Market Reports

Grocery Chains and Other Retail Categories are Making Hay in Mid-Atlantic Region

by John Nelson January 11, 2022

The Washington, D.C., and Baltimore markets, when combined, represent the fourth-largest metropolitan region in the nation by population, and retailers are taking notice again. Grocery-anchored projects are the most prevalent in the headlines. For example, the first of nearly 20 Amazon Fresh locations has opened in the area. Additionally, Wegmans’ smaller format rollout plan is active with its first location in Stonebridge’s Carlyle Crossing in Alexandria opening spring 2022, along with Roadside Development’s City Ridge Project at the former Fanny Mae Headquarters in Northwest D.C. Former Shoppers Food Warehouse boxes also continue to get absorbed by new grocers. A less-covered sector of the grocery market is the international markets category, which remains very active in the region. There are 29 different banners across the region that exceed 10,000 square feet in size, with the newest entrant being Oh! Markets in Northern Virginia. Other international market newcomers, including 99Ranch and Enson Market, are also searching for space. With the immense ethnic diversity of the region, we expect investors to start taking notice of this sector with their acquisition appetite, just as they have in other regions like Texas and Florida. Publix, a customer favorite, is in the early stages of identifying …

January 11, 2022

District of Columbia Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Mid-Atlantic is Where Labor, Ports and Transportation Infrastructure Intersect

by John Nelson November 15, 2021

Speaking at the Port of Baltimore on Nov. 10, President Joe Biden touted the now passed $1 trillion infrastructure bill as a “once-in-a-generation investment” designed to help us push past the COVID-19 pandemic. The $17 billion earmarked specifically for port improvements is welcome news as on Nov. 15, the day the bill was signed, 90 container ships carrying goods valued at $85 billion were still waiting to dock off the coast of California. Throughout the pandemic, the transportation infrastructure and labor supply for the East Coast and the Mid-Atlantic specifically have demonstrated efficiency and productivity. The two main ports — the Port of Virginia and Port of Baltimore — processed record container volumes of imports and exports through cargo ship, rail and barge at record “turn times” of under one hour, meeting and overcoming many of the challenges within the supply chain. Connecting the dots As we approach the 2021 gift-giving season and beyond, it is crucial to focus on the “why I should care” factor. The Port of Virginia for example, which by 2024 will be the only 55-foot-deep port on the East Coast, experiences cargo movements that occur 64 percent by truck, which is nearly double the next …

November 15, 2021

District of Columbia Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

D.C. Area’s Industrial Market Reports Strong Health Despite Pandemic

by John Nelson February 15, 2021

Nearly three full quarters into the COVID-19 pandemic, no real estate asset class in the Washington, D.C., metro area has shown less macro-level distress than the industrial market. In fact, the industrial market may have actually benefited from the pandemic. Despite the immediate drop in demand and activity that resulted in the second quarter, the metro industrial market has bounced back and posted positive gains in both leasing activity and new construction. No other asset class can claim that in the D.C. area. Much of the industrial activity is centered in Northern Virginia, but Suburban Maryland has remained healthy as well. At the end of the third quarter, the overall vacancy rate for warehouse/logistics space, flex and service center industrial buildings stood at 6.2 percent. Unlike many industrial markets, the Washington, D.C., MSA is a service economy with more than 260 million square feet of space. Early industrial development around the Capital Beltway/Interstate 495 served to support an ever-growing population base driven by the federal government and its contractors. This, however, has changed in the past decade, with high-tech companies entering and dominating the market. Fueling D.C.’s healthy market is its high barrier to entry. Much of the development that …

February 15, 2021

District of Columbia Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

D.C.’s Multifamily Market is Poised for a Quicker Than Average Bounce Back in 2021

by John Nelson February 8, 2021

Like many other markets across the country, the Washington, D.C., multifamily market was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Vacancy is up and asking rents are down. However, Washington’s unique renter class, made up heavily of students and young professionals, and the region’s main economic drivers will fuel a quick post-COVID-19 recovery. As we close out 2020, multifamily investors have reason to remain confident in a quick bounceback in 2021. Once the virus hit, many offices switched to a remote work environment, and many of the local universities switched to remote learning. We know that this fueled an exodus of renters from the city to their parents’ basements, to greener pastures in the suburbs or to areas with a lower cost of living. At one of our market-rate listings in a core neighborhood of Northwest D.C., property managers reported an immediate 10-basis-point increase in vacancies the day that George Washington University closed its campus for the fall 2020 semester. Entering the fourth quarter, the Washington MSA recorded the highest vacancy rate on record, breaking 6 percent for the first time, according to research from CoStar Group. Average asking rents are down approximately 3 percent this year, and the pain is …

February 8, 2021

District of Columbia Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Pandemic Hits Retail Investment Sales in D.C., But Signs of Revival Start to Show

by John Nelson December 22, 2020

The retail investment sales market in the Washington, D.C.-Baltimore metro area, just like the rest of the United States, has been detrimentally impacted by COVID-19. Multi-tenant retail investment markets have essentially shut down, sellers and buyers are unable to come to pricing conclusions and most investment opportunities have shifted into urban areas that are experiencing more immediate distress. As COVID-19 cases continue to spike, and with further tightening of lockdown policy likely forthcoming, this trend will continue as the restaurant and entertainment industry bears the brunt of winter. This will present investors with the opportunity to purchase fundamentally solid urban real estate at a discount as the market for larger shopping centers waits to reset. It comes as no surprise that shopping center investment sales are anemic. Over the trailing three months in the D.C.-Baltimore area, there has been a paltry $49 million in sales volume across three transactions for retail centers exceeding $10 million. This compared to $196 million across nine transactions in the same period last year, a 75 percent decrease in volume. Further, of these transactions, two of them — Bel Air Town Center, purchased by JCR Cos. for $21 million, and Hagerstown Shopping Center, purchased by …

December 22, 2020

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D.C.’s Tax Rate Maze: An Imperfect System Has Increased Property Taxes for Many Real Estate Owners

by John Nelson June 15, 2020

By Sydney Bardouil, Esq. If you own or manage real property in the District of Columbia and are wondering why your real estate tax bill has gone up in recent years, you are not alone. One common culprit is rising assessed value, but that may not be the main or only source of an increase. A less obvious contributor may be a new, different, or incorrect tax rate. Since tax rates vary greatly depending on a property’s use, staying diligent when it comes to your real estate’s tax class and billed rate is critical. The District of Columbia applies differing tax rates to residential, commercial, mixed-use, vacant and blighted properties. Why is this important? Because the classification can make a considerable difference in annual tax liability – even for two properties with identical assessment values. For example, a multifamily complex assessed at $20 million incurs a tax liability of $170,000 per year while the same property, if designated as blighted, incurs an annual tax liability almost twelve times greater at $2 million. Therefore, the assessed value is just one piece of the puzzle. Keeping a sharp eye on a property’s tax bill for the accuracy of any tax rate changes …

June 15, 2020

Washington and North Virginia Rent Occupancy Graph

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Washington’s Tech Boom Changes the Multifamily Investment Calculus

by Sarah Daniels March 3, 2020

Washington and Northern Virginia are among the nation’s most expensive places to rent an apartment, which in part explains the billions of dollars being spent on apartment construction there. But Capital Area asset returns in the post-recession era haven’t clearly supported these decisions. From 2013 to 2018, rents in Washington and NoVA increased at respective compound annual rates of 3.2 percent and 2.6 percent, tabulating Reis data, materially slower than the 4.7 percent average growth recorded by the 50 largest U.S. apartment markets. Likewise, occupancy trends were no better than average, muted by heavy supply, suggesting that Washington NOI growth in most cases was measurably slower than in alternative markets. But everything changed last year. Although Washington has been a technology player for decades, the region’s strengths fell primarily in telecom and defense, markets in which proximity to government was a competitive advantage. But the region’s growing prowess in private applications of digital technology reached critical mass in 2019 with Amazon’s decision to site its East Coast headquarters in Northern Virginia, specifically with a view toward tapping its deep reservoir of high-tech talent. The impact on economic growth in the capital is only beginning and seems likely to fundamentally alter …

March 3, 2020

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Investment Demand Leveling off for D.C. Office Sector as Leasing Stays Lackluster

by Alex Tostado January 6, 2020

The office market in metropolitan Washington, D.C., is currently differentiated between a vigorous investment sales market and anemic leasing fundamentals. According to data from CoStar Group and Cushman & Wakefield, office investment sales have averaged $8.4 billion annually from 2014 to 2018 versus $5.5 billion annually from 2008 to 2013. Investment sales in the District have been dominated by Class A and trophy assets with little leasing risk, while demand is buoyed by foreign capital sources. In Northern Virginia, sales have trended toward core-plus and value-add investments led by domestic buyers seeking additional yield. Investors are more comfortable with leasing risk in Northern Virginia due to its robust job growth, a trend likely to continue given the jurisdiction’s comparative advantages in cloud computing, cybersecurity and internet infrastructure. Amazon’s selection of Crystal City for HQ2 and Amazon Web Services’ large block leasing in the Dulles Toll Road corridor are emblematic of these larger regional trends. However, there are signs that investment demand may have peaked for the current cycle. This year’s sales volume is the weakest in several years despite an influx of closings in September to beat Washington, D.C.’s increase to the transfer and recordation taxes from 2.9 percent to …

January 6, 2020

District of Columbia Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

D.C. a Hotspot for Multifamily Investors, Lenders as Absorption Ticks Up

by Alex Tostado December 30, 2019

Driven by increasing high-paying jobs, billions of dollars in public and private investment and healthy population growth, the Washington, D.C., metro area boasts a dynamic multifamily market with rebounding rent growth and stabilizing occupancy rates. Washington, D.C., gained 20,500 jobs in June and another 13,000 jobs in July, according to the District of Columbia Department of Employment Services. Additionally, D.C.’s population topped 700,000 for the first time since 1975. The Washington metropolitan area’s total population has climbed to more than 6 million, and more households mean more demand for apartments. These strong fundamentals have led to increased rent growth in the apartment sector. D.C.’s average net asking rate is $1,990 — up 1.7 percent, making it the sixth-fastest rent growth in the United States, according to Reis. The net asking rate increased for 10 consecutive quarters. Between now and year-end 2020, asking rents are expected to climb 2.5 percent and 3.6 percent by year-end 2021, Reis notes. The District’s apartment occupancy rate is currently 94 percent. In nearby suburban Maryland, rents rose 1.2 percent, and in Northern Virginia, 1.4 percent. Demand, supply in balance Although there was concern over an influx of new construction, multifamily product has been well-absorbed. The …

December 30, 2019

District of Columbia Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Historic Level of Demand Meets Low Availability in Metro D.C. Industrial Market

by Alex Tostado December 23, 2019

As online shopping and a stack of newly delivered boxes by the door have become common in many American households, the behind-the-scenes institutional supports that make these habits possible have transformed the country’s real estate markets. The booming demand for data centers and last-mile staging for e-commerce is driving steady interest in industrial spaces, which shows no sign of waning. Since 2009, the industrial market has experienced 767 percent growth across the United States, surpassing retail to become the third ranked commercial real estate product type by sales volume. This sustained demand is outpacing limited availability, compressing capitalization rates to historic lows. In the metro Washington, D.C., area, there are a number of unique factors that contribute to this trend. High urban property values in the District itself have led to the conversion of a significant percentage of available warehouse space to other uses over the last decade, pushing industrial development into neighboring areas of Northern Virginia and Prince George’s County, Maryland. Many of the sites most easily suited for industrial purposes have already been developed, leaving higher barriers to entry and very few new options. As commercial businesses and government agencies adopt increasingly sophisticated technologies — like cloud computing, …

December 23, 2019

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