Market Reports

Moderating Industrial Growth Can’t Stop Miami’s Enduring Appeal

by John Nelson June 3, 2024

By Ben Eisenberg of Transwestern In 2023 and continuing into 2024, Miami’s industrial sector experienced moderate growth due to reduced lease turnover and despite accelerating interest rates and economic uncertainty. However, the market’s strong industrial fundamentals and international connectivity via Miami International Airport and PortMiami continue to demonstrate its enduring strength and resilience. Miami’s industrial market is powered by freight, logistics and e-commerce demand, along with traditional distribution, service and light assembly. The region continues to experience steady population growth that drives sustainable consumption of goods and services and, ultimately, the need for warehouse space. Accounting for nearly 27 percent of Florida’s overall population, Miami was home to more than 6.2 million people at the end of 2023 and is projected to grow to 6.3 million this year. The region’s population has expanded by nearly 7.6 percent over the past 10 years. Increased migration to the Sun Belt has boosted wealth, disposable income and consumption, making Miami one of the nation’s wealthiest metro areas, with some of the highest average home values. In the first quarter of 2024, Miami’s unemployment rate reached a record low of 1.5 percent and has remained below 2 percent since the fourth-quarter 2022. The region’s …

June 3, 2024

Florida Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Miami Multifamily Market Holds Steady Despite Challenging Market Conditions

by John Nelson May 29, 2024

Miami’s multifamily sector was on fire from the end of 2020 through the beginning of 2023 as the market received a wave of newcomers, primarily from affluent Northeastern and Western states. During the height of the pandemic, roughly $1 out of every $6 in income that moved nationwide relocated to Florida, more than any other state. And Miami-Dade County saw the second highest inflows of any county in the country behind only Palm Beach, two counties to the north of Miami-Dade. This influx resulted in tremendous rent growth, booming new development and record-setting sales. The period also marked dozens of corporate expansions and relocations to the area and a consistent sub-3 percent unemployment rate dating back to August 2022, which is below today’s 3.8 percent national rate. Since then, things have slowed down, though the epic in-migration of wealth has made a permanent impact. Miami’s multifamily fundamentals stand out as a beacon of resilience amid supply challenges across the Sun Belt. Infill rents have remained flat since 2022, notching slight increases in 2024, and occupancy has faltered only slightly. This is rarely celebrated, but in this case, it represents Miami’s unique strength. Demand also emerged for a higher caliber of …

May 29, 2024

Florida Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Retail Rents Rise in South Florida as Demand Continues to Outpace Supply

by John Nelson May 20, 2024

The retail sector in South Florida is undergoing adjustments that reflect the region’s dynamic economic landscape and evolving consumer preferences. One notable trend is evident in the restaurant sector, where owners increasingly aim to expand by opening new locations and entering lucrative markets. This trend is primarily driven by consumer spending, particularly the continual growth of Miami’s tourism industry. Visitors directly inject capital into the local economy, leading to increased disposable income that often circulates back through experiential commerce such as restaurant sales. A clear indicator of the local market’s strength is the ongoing rise in rental asking rates, significantly surpassing national averages. A robust 4.6 percent upturn in asking rent this year, as reported by CoStar Group, demonstrates retailers’ ability not just to survive but to thrive in a market with elevated asking prices compared to the rest of the state. This upward trend in rent is accompanied by a low 2.8 percent vacancy rate, according to CoStar data, indicating a competitive landscape where profitable lease opportunities are increasingly scarce for tenants. The retail sector within the restaurant industry continues to thrive, showing significant activity and heightened interest. The influx of high-net-worth individuals and a post-pandemic resurgence in immigration …

May 20, 2024

Florida Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Strong Office Sector Helps Propel Miami’s Multifamily Market

by John Nelson October 30, 2023

While many cities grapple with a declining population, softening rents and a struggling office market, Miami is riding a wave of population growth and apartment demand. This stems from the usual factors — sun, lifestyle and low taxes — as well as something unprecedented: an influx of large office users. New-to-market office tenants are transforming Miami’s economy and helping offset the challenges of inflation and rising interest rates. Miami multifamily fundamentals remain strong, with plenty of liquidity in the market. Our economy is more diversified than ever, and this has made it one of the most desirable markets in the country. Supply and demand People and businesses fleeing states with higher taxes and longer pandemic restrictions helped fuel Miami’s population surge between 2020 and 2022 and led to record-breaking rent growth during that period. Miami has become a magnet for large financial and tech firms, with well-heeled companies like Starwood Property Trust, Citadel Securities, BlockChain and Blackstone Group taking new office space. All told, a record 57 companies relocated or expanded to Miami-Dade County last year. Between May 2022 and May 2023, Miami added over 83,000 jobs, more than a 4 percent increase. Miami’s unemployment rate as of May 2023 …

October 30, 2023

Florida Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Increasing Rental Rates, Record Construction Define Orlando’s Industrial Market

by John Nelson October 2, 2023

Orlando’s industrial market continues to maintain strong market fundamentals. Despite leasing activity temporarily softening at the midway point of 2023 compared to the end of second-quarter 2022, exceptionally low vacancy rates persist, putting upward pressure on asking rental rates and further strengthening developer confidence in the market. With its strategic locational advantages and diverse tenant mix, the sector is well-positioned for future growth. According to Florida Commerce, Orlando’s unemployment rate is 2.6 percent, well below the national rate of 3.6 percent. Labor shortages remain, as jobs increased by 5,300 in the industrial-using sector and 6,200 in trade, transportation, and utilities. At the same time, Central Florida’s population growth — along with the state’s business-friendly conditions, from no state income tax to relative affordability — consistently spurs demand for e-commerce logistics and warehousing throughout the region. Asking rates surge Year-to-date industrial leasing volume in Orlando has been 4.4 million square feet, 2.4 million square feet of which was in the second quarter. Total vacancy stood at 3.5 percent in the second quarter, significantly lower than the national vacancy rate of 5.4 percent. The average asking rate for industrial properties in Orlando was $10.77 triple-net per square foot, reflecting a 5.4 percent …

October 2, 2023

Florida Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Supply-Demand for Central Florida’s Retail Market Is Well-Balanced

by John Nelson September 25, 2023

The demand for retail space throughout Central Florida has been extremely high as new concepts are moving into the marketplace due to the mass exoduses from New York City and California. With the major population shift, we are running into the issue of limited supply to lease. Vacancy rates are currently projected at 3.8 percent, which is approximately 100 basis points below the 10-year historical average. Vacancy rates are projected to meet the mid-4 percent range by the end of 2023 due to the expected completion of more than 700,000 square feet of retail space during the fourth quarter, according to research from CoStar Group. Some developers are backing out of ground-up development deals due to the heightened labor and construction costs that every firm is experiencing. However, there are still some notable developments occurring in certain trade areas such as Minneola, Lake Nona, Apopka (Kelly Park) and Davenport, which are just some of the areas with projects expected to deliver in the fourth quarter of this year. These new ground-up projects require lessees to pay a higher rent to make these deals pencil out. The current average asking rate in Orlando is $27.77 per square foot, well ahead of …

September 25, 2023

Florida Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Orlando Tenants Are Attracted to Quality Office Space as Rental Rates Rise

by John Nelson September 18, 2023

The Orlando office market saw improved office activity in the second quarter after a somewhat slow start to the year. Quarter-over-quarter, the average deal size rose by 11.2 percent with Downtown, South Orlando and East Orlando as the three submarkets benefitting from an increase in office leasing activity. The majority of institutional landlords in downtown Orlando are some of the early adopters of flight-to-quality phenomenon, and as a result, tenants from other submarkets have shifted their focus to the city’s Central Business District (CBD). On the other hand, South Orlando enjoys a built-in advantage of having perhaps the greatest number of restaurant options in the greater Orlando area, with easy access to both Sand Lake Road and Millenia Mall areas offering various food options. The need to be co-located with some of the military branches located in Central Florida Research Park drives many simulation and military/defense sector tenants to seek office space in East Orlando, also providing nearby access to the University of Central Florida. Aside from geographical location, more and more tenants are seeking out higher-quality office space while rightsizing their footprint. This is predominantly fueled by flex/remote office schedules combined with the need for employers to provide an …

September 18, 2023

Florida Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Orlando Finds Strength as One of Nation’s Top Multifamily Markets

by John Nelson September 11, 2023

Orlando remains one of the strongest multifamily markets nationally despite the slowdown being experienced in commercial real estate at large. Its strength is largely defined by growth in rent, supply, upcoming development opportunities, employment and the local economy, which have all contributed to healthy fundamentals. Being a top U.S. tourism destination has also helped with more than 74 million visitors coming to Orlando in 2022. Local tourism has created 212,000 jobs as of year-end 2021, and the city is home to nine world-renowned theme parks that are frequented by tourists. Orlando has also proven to be a very attractive and viable place to live long-term. The city is the fourth-largest in Florida, with an estimated population of more than 312,200 in 2023 and over 2 million within the metropolitan statistical area (MSA). The area’s population growth has supported multifamily growth opportunities, ensuring there is a vast renter pool and demand for the inventory that continues to be delivered. That has propelled rent growth up with submarkets like Colonial Town and Florida Center North, which are still posting year-over-year increases between 10 and 16 percent, significantly higher than the national average. Overall supply has also held up well with 6,103 units …

September 11, 2023

Florida Market Reports Restaurant Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Six Trends to Watch for Central Florida’s Growing, Evolving Retail Market

by John Nelson August 7, 2023

Central Florida retail is alive, well and growing, thanks in large part to Florida’s continuing resilience to the nation’s economic challenges. Thousands of people are moving to the state each week, the Orlando area’s economy continues to diversify beyond tourism and residents continue to show confidence with their retail spending. That said, there are significant challenges facing new retail developments, due to the cost of construction and other inflationary pressures. We expect this to be a major issue for the rest of this year, and it will require thoughtful planning for everyone involved in these projects. As we look at the remainder of 2023, we see two big takeaways: • For brick-and-mortar retail, it’s important for developers and owners to bring in concepts that are new and fresh. In some cases, this involves established retailers getting creative with their spaces, like what Macy’s is doing with its new Market by Macy’s concept, which uses a smaller footprint than traditional Macy’s stores. • To make new retail developments happen, developers, landlords and tenants need to be inventive in how they structure deals, whether it’s sharing in construction cost overages or giving tenants more time to get their spaces ready. With that …

August 7, 2023

Florida Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Miami Continues to See Flight to Class A Offices Amid Record Rental Rates

by John Nelson June 26, 2023

A wave of new-to-market office tenants — specifically legal tenants following the influx of financial firms and tech companies — continue to expand their presence in Miami. The trend further solidifies the city’s spot as a top destination for companies seeking reduced taxes, strong talent and vibrant communities. Looking back at the first quarter of 2023, net absorption totaled over 81,000 square feet (compared to 76,000 square feet in the first quarter of 2022), marking the third-highest quarterly total since 2020. Most leasing activity occurred in the Central Business District (CBD) and in Class A product in Wynwood and Coral Gables as tenants continue to lease high-quality space. However, the lack of availability in quality product, as well as the overall economic uncertainty, has led to a slowdown in leasing volume to start 2023 — particularly among new-to-market tenants. Leasing activity totaled 750,000 square feet in the first quarter compared to 1.5 million in fourth-quarter 2022. The quarter closed with a 16.3 percent vacancy rate, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. Class A availability fell 260 basis points to 21.1 percent year-over-year with the largest drops recorded in downtown Miami, which fell 540 basis …

June 26, 2023

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