Market Reports

Terracina-Ontario-CA

— By Shane Shafer, Managing Director, Northmarq — The Inland Empire submarkets have maintained rent increases, low vacancy rates and employment growth. Plus, unlike other Southern California markets, the IE has seen a migration into the area — not out. The population of the Inland Empire region in an average year expands by about 50,000 residents. This is the fifth largest gain among the largest 50 metros, per 2021 Census numbers. A Jobs-Rich Market Gaining Momentum Local employment showed signs of growth and resurgence, adding jobs each of the past four quarters. Year-over-year total employment increased by more than 83,000 positions, which equates to a gain of more than 5 percent. Contrast this with other markets, and you can see why the Inland Empire is on most investors’ top 10 lists for buying, and why expectations are so high for the market to have continued rental growth. The logistics sector is one of the biggest and fastest growing in the United States. These jobs have consistently grown over the past 10 years, increasing by more than 10 percent. This year, Amazon inked a record-setting 4.1-million-square-foot facility in Ontario, while companies like Target, Shopify, Best Buy, AutoZone and others also made large commitments. The …

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— By Jerry Holdner, Southern California Region Lead, Innovation & Insight, AVANT, Avison Young — The industrial market in the Inland Empire has been performing beyond what most of the industry projected over recent quarters. The region boasts a low unemployment rate of 4.2 percent, as of November 2022, which is below the anticipated 5.4 percent estimated a year ago. It is important to highlight, however, that job creation has been uneven. Leisure and hospitality jobs are still underwater, for example. The bright spot is that high-value-added jobs in a broad range of sectors like technology, software development, aerospace, scientific research, medical products and pharmaceutical development continue to grow, which bode well for the industrial sector. Here are some key market indicators, according to Avison Young’s fourth-quarter Inland Empire Industrial Insights report: • There was 38.9 million square feet of new industrial construction underway at the end of 2022. This is down 37.1 percent as compared to the end of 2021 when 28.4 million square feet was under construction.  • There was 13.9 million square feet of positive absorption in 2022, down 53.5 percent when compared to 2021’s record-high total of 29.9 million square feet of positive absorption. This represents 2.5 percent …

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— By Kyle Yocum, first vice president, and Phillip Woodford, senior vice president, CBRE — The Inland Empire office market is experiencing a rise in cost, much like all sectors and markets throughout the U.S. As tenant improvement costs continue to increase, it’s becoming more and more challenging to find win-win situations with landlords and tenants. Landlords are having to increase their TI allocations, while tenants are having to show more flexibility as it relates to working with existing space. That, or they must cover a portion of the TI costs themselves or commit to longer-term leases to help the deal pencil for the landlord.  Due to TI costs, both parties need to meet halfway and make concessions. I think one of the reasons our market has done well is that we are a smaller market. Most parties involved seem to understand the give and take needed to make deals pencil for both sides.  Concessions are entirely contingent on TI costs, with landlords offering significant amounts of free rent and slight discounts on the rental rate if the TI costs are low. If a tenant is seeking major changes to the space, landlords are staying close to or at their …

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— Brad Umansky, President, Progressive Real Estate Partners — The retail vacancy rate for the Inland Empire has dipped below 6 percent for the first time since 2008. But there is a dramatic difference between then and now. From 2006 to 2008, there was about 20 million square feet constructed, compared to only 2.8 million square feet from 2020 to 2022.  Using Costar’s data, retail rents rose 5.7 percent in the past year, which was just under the 6 percent rent growth in 2021. These are the two highest years of rent growth in the past 15 years. In my opinion, the market has regained equilibrium, which is about where we were at in 2019 before the bottom fell out the following year. The substantial development of the early 2000s required almost a decade to fully absorb. COVID then created 1.5 million square feet of negative absorption in 2020, which has all been fully absorbed, plus another 3.3 million square feet of net absorption in 2021 and 2022. The Inland Empire added more than 74,000 jobs in the past year, and the region’s population continues to grow despite the decline in California’s overall population. People are attracted to the employment opportunities, lower cost of …

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Terracina-Ontario-CA

By Guy Enriquez, Vice President, NAI Capital The market for small- to medium-sized multifamily buildings ranging from 10 to 100 units in the City of San Bernardino has experienced a severe downturn in sales transactions recently. This was caused by the rapid increase in interest rates and a disconnect between buyers and sellers on pricing expectations.  Cap rates on sales completed in the third quarter of 2022 show an increase of about 80 basis points year over year to 5.5 percent in the Inland Empire. Third-quarter 2022 sales volume in the Inland Empire fell to 15 transactions totaling $54 million. The area has been averaging 37 transactions totaling $180 million on a quarterly basis over the past four quarters. This quarter, the City of San Bernardino saw one sales transaction in this segment of the market, indicating the lack of deal volume.  While rising interest rates caused a collapse of sales volume, combined with other general economic factors, San Bernardino’s rental market has remained very strong. The city’s overall multifamily physical vacancy rate has stood at 3.2 percent throughout 2022. The average rent for a one-bedroom unit increased from $949 to $966 per unit during the first three quarters of …

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Ontario-Ranch-Business-Park-Ontario-CA

By Rick John, Executive Vice President, Ontario Branch Manager, DAUM Commercial The San Bernardino industrial market is experiencing strong market fundamentals as it’s home to 18 percent of the Inland Empire East’s nearly 245 million square feet of industrial space. The city also commands one of the highest prices per square foot across the market, exceeding $300.  Although vacancy rates for the Inland Empire East increased for the first time since the pandemic – jumping 14 basis points and ending at 1.1 percent for the third quarter – overall vacancy in San Bernardino remains historically low. In fact, it’s among the lowest in the region at 0.24 percent. This incremental increase in vacancies was primarily seen among smaller buildings, while larger buildings of 500,000 square feet or more continue to be in short supply as vacancy remains near zero. Consistent low vacancy and competition for space are encouraging large companies to pre-lease new developments in the construction pipeline. This has helped bring gross leasing activity to near pre-pandemic levels. In September, Shein signed the largest lease within the Riverside-San Bernardino metro for the quarter with plans to open a 1.8-million-square-foot distribution center that’s currently under development in Cherry Valley. Due …

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Rialto-Village-Rialto-CA

By Ryan Gast, Vice President, Ontario/Inland Empire, CBRE We are currently seeing a very strong leasing market in San Bernardino County, which is mostly driven by the amount of new housing developments in the market and the lack of new retail product being built. Tenants are hungry for the top-tier shopping centers, which has driven the vacancy rates down and rents up in a market where there seems to be a lot of uncertainty in the air. Some of the most active retail categories include the fast feeders (QSRs), gas stations and car wash groups. Discount retailers also hold great appeal, particularly due to inflation. The market has also seen an increase in activity from fitness users who stopped dead in their tracks during 2020 and 2021 due to COVID.  As active retailers go, Stater Bros, Hobby Lobby, Burlington, 99 Ranch Market, Ross and Planet Fitness have all recently inked deals in the area. Sprouts, Quick Quack, Shell, Raising Cane’s and Dutch Bros Coffee also remain active. Many of these retailers are seeking high-growth areas where there has been an influx of residential development nearby. In terms of developers, Lewis Retail, Wood Investments and Rich Development are some of the …

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By Steve Roppel, Senior Vice President, Allied Commercial Real Estate Encompassing 62 square miles, San Bernardino is the governmental seat of San Bernardino County, the largest county in the world at more than 21,000 square miles. About 86,000 people alone work within the city, per the 2020 Census. The largest industries are retail (12,280 people), transportation and warehousing (11,164 people) and health (9,603 people).  Of the six largest office buildings, only one is occupied by traditional multiple commercial tenants. The others are occupied by the county, city, courts, non-profits and the University of Loma Linda. The only large office building presently proposed is a county office building of 307,000 square feet. San Bernardino was historically a vibrant metropolitan whose image has become tarnished over the years. It is famous for its affiliation with Route 66, which runs through the city and allowed many people to emigrate to the Golden State. The first original McDonald’s restaurant – now a museum – was opened in San Bernardino in 1940. To restore the former luster and recognize the potential for San Bernardino, local governments have pulled together on several fronts. Multiple recent infrastructure improvements and redevelopments were completed and planned for San Bernardino, …

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By Mike Adams, Managing Director, Stream Realty Partners The state of office is transitioning to a desire for dynamic spaces. Tenants in the Orange County office market are gravitating toward assets that act and function like hotels. They are seeking out the newest buildings and the most unique office environments. This is evidenced through leasing activity being the strongest in the Irvine/Tustin Legacy and Irvine Spectrum submarkets.  Employers are looking for a reason to bring their workforce back to the office and are recruiting high-caliber employees. One way to do this is through office space. Creative office space is still in high demand — and won’t likely change soon. Companies focused on employee retention want to create an “Instagram-worthy” type office environment. They are looking for office space that will create a buzz and function as a recruiting tool.  Office buildings are unique assets that facilitate collaboration, culture and training. This interest in new development signifies a flight to quality of office assets — for landlords and tenants alike.  Several trends related to the desire for quality include: Hotelization — office spaces that act and function as hotels Biophilic design — the concept of connecting a building with nature Proptech — using innovative technology and …

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By Pat Swanson, Executive Vice President, Colliers Orange County Lack of supply remains most evident in the Orange County multifamily market, with vacancies trending near historic lows at 2.3 percent. As supply dwindles, we have seen the pressure felt by investors to ramp up and hunt for the elusive value-add opportunities in this marketplace. Many profit hunters actively seek properties with upside in rent, accessory dwelling unit (ADU) potential and inadequacies as part of the existing management.  A recent example is a 12-unit, single-story Garden Grove asset on a large parcel of land that was purchased below replacement cost. The Florida-based seller operated and managed the building remotely and desired to move his assets closer to home. Due to the long-distance operations, the local buyer felt they could control the property more efficiently by adding improvements to generate higher rents, while also taking advantage of the open spaces that could accommodate additional ADU units. This was a perfect fit for both parties, and we were able to execute the deal. It shows the type of value-add complex that has become highly sought after. Like the investors who flocked to Garden Grove, similar buyers have reevaluated their wants for quality Class A …

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