Market Reports

Tenant, Investor Demand Propels South Florida’s Multifamily Market to New Peak

by John Nelson May 31, 2022

Miami’s multifamily market slowed down dramatically at the start of COVID-19 and now has quickly rebounded to record levels. Collections and occupancies are excellent, new supply is quickly absorbed, population/household growth is on fire, the job market has largely rebounded, wages are up, home prices are at record levels — meaning more people are renting — and limited land is keeping construction in balance. Going forward, the market is ideally positioned for continued long-term growth thanks to positive market fundamentals and continued strong sales activity. Demand for rentals was strong pre-pandemic and will grow even greater in the post COVID-19 era as South Florida continues to increase its resident count. Between 2020 and 2021, South Florida added 42,842 residents, including 14,318 new residents in Miami-Dade County. With the influx of residents, South Florida is expected to have over 37,000 new households created each year over the next five years. That represents over 14,800 new renters per year, assuming 60 percent of households enter homeownership and 40 percent rent, which is in line with historical ratios. Record year for sales 2021 was a record-setting year for the South Florida multifamily market. The region experienced 603 multifamily sales totaling $11.4 billion, which …

May 31, 2022

Florida Life Sciences Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Orlando Retail Market Experiencing Record Investor Demand and Pricing

by John Nelson October 18, 2021

As COVID-19 took hold in early 2020, the Orlando retail market only saw a modest dip in fundamentals where metro-wide rental rates fell by 5 percent and occupancy dropped 100 basis points during the second and third quarters. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2020, rental and occupancy rates began an extraordinarily strong comeback, climbing 12 percent and 140 basis points, respectively, from the COVID-19 lows. According to data from CoStar Group, the metro’s average rental rate of $15.84 per square foot in the second quarter is more than 7 percent higher than the pre-pandemic peak. And occupancy rates are 40 basis point higher than the pre-COVID-19 peak, currently standing at 96.4 percent. With escalating land prices and shortages in raw materials and labor, we anticipate overall construction costs will continue to increase, stalling deliveries and further advancing rental and occupancy rates. Last year, some retail owners (sellers) and investors (buyers) focused on asset management within their portfolios and reevaluated the perceived investment risk due to the pandemic, which caused a sharp dropoff in 2020 investment activity, despite an abundance of capital available to invest. After a couple quarters of fundamentals bottoming out, owners and investors had confidence in their …

October 18, 2021

Florida Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Metro Orlando Office Market Caught in Limbo Due to COVID-19, Remote Workforce

by John Nelson October 11, 2021

Contrary to what is often portrayed in the national media, the Orlando office market is not a monolith. It instead comprises multiple submarkets, many of which are recovering quite differently. For example, according to data from CoStar Group, Winter Park had a 4.7 percent availability rate (that’s direct and sublease space combined). The Downtown Orlando market, on the other hand, had a rate of 16.9 percent. The total Orlando MSA office availability rate was 11.5 percent, which compares to the national rate of 16 percent. All of these numbers just prove that the recovery from the pandemic is uneven, even in areas in close proximity. It’s easy to get lost in analysis, but the basic answer is that the office market in Orlando, just like in the entire country, will recover in time. Not all areas will be on the same timeline, and the office market will never look entirely the same. Between working from home and companies deciding to relocate their offices or headquarters entirely, there will be some short-term winners and losers. Texas, for instance, is having a relative boom in new tenants. Los Angeles, and indeed California in general, on the other hand, is not. Many companies …

October 11, 2021

Florida Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

By the Numbers: Orlando’s Industrial Fundamentals Remain Strong

by John Nelson October 4, 2021

Orlando’s industrial market emerged from the early panic of 2020 in solid shape, and both occupier and investment activity have continued in earnest ever since. While the preceding year has brought its share of pandemic-induced challenges to the Orlando market, the industrial sector itself has not been adversely affected, other than by labor shortages and the escalating prices of construction materials for new development. Sector fundamentals remain strong, with healthy leasing and positive net absorption of space, robust tenant activity and continued speculative development that is focused primarily along the 429 Corridor and in the Orlando Central Park and Airport/Southeast submarkets. Economic fundamentals are also sound. The unemployment rate in Orlando as of June 2021 was 6 percent, down an impressive 1,300 basis points from the height of pandemic unemployment in May 2020. Oxford Economics projects that Orlando is expected to see job growth of 2.1 percent in 2021, 9.1 percent in 2022 and should recover all of its lost jobs by third-quarter 2022, a majority of which are in the leisure and hospitality sector. Central Florida is the state’s fastest-growing region, and the U.S. Census Bureau expects its growth to outpace South Florida by a factor of two to …

October 4, 2021

Florida Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Miami’s Restaurants are Back on Track, Entertainment and Big Box Users are Still Healing

by John Nelson August 2, 2021

What a difference a year makes! Retail real estate in Miami is not dead nor in the depths of huge vacancy rates and declining rents; current vacancy rate is 4.3 percent and rental rates have slipped by 0.1 percent over the past year. Let’s explore several indicators of the value and use of the current state of the shopping center industry, restaurant space, entertainment space and big-box retailers. South Florida restaurant space, due to COVID-19 restrictions, was not open to customers over the last 18 months. Many anticipated only a few restaurants to survive with lots of second-generation restaurant space expected to be given back to landlords. Due to the U.S. Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program and restaurateurs flocking to Miami from across the country — mainly the Northeast, especially New York City — the glut of restaurant space vacancy never occurred. When there is available second-generation restaurant space, it gets leased quickly. South Florida has seen national chain quick-service restaurants (QSR) looking for ghost kitchens which restricts customers to pick-up and delivery. Restaurant sales are back to pre-COVID-19 levels beginning the second quarter this year. The restaurant market appears to be healthy, again. News is not so great …

August 2, 2021

Florida Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Miami Office Rent Growth Influenced by Influx of Tech Firms, New Capital Sources

by John Nelson July 25, 2021

The past year has been a long and winding ride, and some unexpected trends have been taking place in the Miami office market, between the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and through its recovery to date. Logically, one would expect that an ongoing pandemic keeping corporate offices closed and employees working from home would negatively affect occupancy levels and lead to a deceleration in asking rents for office space. On the contrary, the Miami office market has remained solid, and while the area is a natural draw for tourism and entertainment, an increasing number of companies also recognize it as a sought-after location from which to operate their businesses. Tech’s influence on rents Miami has been one of the most active office markets in the nation thus far in 2021. While office markets in the Northeast and California remain partly closed due to several public health initiatives and related business constraints, Miami’s pro-business culture — coupled with Florida’s lack of state income taxes and business development efforts rolled out by Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and the Miami-Dade County Beacon Council — have ensured that the city’s economic engine kept running. Case in point, not only did Class A rental rates …

July 25, 2021

Florida Market Reports Multifamily Southeast Southeast Market Reports

South Florida’s Reliable, Robust Apartment Market is a Safe Haven for Investors

by John Nelson July 18, 2021

South Florida multifamily fundamentals are, and will continue to be, the single biggest driver of performance in the market. Strong rent collection and occupancy performance through the pandemic, population and household growth, low homeownership rates, increasingly expensive home prices, an improving job market, higher wage growth, limited land and a wonderful lifestyle all contribute toward sustainable long-term growth. Demand for multifamily rentals will increase post COVID-19 as South Florida becomes a hotbed of population growth from people migrating from other states due to the business-friendly environment and tele-workers who are choosing South Florida as their new home. In fact, household formations in South Florida are expected to increase more than 44,000 each year over the next five years. Assuming this projection materializes, at 60 percent homeownership rate (consistent with historic homeownership rates) represents over 17,000 new renters per year in South Florida. Investment sales skyrocket In the span of less than 12 months, the South Florida multifamily market went from near-record sales activity to virtually none before rebounding again to close the year. Last year ended with 254 multifamily sales totaling $3.1 billion. Despite almost six months of virtually no investment activity from April through September, total sales volume was …

July 18, 2021

Florida Industrial Market Reports Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Industrial Supply, E-Commerce Demand Create Recipe for Orlando’s Silver Lining

by Alex Tostado October 19, 2020

For years, “just in time” has been the key to driving efficiency of retailers and manufacturers alike. This model by and large combined low-cost production in Asian markets supported by speedy air carrier distribution to move goods while holding minimal cushion for backup stock. Post-pandemic thinking could bring that epoch to an end. The crisis has underscored our distribution networks’ fragility, which are now vulnerable to closed facilities, ports and borders. Many businesses are planning major restructuring of their supply chain processes due to the disruptions that we all have endured in recent months. The new model based on quick recovery will likely be driven by resiliency that ensures adequate merchandise availability in the event of threats to a business’ supply chain stability. This will require more warehouse and distribution space to store goods for deliveries in last-mile markets. The noticeable effects continue to grow as more last-mile oriented warehouse space is leased closer to the end-user. Industrial users see the impact of the pandemic as a short-term challenge that is altering the long-term growth strategy of their corporate planning. By way of example, Publix’s Southeast store sales climbed 21.8 percent for the second quarter of this year. Grocery now …

October 19, 2020

Florida Market Reports Retail Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Pandemic May Lead to Opportunities for Orlando’s Most Resilient Retailers

by Alex Tostado October 12, 2020

For the Orlando retail market, which relies heavily on Central Florida’s $75 billion tourism industry, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been twofold. Not only has the local consumer base begun relying more heavily on online shopping and home-cooked meals, but the number of out-of-state and international visitors who typically travel to Central Florida for its renowned theme parks and attractions has plummeted. Statewide, Florida’s tourism industry suffered an estimated 60.5 percent drop in visitors during the year’s second quarter, with international travel down more than 90 percent, according to Visit Florida. Submarkets built around Walt Disney World, the Orange County Convention Center and Universal Orlando, such as International Drive, the U.S. Highway 192 Corridor and Celebration, have taken an especially hard hit. Many restaurants designed around a sit-down experience will not recover. Although creative solutions are in action, sidewalk seating and ghost kitchens can only generate so much revenue to recover restaurants’ already razor-thin margins. But out of the slump have come opportunities for some retailers to shine, whether they’ve adapted their business model or already happened to have pandemic-resistant infrastructure in place. Further, as the winners and losers of COVID-19-era retail become clear, retailers and restaurants that …

October 12, 2020

Florida Market Reports Office Southeast Southeast Market Reports

Orlando Office Market Remains Strong with Pent-Up Capital Poised for Play

by Alex Tostado October 5, 2020

Economic health at the start of 2020 set a foundation for Orlando’s office market that remains in a good position despite headwinds caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally, the United States saw its longest-running period of economic growth before non-essential business was paused. Even with the slowdown in tourism, Orlando continues to see an uptick in local economy-boosting sectors, including defense and technology. Additionally, an increasing number of companies and individuals in the Northeast have eyes on Florida to escape denser urban markets and high state and local taxes, which bodes well for the Central Florida region. Fundamentals stay firm The pandemic significantly curbed a lot of new office leasing activity in Orlando in 2020. However, rents have not experienced a measurable decline to date. As of the second quarter, the total average rental rate was $24.92 full-service. Landlords are generally being patient and are not lowering rents or offering above-market concessions when negotiating new deals. Asking rents will likely stay flat for the coming months until the broader economy kickstarts again or the anticipated new sublease space hits the market and compels landlords to be more competitive. Total net office absorption for the Orlando area posted a negative …

October 5, 2020

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