developers for the most part have pursued condo development in lieu of apartment development on land zoned high density residential. This is due to the huge economic value advantage condos offered over apartments. The apartment development we have seen has been concentrated in either a few very large Class A apartment assets, or affordable (tax credit and bond enhanced) or senior living. Who are the active multifamily developers in your area? Spanos, Fairfield Residential and DR Horton Please name one or two significant multifamily developments in your area. What impact will these projects have on the market? The Moore Building (79 units in Downtown Santa Rosa) and Water Street North (107 entitled apartment units in Downtown Petaluma) are two interesting projects. Neither project has or will have a significant impact on the supply of units. What is more interesting is that both projects are victims of the same problem: projects getting entitled without a market to support them. In the …
Submitted by Kitty Wallace, senior vice president with the West Los Angeles office of Sperry Van Ness. What area is your area of expertise? My area of expertise is Southern California, but for the purpose of this interview I will focus on Los Angeles County. What trends do you see presently in multifamily development in your area? The rapid escalation of construction costs has subsided and in some cases is even coming down and labor is more widely available and less expensive. Despite reduced costs, land costs have started to come down. As demand for luxury condos wane, many development sites that were once slated for condo-construction will most likely be redirected to multifamily apartment buildings or mixed-use buildings. Who are the active multifamily developers in your area? A few major multifamily developers in the area are Legacy Partners, Related Development Company, NMS Properties, JPI Development, Lowe Enterprises, Fifield Company, and JSM Development. Please name one or two significant multifamily developments in your area. What impact will these projects have on the market? One significant multifamily development is the $600 million mixed-use development on Hollywood and Vine by Legacy Partners. This project is comprised of a hotel, retail space, condominiums, …